With only a few days left in the election I feel I can say with supreme certainty that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States of America. I don't think there is anything John McCain or his campaign can do at this point to get 270 electoral votes. The only thing the GOP can hope for is some sort of major terrorist attack and if anyone is actually hoping for that in order to win an election then they don't deserve the office in the first place.

The only uncertainty at this point is how big the Obama victory will be. I'd say this map is definitely one of the more optimistic outcomes for Obama but certainly not what his absolute best could be. At worst, Obama will retain all Kerry states and add Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico to his total but I think that is exceedingly unlikely. I think its highly probable that he will end the night with over 300 electoral votes. I'd say that the map I have pictured above has a 30-40% chance of actually happening which is simply a reflection of my optimism.

Post Conventions the battlegrounds have come into clearer focus and Democratic talk of winning the Dakotas, Alaska, Georgia, and South Carolina is now a pipe dream for sure. Montana and North Carolina are probably also headed down that path but I'll keep them leaners for a bit longer. As for the Republicans, I don't think they have a realistic shot at a lot of the states they seem to think are competitive such as Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and Pennsylvania.

My confidence is wavering a bit in Michigan mostly due to the Kilpatrick scandal and how that might affect Democratic enthusiasm as well as independents. New Hampshire and New Mexico are traditional swing states that seem to be holding their leftward trend for the moment. Obama seems to be holding his own in Colorado which is a state where I think they'll be a big Democratic swing this year.

Perennial swing states Florida and Ohio are once again back in the limelight but I think McCain has an advantage in both. Nevada is very difficult to predict due to its surging population but I think Obama has a good shot there. Virginia continues to be the most interesting state to watch IMO and I'm hoping it goes for Obama in the end.

Here is my tentative Obama vs. McCain map.

I wanted to make a McCain v. Hillary map before the caucuses started just so I could have one map based on my predicted primary victors. I have Clinton winning just because I think Democrats will still have the edge going into 2008. However I think McCain would have a legitimate shot in New Mexico, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. In my scenario he would need two of those states to win though which is another reason I have Clinton winning.

I moved Michigan, Colorado, and Louisiana into the leans category. I think the whole primary debacle could create an opening for Republicans in Michigan. Louisiana could potentially be Hillary friendly given that it voted for Bill twice. Colorado polls are indicating it is not going to be Democrat friendly in 2008 (at least not for president).

I've moved Virginia to a tossup due to Warner's decision to enter the Senate race. I know it's usually the presidential candidate who helps the down-ticket candidates but I think it could work in reverse this time around. I'm still calling for a Republican victory though unless there is a mass exodus of DC city dwellers into Virginia.

The recent Democratic infighting over Florida's primary caused me to change it from a tossup to leans Republican. No other changes at this time, and barring any race changing events there probably won't be until actual voting starts in January.

I'm rooting for a Richardson candidacy but my map is just a generic Dem v Rep at the moment. IMO the Republicans don't really have a chance in any 2004 Dem states except maybe Wisconsin. Democrats are still on the offensive and there are several 2004 GOP states where they could do well.

The recent Democratic infighting over Florida's primary caused me to change it from a tossup to leans Republican. No other changes at this time, and barring any race changing events there probably won't be until actual voting starts in January.

I'm rooting for a Richardson candidacy but my map is just a generic Dem v Rep at the moment. IMO the Republicans don't really have a chance in any 2004 Dem states except maybe Wisconsin. Democrats are still on the offensive and there are several 2004 GOP states where they could do well.

I went with a slightly less aggressive confidence map but truthfully all of the leans states could be tossups. Its just too early to tell for sure about anything. But, if the election were held today between generic D and R this is what I think it would look like.

I moved Penn. and New Hampshire to strong Democrat. The latest polls on Shaheen v. Sununu are very damning for the GOP and I just don't see them recovering.

I put Colorado back into the Democratic column. I also moved Pennsylvania and North Carolina from strong to leans. Wisconsin has been moved from leans to strong.

I aded Montana, New Jersey, and Arizona to the lean category because under the rightr circumstances I could see the other party winning these states. Also, we still have over a year to go before the general so very few things are set in concrete.

Still a generic map but I'm betting the lady with a snuke up her sniz is going to take the Democratic nomination so I moved Arkansas to a leaner for now. I also made a few other minor %age adjustments.

With Richardson's second poor performance I've decided to change my map to a generic match-up. This caused me to switch FL and CO to the GOP and I also changed MT, TX, and AZ to strong GOP states from leans GOP.

Changed Ohio and Iowa to lean from tossup.

Romney v Richardson
Changed my mind about FL again. I also did some percentage adjustments.

Still Romney v Richardson but I changed my mind about FL.

My map is based on a Richardson v Romney match-up. I picked these two because I think Romney will be the Republican nominee and I want Richardson to be the Democratic nominee. Also, recent polls (as of May 17th 2007) have Richardson showing a mini-surge in Iowa , New Hampshire, and Oklahoma for the Democratic Primary.

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