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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:11

Prediction Map
Gustaf Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Gustaf Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep227
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep160
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+60+59000202252+59
Rep000-60-59253227-59
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
97484243
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Now assuming Obama v McCain and making according changes. Looking a little more at the polls too.


Version: 3

Assuming McCain versus Clinton. Will need more polls to make definitive statements on a lot of states, hence a lot of tossups right now. McCain as the favourite, but we've a long way to go yet.


Version: 2

Switching around a little based on the polling we've seen so far. Still assuming Guliani versus Clinton but being conservative in switching over states. We could of course see many of those states flip over producing a very different map than 2004.


Version: 1

Obviusly very early, therefore many tossups. I'm assuming a clinton-guliani match-up. I will try to keep it to assuming that whoever is leading the primary will be the candidate, so as to not confuse primary predictions with general election ones.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 5 2 99T
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 1 15T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 1 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 11 3 47T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 15/33 45/66 68.2% pie 1 46 198T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 46 51T
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 27/52 74/104 71.2% pie 28 - 2
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 60 37T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 21/37 54/74 73.0% pie 3 72 151T
P 2010 Governor 32/37 20/37 52/74 70.3% pie 2 72 143T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 1 56T
P 2008 President 52/56 45/56 97/112 86.6% pie 11 0 55T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 0 152T
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 19/52 61/104 58.7% pie 16 - 38T
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 22/49 61/98 62.2% pie 20 - 9T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 172 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 13 0 65T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 26/36 61/72 84.7% pie 20 0 22T
P 2004 President 51/56 39/56 90/112 80.4% pie 6 14 219T
Aggregate Predictions 576/635 387/635 963/1270 75.8% pie


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