Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:11

Prediction Map
Gustaf Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Gustaf Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	227
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	160
Ind	0
Tos	87

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+59	0	0	0	20	2	252	+59
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-59	25	3	227	-59
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
97	48	42	4	3

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Now assuming Obama v McCain and making according changes. Looking a little more at the polls too.

Version: 3

Assuming McCain versus Clinton. Will need more polls to make definitive statements on a lot of states, hence a lot of tossups right now. McCain as the favourite, but we've a long way to go yet.

Version: 2

Switching around a little based on the polling we've seen so far. Still assuming Guliani versus Clinton but being conservative in switching over states. We could of course see many of those states flip over producing a very different map than 2004.

Version: 1

Obviusly very early, therefore many tossups. I'm assuming a clinton-guliani match-up. I will try to keep it to assuming that whoever is leading the primary will be the candidate, so as to not confuse primary predictions with general election ones.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	11	3	47	T
2012 Senate	30/33	15/33	45/66	68.2%	1	46	198	T
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	1	46	51	T
2012 Rep Primary	47/52	27/52	74/104	71.2%	28	-	2
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	60	37	T
2010 Senate	33/37	21/37	54/74	73.0%	3	72	151	T
2010 Governor	32/37	20/37	52/74	70.3%	2	72	143	T
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	2	1	56	T
2008 President	52/56	45/56	97/112	86.6%	11	0	55	T
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	4	0	28	T
2008 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	1	0	152	T
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	19/52	61/104	58.7%	16	-	38	T
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	22/49	61/98	62.2%	20	-	9	T
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	172	1	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	13	0	65	T
2006 Governor	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	20	0	22	T
2004 President	51/56	39/56	90/112	80.4%	6	14	219	T
Aggregate Predictions	509/561	343/561	852/1122	75.9%