PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - rightwingnut (I-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:33

Prediction Map
rightwingnut MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
rightwingnut MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep247
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
Tos142
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+50+39000202252+39
Rep000-50-39263247-39
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
93474042
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 31

NPV tie. Model generated using polls. Any resemblance to 2000 is purely coincidental.


Version: 30

Generated by a model based on poll data; any resemblance to 2000 is purely coincidental (and surprising to me).


Version: 29

NPV Tie.


Version: 28

NPV tie.


Version: 27

If election were held tomorrow:

Obama wins NPV by 4.03% on the back of a big anti-incumbent turnout coupled to a decreased Evangelical turnout.

Confidences relative to national margin.


Version: 26

If election were held tomorrow:

Obama wins NPV by 4.95% on the back of a big anti-incumbent turnout coupled to a decreased Evangelical turnout.

Confidences relative to national margin.


Version: 25

Obama wins NPV by 3% on the back of a big anti-incumbent turnout in relatively safe states compared to a decreased Evangelical turnout nationwide.

Confidences relative to national margin absent shift in turnout.


Version: 24

Obama wins PV by ~3%.


Version: 23

Obama wins PV by <2%.


Version: 22

Obama wins PV by <2%.


Version: 21

Obama vs. McCain. Obama wins PV, McCain wins election.


Version: 20

Obama vs. McCain


Version: 19

Obama vs. McCain


Version: 17

Obama vs. McCain. McCain picking up PA, NH, and MI more than cancels out Obama's gains in CO, NM, NV, and IA.


Version: 15

Obama-McCain

Based on polling. MI takes it down (polling indicates a dead heat).


Version: 14

Confidence is given assuming a national dead heat, prediction is given assuming that polling is accurate.


Version: 13

Undecideds Break 3-2 for McCain.


Version: 12

Rev. Wright kills Obama's candidacy, giving McCain a landslide victory.


Version: 11

Clinton vs. McCain. Current polling plus undecideds split 2-1 for McCain.


Version: 10

Obama vs. McCain. Current polling plus 55%-45% split of undecideds to Obama. McCain holds Obama to <10000 votes in MI and NJ, while taking PA by <10000 votes, prompting 3 automatic recounts.


Version: 9

McCain vs. Clinton:

Current polling plus undecideds split to McCain 60%-40%.


Version: 8

Obama vs. McCain. Current polling, plus undecideds split to Obama 55%-45%.


Version: 7

Based on current polls plus 55-45 undecided split in Obama's favor.


Version: 6

Obama vs. McCain - Current Polling + 55-45 split of current undecideds to Obama, i.e. most likely scenario.


Version: 5

Obama vs. McCain - Current Polling 55-45 split of current undecideds to Obama, i.e. most likely scenario.


Version: 4

McCain vs. Obama as of most recent polls.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 51/56 36/56 87/112 77.7% pie 5 7 561T760
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 33 0 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 28/33 13/33 41/66 62.1% pie 2 205 334T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 2 2 65T465
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 33 1 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 216/234 154/234 370/468 79.1% pie


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