Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:33
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Version: 31 NPV tie. Model generated using polls. Any resemblance to 2000 is purely coincidental. Version: 30 Generated by a model based on poll data; any resemblance to 2000 is purely coincidental (and surprising to me). Version: 29 NPV Tie. Version: 28 NPV tie. Version: 27 If election were held tomorrow: Version: 26 If election were held tomorrow: Version: 25 Obama wins NPV by 3% on the back of a big anti-incumbent turnout in relatively safe states compared to a decreased Evangelical turnout nationwide. Version: 24 Obama wins PV by ~3%. Version: 23 Obama wins PV by <2%. Version: 22 Obama wins PV by <2%. Version: 21 Obama vs. McCain. Obama wins PV, McCain wins election. Version: 20 Obama vs. McCain Version: 19 Obama vs. McCain Version: 17 Obama vs. McCain. McCain picking up PA, NH, and MI more than cancels out Obama's gains in CO, NM, NV, and IA. Version: 15 Obama-McCain Version: 14 Confidence is given assuming a national dead heat, prediction is given assuming that polling is accurate. Version: 13 Undecideds Break 3-2 for McCain. Version: 12 Rev. Wright kills Obama's candidacy, giving McCain a landslide victory. Version: 11 Clinton vs. McCain. Current polling plus undecideds split 2-1 for McCain. Version: 10 Obama vs. McCain. Current polling plus 55%-45% split of undecideds to Obama. McCain holds Obama to <10000 votes in MI and NJ, while taking PA by <10000 votes, prompting 3 automatic recounts. Version: 9 McCain vs. Clinton: Version: 8 Obama vs. McCain. Current polling, plus undecideds split to Obama 55%-45%. Version: 7 Based on current polls plus 55-45 undecided split in Obama's favor. Version: 6 Obama vs. McCain - Current Polling + 55-45 split of current undecideds to Obama, i.e. most likely scenario. Version: 5 Obama vs. McCain - Current Polling 55-45 split of current undecideds to Obama, i.e. most likely scenario. Version: 4 McCain vs. Obama as of most recent polls.
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