Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-05-17 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	300
Rep	238
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	252
Rep	229
Ind	0
Tos	57

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+5	0	+48	0	0	0	20	2	252	+48
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-48	26	3	238	-48
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
77	45	27	4	1

Analysis

I expect the Democrats to only get stronger in Ohio, especially after the 2006 results. So, that's why I have it in the lean column rather than in the toss-up column.

I think a less-than conservative will get the GOP nod, and depending on who the Democrats nominate, I think this could push Missouri over the line.

I think a majority of the southwest is up for grabs, barring a McCain nomination (which is growing increasingly unlikely), I expect the Democrats to make big gains in the region.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	49/56	28/56	77/112	68.8%	1	537	625	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	49/56	28/56	77/112	68.8%

Links

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