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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:12
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Time to get serious here, in the interest of trying to maximize my performance...
No state is going only 30% for either candidate...so I moved any state which was previously at 30% to 40 or 50% because at this point what is the difference between trying to indicate that a state is LEANING to one candidate of being STRONG for that candidate. There is no viable 3rd party candidate that will get an appreciable amount of votes to cause <30%...but <40% is a possibility in a couple states like Missouri (the candidate who wins MO either wins barely over 50% or just under 50%) or Montana (where Ron Paul should get a good share of the vote).
North Carolina isn't going +40%, so I moved that to 50% for the respective party choice in those states.
Ditto for Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, South Dakota, and Florida.
Indiana I switched over the GOP because I really haven't seen the polling to indicate that Obama has a legitimate shot of victory here. Same for North Dakota.
Montana I kept in the red (for the DEMs) because of the realistic shot that Ron Paul has in pulling votes away from McCain.
Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are in the democratic bag because of the Latino vote.
Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire were all capitulated by McCain...no brainer to have them in the DEM column.
Virginia has not polled positively for McCain since the beginning of October. Its not going to the GOP.
Georgia polls are too close to ignore the early voting totals. Polls don't account for young voters very well, so they may have a huge impact here. Thus I left it in the DEM column.
Missouri routinely goes the way of the election...and considering I have Obama winning it was a no-brainer to leave it in the DEM column.
Arizona is not going to Obama so I pushed that back up to <50% GOP.
Not a single positive poll for McCain in Pennsylvania since April...no chance it goes to McCain, sorry republicans.
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