PredictionsNewsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Tokar (D-VA) ResultsForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Advertisements

Political Posters!
History of the Parties


Election and History Posters from History Shots!

Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed


Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:12

Prediction Map
Tokar Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Tokar Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem382
 
Rep156
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem333
 
Rep132
 
Ind0
 
Tos73
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+110+130000202252+130
Rep000-110-130203156-130
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
92474041
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Time to get serious here, in the interest of trying to maximize my performance...

No state is going only 30% for either candidate...so I moved any state which was previously at 30% to 40 or 50% because at this point what is the difference between trying to indicate that a state is LEANING to one candidate of being STRONG for that candidate. There is no viable 3rd party candidate that will get an appreciable amount of votes to cause <30%...but <40% is a possibility in a couple states like Missouri (the candidate who wins MO either wins barely over 50% or just under 50%) or Montana (where Ron Paul should get a good share of the vote).

North Carolina isn't going +40%, so I moved that to 50% for the respective party choice in those states.
Ditto for Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, South Dakota, and Florida.



Indiana I switched over the GOP because I really haven't seen the polling to indicate that Obama has a legitimate shot of victory here. Same for North Dakota.

Montana I kept in the red (for the DEMs) because of the realistic shot that Ron Paul has in pulling votes away from McCain.

Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are in the democratic bag because of the Latino vote.

Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire were all capitulated by McCain...no brainer to have them in the DEM column.

Virginia has not polled positively for McCain since the beginning of October. Its not going to the GOP.

Georgia polls are too close to ignore the early voting totals. Polls don't account for young voters very well, so they may have a huge impact here. Thus I left it in the DEM column.

Missouri routinely goes the way of the election...and considering I have Obama winning it was a no-brainer to leave it in the DEM column.

Arizona is not going to Obama so I pushed that back up to <50% GOP.

Not a single positive poll for McCain in Pennsylvania since April...no chance it goes to McCain, sorry republicans.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 6 4 77T
P 2012 Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 1 56T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 22/37 56/74 75.7% pie 10 2 116T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 21/37 54/74 73.0% pie 1 12 130T
P 2008 President 51/56 41/56 92/112 82.1% pie 12 0 178T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 6 1 117T
Aggregate Predictions 238/252 168/252 406/504 80.6% pie


Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home

Ad: History Posters! - History of the Panama Canal


Election and History Posters from History Shots!

Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed

© David Leip 2003 All Rights Reserved