Changes:

Arizona from Strong to Lean M
California from O > 50 to O > 60
Delaware from O > 50 to O > 60
Florida from M to O
Georgia from Strong to Lean M
Illinois from O > 50 to O > 60
Missouri from O to M
NE- 1 from Lean M to Strong
Nevada from Tossup O > 40 to Lean O > 50
New Hampshire from Lean O to Strong
North Carolina from M > 40 to M > 50
Pennsylvania from Lean O to Strong


My final prediction. This map assumes a roughly 5% victory in the national popular vote for Obama. Although clearly a comfortable win, I don't have it as the landslide for him that it could be. McCain still manages a respectable 220 EVs and keeps it from becoming anywhere near the one-sided affairs of the 1980s, though still a far cry from the nail-biting Bush elections.

The states that I have going for McCain that I had a great difficulty deciding about and wouldn't be all that surprised if Obama took were OH, MO, and to a lesser extent NC. In all 3 states, I think covert racism and a generally conservative cultural bias will cause McCain to overperform most polls by a few percentage points. Ohio is the one I most go against the 538 Regression Model, as the vast majority of recent polls give Obama a 2-6% advantage, although a Rasmussen poll from the 2nd has it tied and a Mason-Dixon one from the 30th has McCain up. I'm assuming that these polls are more reliable than the mostly Uni ones and Zogby and am also counting on the aforementioned factors to slant the results slightly to give McCain a squeaker victory. Interestingly, OH has moved much slower than other states to Obama's corner relative to his massive gains in the past 4-6 weeks for the national polls. Judging exclusively by the most recent polls, MO is a pure 50/50 tossup, but with a possible Bradley Effect of 1-2% I give McCain the very slight edge. In NC, McCain appears to have gained a small advantage and should exceed polls slightly as in OH and MO, allowing him to finish with somewhere between 50-52% of the vote. I also wouldn't be surprised if there was at least some Bradley Effect in PA, but given Obama's sizable margins in basically every poll it won't be decisive.

Other than that, I see most of the swing states going decisively to Obama. PA, CO, and NV will be surprisingly easy Obama wins. I anticipate VA and FL to be somewhat closer, but Obama should also end up taking those by at least 2-3%. Some states that were once considered potential battlegrounds, such as IA, NM, NH, and WI, should be called for Obama immediately at closing time based on exit polls and will ultimately end up with margins of about 8-12%.

Bottom Line: Say hello to President Obama, a Democrat-controlled government, and the probable turning point of a major realignment in the American political landscape.

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