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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-19 Version:6

Prediction Map
sbane Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
sbane Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem318
 
Rep220
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem273
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
Tos91
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+60+66000202252+66
Rep000-60-66253220-66
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
89483641
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is based of about a 3 point Obama win. Florida and Ohio are the two closest states in this scenario and I think Florida leans slightly more democratic this time. Both are pure tossups though. Then we have Mo and Nc. I think they come home to Mccain in the end and he wins by at least a couple points in each state. I expect about the same kind of margin for Virginia and Nevada but in the opposite direction. I think Obama would win Colorado and NH by at least 4-5 points in this scenario, thus we can see he has a structural advantage in this election. Mccain might win the PV by about a point but could still lose the election.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 2 17 182T
P 2008 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 6 16 247T
Aggregate Predictions 107/112 80/112 187/224 83.5% pie


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