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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-19 Version:6
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
This is based of about a 3 point Obama win. Florida and Ohio are the two closest states in this scenario and I think Florida leans slightly more democratic this time. Both are pure tossups though. Then we have Mo and Nc. I think they come home to Mccain in the end and he wins by at least a couple points in each state. I expect about the same kind of margin for Virginia and Nevada but in the opposite direction. I think Obama would win Colorado and NH by at least 4-5 points in this scenario, thus we can see he has a structural advantage in this election. Mccain might win the PV by about a point but could still lose the election.
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