Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-19 Version:6

Prediction Map
sbane Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
sbane Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	318
Rep	220
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	273
Rep	174
Ind	0
Tos	91

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+66	0	0	0	20	2	252	+66
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-66	25	3	220	-66
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
89	48	36	4	1

Analysis

This is based of about a 3 point Obama win. Florida and Ohio are the two closest states in this scenario and I think Florida leans slightly more democratic this time. Both are pure tossups though. Then we have Mo and Nc. I think they come home to Mccain in the end and he wins by at least a couple points in each state. I expect about the same kind of margin for Virginia and Nevada but in the opposite direction. I think Obama would win Colorado and NH by at least 4-5 points in this scenario, thus we can see he has a structural advantage in this election. Mccain might win the PV by about a point but could still lose the election.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	2	17	182	T
2008 President	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%	6	16	247	T
Aggregate Predictions	107/112	80/112	187/224	83.5%

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