Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Election Data

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
palinode Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
palinode Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0
Tos	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
99	49	44	4	2

Analysis

Final Entry: I've pretty much decided on this outcome. I may tweak it throughout the day until the polls close in the first states. I eliminated all the toss-ups and switched them to Lean for their respective predicted winners. I tweaked the last of the former toss-ups to >40% for their final predictions. I changed Maryland's prediction to >50%, I changed Arizona's prediction to >40%, I also changed Pennsylvania's confidence to Lean Obama.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 03:35:54
This is it. For the most part.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:34:20
Arizona will definitely be over 50% McCain. Despite the polls, this is his home state -he won there by 70% + in 2002. It will be close, but a clear win for McCain. Missouri, Florida, North Carolina and Indiana are all nail-biters -but you seem very confident about them.

By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-06 @ 11:23:45
They haven't graded it yet. But, when they do... I probably have an A. I NAILED THAT SH*T pretty much. If I had switched out Indiana and Missouri, I could have gotten EVERY state right on the winning candidate. BUT, those 2 states have the SAME electoral value. :)

By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 04:01:08
So, wow, I just found out that Nebraska's 2nd District may ACTUALLY split its electoral votes, for the first time, giving President-Elect Obama its 1 electoral vote due to the overwhelming turnout for Obama in Omaha. And assuming Missouri is given to Senator McCain, the final total will be 365-173. My final prediction wasn't too off from that.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 20:45:53
Nebraska EV going to Obama really is something. I had a feeling he might eek it out here due to the ground game. The lines on election morning here were stunning.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	7	0	182	T
2012 Senate	30/33	10/33	40/66	60.6%	1	21	252	T
2012 Governor	9/11	3/11	12/22	54.5%	1	21	196	T
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	25	0	26	T
2008 Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	3	9	28	T
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	1	13	152	T
Aggregate Predictions	192/200	128/200	320/400	80.0%

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