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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
palinode Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
palinode Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
99494442
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Final Entry: I've pretty much decided on this outcome. I may tweak it throughout the day until the polls close in the first states. I eliminated all the toss-ups and switched them to Lean for their respective predicted winners. I tweaked the last of the former toss-ups to >40% for their final predictions. I changed Maryland's prediction to >50%, I changed Arizona's prediction to >40%, I also changed Pennsylvania's confidence to Lean Obama.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 03:35:54
This is it. For the most part.prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:34:20
Arizona will definitely be over 50% McCain. Despite the polls, this is his home state -he won there by 70% + in 2002. It will be close, but a clear win for McCain.

Missouri, Florida, North Carolina and Indiana are all nail-biters -but you seem very confident about them.
prediction Map

 By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-06 @ 11:23:45
They haven't graded it yet. But, when they do... I probably have an A. I NAILED THAT SH*T pretty much. If I had switched out Indiana and Missouri, I could have gotten EVERY state right on the winning candidate. BUT, those 2 states have the SAME electoral value. :)prediction Map

 By: palinode (G-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 04:01:08
So, wow, I just found out that Nebraska's 2nd District may ACTUALLY split its electoral votes, for the first time, giving President-Elect Obama its 1 electoral vote due to the overwhelming turnout for Obama in Omaha. And assuming Missouri is given to Senator McCain, the final total will be 365-173. My final prediction wasn't too off from that.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 20:45:53
Nebraska EV going to Obama really is something. I had a feeling he might eek it out here due to the ground game. The lines on election morning here were stunning.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 7 0 182T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 10/33 40/66 60.6% pie 1 21 252T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 3/11 12/22 54.5% pie 1 21 196T
P 2008 President 53/56 46/56 99/112 88.4% pie 25 0 26T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 3 9 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 5/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 13 152T
Aggregate Predictions 192/200 128/200 320/400 80.0% pie


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