Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-08-31 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	222
Rep	316
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	217
Rep	269
Ind	0
Tos	52

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+2	0	+12	-3	0	-42	17	2	210	-30
Rep	+3	0	+42	-2	0	-12	29	3	274	+30
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
75	41	29	4	1

Analysis

This whole election, not just the White House. I think the way things are falling out here, I think we're going to get a huge surprise. The Democrats are just going to be stunned again. I think it's going to be a bad election season for them.

If Obama dosen't have a least a 7 point lead going into the last week of October hes TOAST.. trust me on this one

And Mrs " For the first time in my adult lifetime im proud of my country" Michelle Obama will not be our next first lady.....Thank god for that

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: GoldenBoy (I-OH) 2008-08-31 @ 09:19:59
I see little reason to believe that the Latino or Asian votes will change substantially in 2008. Clearly, the black vote will shift even more strongly in favor of the Democratic candidate. However, the white voting population is seven times larger than the black voting population. Consequently, a shift in the black vote of seven percentage points is roughly equivalent to a shift in the white vote of one point. Even if Obama were to receive essentially all black votes, which is unlikely, a loss of less than two percentage points of the white vote would be enough to offset these gains. So the key to the upcoming election is whether white voters will be more, less, or equally likely to vote for Obama as for Kerry. I believe the answer is less likely. Doubt me??? Look at the results of the white vote for Obama in the Dem Primaries Pennsylvania 38% Ohio 38% North Carolina 36% Florida 23% New Hampshire 36% Averages of all States 39%

By: ejinsc (D-TX) 2008-08-31 @ 10:30:53
I think PA will be close (as it always is) but will ultimately land in the Obama camp - unless McCain makes significant inroads into the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs. I have a lot of family in Philly that can't stand Obama but will vote for him because they are either loyal Democrats or have pet issues that they don't agree with McCain on. What can McCain do to fix that?

By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-08-31 @ 11:51:54
Your absolultly correct, Obama cant mend the support of all democrats and those votes swing republican this year, the problem is conservative democrats and clinton supporters esp will be the key points for Obama to win or lose important grounds in the swing states

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-08-31 @ 12:27:13
Ejinsc - great to see you back. The view in the UK seems to be: Palin is a joke Biden is better equipped. Most people like Obama - although they are aware of his relative innexperience. The Mc was popular 8 years ago. But now he's seen as a shadow of his former self.

By: ejinsc (D-TX) 2008-08-31 @ 12:28:52
Good to see you to, Hillbilly!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-08-31 @ 13:11:43
Goldenboy those numbers on the white vote was in the democratic primary I think once you add republicans and independents to the voting mix it will grow in many of these states. The southern states in particuliar will be very racially polarized and although they have signifigant black populations whites still out number them 2-3-4 to one depending on the state. Its clear that Mrs Clinton was the stronger nominee and I hope that I will have another opportunity to cast my ballot for her. Its Mc Cain/Palin for me now.

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-09-01 @ 05:20:49
YAWN. More PUMA kool-aid.

By: Joan4Hillary (I-CO) 2008-09-01 @ 07:57:34
bonncaruso no one cares what you say cause your always wrong and you wont admit it Bonncaruso ego = Obama ego

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	45/56	30/56	75/112	67.0%	3	65	702	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	45/56	30/56	75/112	67.0%

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