PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - cmbeattie (R-OK) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-27 Version:7

Prediction Map
cmbeattie MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
cmbeattie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep247
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem181
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos194
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+50+39000202252+39
Rep000-50-39263247-39
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
77472442
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is not a Republican year. McCain made many mistakes in the campaign. He supported a bailout that only 24% of the American People agree with. His choice of Sarah Palin, although she is a great smart woman. She was not a good choice. McCain considered Indiana and Virginia as Safe states and Obama used a lot of grassroots and money to gain leverage there. I Bush was not a factor or at least if the economy was doing better. Which is not the fault of the president nor Republicans. McCain would have been ahead and would have been able to take both Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania. McCain is not a good campaigner, although he is a proven great leader. This year is targeted against Bush. Many falsehoods. McCain would not be like Bush in the fact that he is more willing to have nay-Sayers in his administration. McCain should also state that it is not the policies of Bush that failed it was a lot of outside factors. We will not know the outcome of his policies until way later. Spending is something McCain could win if he was opposed to the Iraq War or f he said that his and Colin Powell's plan in 2003 would have helped better manage the war.

McCain still has a benefit in Ohio and that is that few Democrats win above 50% here Johnson was the last to win a Majority here. Carter and Clinton had won with pluralities. This state is heavily fiscal and culturally Conservative. I believe 2010 will be another Republican year considering the dynamics that we are facing a 60% majority which will silence the GOP minority. People in America according to surveys consider themselves more conservative than liberal. Many of them are moderate and lean right. So, with great work and a candidate that knows how to run a campaign we can take 2012. It is over for 2008.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 34/35 23/35 57/70 81.4% pie 1 42 124T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 1 42 104T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 16 28T118
P 2020 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 4 7 260T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 2 71 274T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 340 147T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 1 6 104T192
P 2018 Senate 35/35 21/35 56/70 80.0% pie 4 4 42T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 4 6 226T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 2 40T149
P 2016 President 51/56 26/56 77/112 68.8% pie 4 0 369T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 3 164T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 2 0 25T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 24/36 59/72 81.9% pie 6 3 42T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 4 3 56T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 57 17T153
P 2012 President 51/56 35/56 86/112 76.8% pie 11 0 591T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 8 0 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 0 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 22/52 67/104 64.4% pie 14 - 16T231
P 2011 Governor 3/4 1/4 4/8 50.0% pie 3 40 79T106
P 2010 Senate 32/37 23/37 55/74 74.3% pie 13 0 133T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 24/37 58/74 78.4% pie 12 0 74T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 8 1T103
P 2008 President 51/56 26/56 77/112 68.8% pie 7 8 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 13/33 45/66 68.2% pie 4 8 257T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 1 193 183T264
Aggregate Predictions 693/759 425/759 1118/1518 73.6% pie


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