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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-27 Version:15

Prediction Map
timroman Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
timroman Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem383
 
Rep155
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem286
 
Rep121
 
Ind0
 
Tos131
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+120+131000202252+131
Rep000-120-131193155-131
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
91483742
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

In Montana: Ron Paul gets 11% and wins it for Obama

McCain's derailed campaign and Obama's massive turnout redefines "the map" specifically to turn these states into "swing states": NC, VA, WV, NV, IN

Traditional swing states like CO, OH, FL, MO won't be all that shocking when they go for Obama.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: cjrenwa (D-WA) 2008-11-02 @ 17:21:46
Your map is very close to mine & your analysis seems sound. Paul in MT could be the deal maker.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2012 President 55/56 40/56 95/112 84.8% pie 17 81 314T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 2 40 94T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 8/52 43/104 41.3% pie 7 - 102T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 18/37 50/74 67.6% pie 8 5 221T
P 2008 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 15 8 200T
P 2008 Senate 31/33 15/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 26 227T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 1 26 183T
P 2008 Dem Primary 30/52 13/52 43/104 41.3% pie 2 - 90T
P 2008 Rep Primary 28/49 6/49 34/98 34.7% pie 2 - 111T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 15/33 47/66 71.2% pie 1 44 232T
P 2004 President 51/56 31/56 82/112 73.2% pie 32 1 1036T
Aggregate Predictions 386/468 211/468 597/936 63.8% pie


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