Therein, you can easily compare county results from 2000 - 2008. Bush won Grant Co. (Marion) 68/31 in 2004. McCain won 56/43, a 24 point swing. Tmuth's Clay County had a 27 point swing, my birthplace Allen County 23 points, and the County I was stationed in on election day, Deleware, went from supporting Bush by 13 in '04 to supporting Obama by 15 this year, for a 28 point swing. Marion County (Indianapolis), supported Obama 64/35!! It had supported Kerry in '04, that the first year since '64 that Marion County had been Blue, 51/49, for a 27 point swing. Nearly the enire state, aside from a handful of counties in suburban Louisville & Cinncinati, and 2 each in exurban counties of Evanville & Chicago, experience shifts of 20+ points. The NYT voting shift map shows Indiana as the most solid and darkest swath of Blue on the map.
From the maps on this site you can see that Indiana experienced the largest voting shift in the country, AND the largest margin change from '04 reletive to national change.
By:FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-09 @ 17:40:44
Wow... Congratulations. Only one CD and three percentages wrong. You're definitely our big winner.
By:Aguagon (D-AZ) 2008-11-09 @ 19:22:18
Wow. If this doesn't end up the #1 prediction, I'll be shocked. Great job!
By:wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-09 @ 23:14:08
I see only two percentages wrong - NC by 0.3% and MO by 0.56%. Is there a third?
By:whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-10 @ 04:04:27
Well, since Obama carried part of NE technically there are 3 wrong. I think I just got very lucky and apparently used an accurate model for allocating undecided voters.
By:FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-10 @ 04:30:39
Wing -MT by 0.3%.
That makes 4 percentages with CD2, but I since a wrong call is per se a wrong percentage I didn't point that out. Depending on the other districts I'd say you're in for a 95 to 97 out of 102. 93.7 to 95.5 in.
Nice instincts, anyway. Getting the big three right (NC, IN, MO) was already tough.
By:rosin (I-DNK) 2008-11-10 @ 20:12:36
Wasn't ME-1 O+60%? (I'm not quite sure)
By:wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-10 @ 22:50:50
I haven't seen any figures for ME-01, but Cumberland County (Portland) went Obama with 64%, so its probably pretty close to 60% district-wide.
By:K.Dobrev (O-BGR) 2008-12-19 @ 08:22:45
Congratulations on making the best prediction!
By:FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-22 @ 16:48:57
But it would be nice if they got the percentage of successful predictions fixed. It should be divided by 112, not 122. There are only 51 states and 5 CDs > 56 predictions and 56 percentages for a grand total of 112.
Btw, ME-01 IS >60%, but I guess everyone knows that by now.