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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:87

Prediction Map
whoblitzell Map

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
whoblitzell Map

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages

No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 21:25:52
Wait - where have you been?? These percentages are amazing! You win. My apologies. I see only NC off, and close to 50% at that. You are the man...uh woman?prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 21:29:46
Definitely not a woman :O

I went by the averages of polls here and allocated undecideds assuming a 50/50 split favoring the extra point to down-ballot races and/or 2004 results.

prediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-07 @ 22:43:59
Yea, nice job on your prediction here! you got it dead on! Maybe the only exception is your call that North Dakota would be close, but hey, no one can be perfect, can they?prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 00:05:08
I was surprised by Alaska's senate race and the fact that ND and MT weren't a bit closer.

The Nebraska electoral vote really threw me for a loop too.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 00:38:09
I don't think ANYONE got all the states + NE-02 correct. I suspect you'll be tied with liber, rock & dem on states, but in a class by yourself on points.

Did you ever do any canvassing or other volunteering, who??
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 03:20:27
My brother volunteered for Obama, I wanted to but I was busy with classes. From everything I saw just in Marion the Obama people had a superior ground game. prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 13:35:21
My favorite post-election analysis on Indiana: "Hoosier daddy: Obama!";jsessionid=C00B4DD6137FF40296E6DC08D0DFEB85?diaryId=3433

Therein, you can easily compare county results from 2000 - 2008. Bush won Grant Co. (Marion) 68/31 in 2004. McCain won 56/43, a 24 point swing. Tmuth's Clay County had a 27 point swing, my birthplace Allen County 23 points, and the County I was stationed in on election day, Deleware, went from supporting Bush by 13 in '04 to supporting Obama by 15 this year, for a 28 point swing. Marion County (Indianapolis), supported Obama 64/35!! It had supported Kerry in '04, that the first year since '64 that Marion County had been Blue, 51/49, for a 27 point swing. Nearly the enire state, aside from a handful of counties in suburban Louisville & Cinncinati, and 2 each in exurban counties of Evanville & Chicago, experience shifts of 20+ points. The NYT voting shift map shows Indiana as the most solid and darkest swath of Blue on the map.

From the maps on this site you can see that Indiana experienced the largest voting shift in the country, AND the largest margin change from '04 reletive to national change.

Hurray Hoosiers!!!
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-09 @ 17:40:44
Wow... Congratulations. Only one CD and three percentages wrong. You're definitely our big winner.prediction Map

 By: Aguagon (D-AZ) 2008-11-09 @ 19:22:18
Wow. If this doesn't end up the #1 prediction, I'll be shocked. Great job!prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-09 @ 23:14:08
I see only two percentages wrong - NC by 0.3% and MO by 0.56%. Is there a third?prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-10 @ 04:04:27
Well, since Obama carried part of NE technically there are 3 wrong. I think I just got very lucky and apparently used an accurate model for allocating undecided voters.

prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-10 @ 04:30:39
Wing -MT by 0.3%.
That makes 4 percentages with CD2, but I since a wrong call is per se a wrong percentage I didn't point that out. Depending on the other districts I'd say you're in for a 95 to 97 out of 102. 93.7 to 95.5 in.

Nice instincts, anyway. Getting the big three right (NC, IN, MO) was already tough.
prediction Map

 By: rosin (I-DNK) 2008-11-10 @ 20:12:36
Wasn't ME-1 O+60%? (I'm not quite sure)prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-10 @ 22:50:50
I haven't seen any figures for ME-01, but Cumberland County (Portland) went Obama with 64%, so its probably pretty close to 60% district-wide.prediction Map

 By: K.Dobrev (O-BGR) 2008-12-19 @ 08:22:45
Congratulations on making the best prediction!prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-22 @ 16:48:57
But it would be nice if they got the percentage of successful predictions fixed. It should be divided by 112, not 122. There are only 51 states and 5 CDs > 56 predictions and 56 percentages for a grand total of 112.

Btw, ME-01 IS >60%, but I guess everyone knows that by now.
prediction Map

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 6 1 146T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 1 1 74T
P 2012 Rep Primary 8/52 2/52 10/104 9.6% pie 4 - 211T
P 2010 Senate 0/37 0/37 0/74 0.0% pie 9 -1 200
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 3 1 59T
P 2008 President 55/56 49/56 104/112 92.9% pie 87 0 1
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 11 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 5 1 27T
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 41/52 88/104 84.6% pie 77 - 1
P 2008 Rep Primary 42/49 31/49 73/98 74.5% pie 27 - 1
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 9 1 65T
P 2004 President 50/56 29/56 79/112 70.5% pie 33 1 1285T
Aggregate Predictions 401/505 292/505 693/1010 68.6% pie

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