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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-25 Version:15

Prediction Map
Rock_nj Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Rock_nj Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem313
 
Rep148
 
Ind0
 
Tos77
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
89513341
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Polls show Obama taking the lead in Indiana. Also, one poll had Georgia with Obama ahead by 1 point, which given the momentum is enough for me to make Georgia lean Republican but a tossup.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-01 @ 19:05:10
this map is kinda cute too ;) seems we have more wishful thinkers here...

by the way...if you look at numerous polling firms (not that I believe them, but anyway)...Obama's lead in Pennsylvania has been cut in HALF in the last week...not so far-fetched after all...will be interesting
prediction Map

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-11-01 @ 21:11:36
Is it really hard to believe Obama can win Indiana when the state is essentially tied and next to Illinois? Perhaps the historical voting trend will keep Indiana in the R column this year, but Obama has a realistic shot. He campaigned in Indiana last night. I think the momo might be enough for him to take IN. Even Georgia and Arizona are not out of reach for Obama. Early voting in those states seem to be favoring him.

Pennsylvania will stay Democratic. McCain's efforts will fall short. Cutting a lead in half is not winning.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-01 @ 22:45:34
And has he really cut the lead in half?? Each of theses pollsters with margins in the mid-sigle digits has a GOP lean. So some tightening, perhaps, but PA is still strong Obama, as opposed to, as Rock points out, GA & AZ being lean McCain to tossup. This is the same as my map, but I'd give Obama the lean in NV and SD + MT are lean GOP if not toss-up.

Indiana is indeed a toss-up - about as tied as you can get. Obama has 42 offices here, McCain none. Obama has visited 40 some times - 3 times in the past two weeks, including 35,000 here in Indy last week. McCain has been here I think 6 times, mostly small fundraising visits. Obama has been advertising here for several months. I have yet to see a McCain ad, though I understand that the GOP bought some time a week or two ago. These efforts by Obama will pay off. Obama has a great ground game & GOTV effort. McCain's is non-existent. These efforts by Obama will pay off, IMHO, and Indiana will vote Democratic in a presidential election dfor the first time since 1964.

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 18:27:26
prediction Map

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-11-06 @ 10:43:20
It looks like I was right on with my Presidential Prediction for 2008! Happy about that and happy about the outcome!prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 19:23:15
Congradulation Rock. Good prediction, you where right on.

Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 19:23:33
prediction Map

 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-07 @ 00:11:39
You rock! Congratulations. The only one you may have missed is Omaha :)

How on earth did you know NC and VA and IN would go for Obama but not MO, the supposed bellwether of all bellwethers? WTF?
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 00:26:59
Good job on the prediction. You are also spot on with percentages in New England and CA. GOP states are too high, though, and I WISH Obama could have bumped over 50% here in IN. I'm still looking for someone with these states + NE2, which I believe will be the end result. prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 18:29:12
Indeed NE-02 is called for Obama. You, Liberalover & Demboy win the prize.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 20:46:21
In the immortal words of the man himself...

My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 55/56 34/56 89/112 79.5% pie 15 10 247T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 11/33 44/66 66.7% pie 5 5 299T
P 2004 President 52/56 5/56 57/112 50.9% pie 63 3 1820T
Aggregate Predictions 140/145 50/145 190/290 65.5% pie


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