Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	286
Rep	152
Ind	0
Tos	100

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
88	49	33	4	2

Analysis

Ok. It is time for the fifty state prediction.

Alabama - McCain - Obama is going to have a hard time getting this state.

Alaska - McCain - Palin's home state. Pretty conservative state unless you are corrupt like Stevens. Stevens is probably going to be replaced

Arizona - McCain - McCains home state. Expect a landslide if Obama wins this state.

Arkansas - McCain - Another state that Obama hopes to get.

California - Obama - San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties will not match the >55% vote Obama is going to get in Los Angeles county. The golden state is going to go for Obama. Prop. 1A will get 57-62% of the vote meaning that it will bearly pass or fail. McClintock (who opposes Prop. 1A) will narrowly lose his run somewhat based on his stance Prop. 1A.

Colorado - Obama - Denver and Colorado Springs will help Obama.

Connecticut - Obama - Even Lieberman cannot deliver this state to McCain.

DC - Let's see how much Obama will win by in the good District of Columbia.

Delaware - Obama - Biden's home state. An easy pick-up.

Florida - Obama - This is a toss-up. It depends on who shows up. West Palm Beach county, Miami, Jacksonville, the area on the I-4. This makes the area interesting.

Georgia - McCain - Obama could take this state. It comes to turn-out in this state also.

Hawaii - Obama - Pineapples to Obama.

Idaho - McCain - Obama could talk potato farmers with no avail. There are better states to go to.

Illinois - Obama - Obama home state. Unlikely to lose this state.

Indiana - McCain - Another toss-up. Indianapolis and Fort Wayne will be key.

Iowa - Obama - This state that gave Obama his first primary win will go to him.

Kansas - McCain - Kansas is not very competitive.

Kentucky - McCain - Its poor and its mostly rural. Not a great state for Obama.

Louisiana - McCain - Hurricane Katrina is still wrecking havoc for the democrats. It probably will be closer then last election.

Maine - Obama - A nice cold state for Obama.

Maryland - Obama - Baltimore and the DC suburbs will go for Obama.

Massachusetts - Obama - Liberal state that last went republican in the Reagan landslide.

Michigan - Obama - Auto industry woes make the unions more supported of Obama. Detroit and the Ann Arbor are more liberal while Oakland county is more conservative.

Minnesota - Obama - Minnesota has an independent streak but this should have no bearing on who will be the victor. The senate race looks intriguing.

Mississippi - McCain - This state is still safely republican.

Missouri - Obama - St. Louis and Kansas City will be key in this state.

Montana - McCain - The question is how much will Barr take away from McCain.

Nebraska - McCain - Obama might be able to pull off taking one of the electoral votes.

Nevada - Obama - Its Clark County vs. Reno. Clark county will be victorous and give the state to Obama.

New Hampshire - Obama - No comeback for McCain here. Bordering liberal Vermont and Mass. does not help McCain.

New Jersey - Obama - Another state that is strong Obama

New Mexico - Obama - Strange state. Albequerque, Santa Fe, and Taos will go to Obama while the rest of the state goes to McCain.

New York - Obama - New York City, do I need to say more.

North Carolina - Obama - This depends on Raliegh and Charlotte.

North Dakota - McCain - Even though polls show the race tight McCain should eke out a win. Barr might play spoiler.

Ohio - Obama - The three C's will determine the winner. On the issues, issues 5 and 6 will fail.

Oklahoma - McCain - Oilfields and conservatives, what fun.

Oregon - Obama - This is the state that has mail in ballots. So this state might not be called until weeks after the election.

Pennslyvaina - Obama - Pittsburgh and Philadephia are key. Which will come first in Philadephia, a playable World Series game or the election?

Rhode Island - Obama - The littlest state is Obama country.

South Carolina - McCain - Little chance of Obama winning in this state.

South Dakota - McCain - Another conservative state.

Tennessee - McCain - Nashville and Memphis will probably make this race tight.

Texas - McCain - Oilfields and a conservative attitude. Obama will get help in Houston, Dallas-Forth Worth, and San Antonio but not enough to add this state to his column.

Utah - McCain - Ah, nature at its finest. The state that hosts many national parks will again go to McCain.

Vermont - Obama - A very liberal and independent minded state.

Virgina - Obama - The growing Washington DC suburbs have made this state a battleground.

Washington - Obama - The seattle area will be key.

West Virgina - McCain - This coal state is going for McCain.

Wisconsin - Obama - Milwaukee is part of the Chicago metropolitan area.

Wyoming - McCain - Another conservative state.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Du_Chateau (I-OH) 2008-10-29 @ 19:28:59
Any comments would be welcomed.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-10-29 @ 19:49:55
"Montana - McCain - The question is how much will Barr take away from McCain." And Paul... Very good map IMO. You seem to insist a lot on big cities in each state, which is particularly telling. In the close states it'll be all about turnout in cities versus turnout in the country/the suburbs. I like your nickname, btw. :-)

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-29 @ 20:03:45
I like your map, good work. I think the close states like Missouri and North Carolina are goin to be what will make or break a lot of our predictions. Now that I think about it, any takers on what will be the closest state. I actually think it will be either North Carolina or Missouri...I might be wrong though.

By: Du_Chateau (I-OH) 2008-11-03 @ 18:19:40
Some closing comments: This is my final map. I think Missouri is going to be the closest state. It usually goes to the winner though. It would be interesting if Missouri did not go with the winner. Thoughts on California Propostions and Ohio Issues. I hope that Proposition 1A passes. I am not ready to predict that it does though. It is up in the air. Props. 4 and 8 will be defeaten. Props. 3 and 11 are bond issues like prop. 1A. So it is hard to say if they will pass. Prop. 12 will probably fail. Prop. 2 is weird to say the least. I have no idea why anyone would vote for or against it. Ohio issues. Issues 5 & 6 will be defeaten.

By: Du_Chateau (I-OH) 2008-11-07 @ 20:19:40
Analysis of election: Got two states and a CD wrong. Not bad. Missouri was closer than North Carolina. I am glad that Prop. 1A passed. Surprises: Pennslyvaina, New Hampshire, and Minnesota being call immediately. Indiana going to Obama. Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, and San Diego counties going to Obama. Frenso County being very close and McCain gettin less than 55% in Orange County. What went on here. Proposition 8 passing.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 20:47:43
A people's revolution.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	51/56	28/56	79/112	70.5%	2	6	637	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	1	4	337	T	423
2018 Senate	30/35	15/35	45/70	64.3%	3	3	392	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	15/36	46/72	63.9%	2	11	285	T	372
2016 President	44/56	22/56	66/112	58.9%	7	0	614	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	16/34	44/68	64.7%	3	5	302	T	362
2014 Senate	28/36	17/36	45/72	62.5%	1	42	282	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	13/36	39/72	54.2%	1	42	253	T	300
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	12/33	44/66	66.7%	2	1	211	T	343
2010 Senate	24/37	9/37	33/74	44.6%	1	165	441	T	456
2008 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	4	6	276	T	1,505
2004 President	52/56	22/56	74/112	66.1%	19	6	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	484/562	265/562	749/1124	66.6%

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