Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-08-25 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	267
Rep	271
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	200
Rep	240
Ind	0
Tos	98

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+2	0	+25	-1	0	-10	19	2	242	+15
Rep	+1	0	+10	-2	0	-25	29	3	261	-15
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
73	43	25	4	1

Analysis

This is just a 'bolt-from-the-blue' map, and is liable to be wrong. I will almost certainly make major changes depending on who the candidates are and what conditions are like closer to election day.

I decided for my first prediction to do the '3-state dance', like 2000-2004, but with Democrats getting 2 states (Ohio and Nevada) and Republicans 1 (Wisconsin). Amusingly, this gives 271-267, the same result as 2000. It would be sheer satire if Wisconsin did a Florida 2000....

I made a slight edit. I figure unless Giuliani is the nominee, then its safe to say New Jersey is lean dem and not tossup.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	50/56	38/56	88/112	78.6%	1	253	534	T	760
2008 President	47/56	26/56	73/112	65.2%	1	437	791	T	1,505
2004 President	46/56	30/56	76/112	67.9%	41	3	1441	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	143/168	94/168	237/336	70.5%

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