PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Firefly (D-FL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:7

Prediction Map
Firefly MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Firefly MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem375
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem286
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos89
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+100+123000202252+123
Rep000-100-123213163-123
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
100504343
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

All right, this is my final prediction, a mere six days before the election. As you can see, I've cut down the number of tossup states to six, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Even though they're tossups, they likely will not decide the election. Obama will win the Presidency with 286 electoral votes even if he loses all six of the tossup states. McCain's only hope is to win all of the tossup states and to steal either "Pennsylvania" or "Virginia and Colorado" or "Virginia and New Mexico." That will be near impossible, since Obama has a slight advantage in five of the six tossup states. Indiana, I see as a true tossup, the outcome of which we will probably not know until the day after, or perhaps days or weeks after, the election. North Carolina and Missouri will also be two of the final states called.

My prediction is for Obama to carry all six tossup states and win the Presidency in a landslide electoral college victory of 375-163. As for the popular vote, I predict Obama will defeat McCain 54%-46%.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Eytan (D-ISR) 2008-10-29 @ 16:18:54
Good map.
I hope Obama wins Indiana in the end.
prediction Map

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-31 @ 00:48:29
It's going to fun watching Indiana. It's a close one!prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 27/56 3/56 30/112 26.8% pie 1 391 675678
P 2012 President 55/56 51/56 106/112 94.6% pie 1 1 1T760
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 7 6 13T1,505
P 2004 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 33 1 706T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 185/224 136/224 321/448 71.7% pie


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