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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
nyquil_man Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nyquil_man Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep160
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
96494043
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is my final forecast. Barring a major upset, Senator Barack Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States and Senator Joseph Biden will be elected the 47th Vice President of the United States.

Popular vote forecast:

Senator Barack Obama/Senator Joseph Biden (D): 52.2%
Senator John McCain/Governor Sarah Palin (R): 45.5%
Other: 2.3%

State-by-state forecasts, as of 11/4:

Alabama
McCain 59.6
Obama 38.6
Other 1.8
Spread 21.1

Alaska
McCain 56.4
Obama 40.4
Other 3.1
Spread 16.0

Arizona
McCain 50.9
Obama 47.0
Other 2.1
Spread 3.8

Arkansas
McCain 53.7
Obama 44.5
Other 1.8
Spread 9.2

California
Obama 59.8
McCain 37.4
Other 2.9
Spread 22.4

Colorado
Obama 51.9
McCain 45.4
Other 2.7
Spread 6.4

Connecticut
Obama 59.0
McCain 38.4
Other 2.6
Spread 20.6

Delaware
Obama 59.6
McCain 38.1
Other 2.3
Spread 21.6

D. C.
Obama 89.1
McCain 8.8
Other 2.0
Spread 80.3

Florida
Obama 50.3
McCain 48.0
Other 1.8
Spread 2.3

Georgia
McCain 50.9
Obama 47.1
Other 2.1
Spread 3.8

Hawaii
Obama 64.3
McCain 32.8
Other 2.9
Spread 31.5

Idaho
McCain 61.3
Obama 35.6
Other 3.1
Spread 25.8

Illinois
Obama 60.5
McCain 37.5
Other 2.0
Spread 22.9

Indiana
McCain 50.2
Obama 47.8
Other 2.0
Spread 2.4

Iowa
Obama 55.1
McCain 42.7
Other 2.1
Spread 12.4

Kansas
McCain 56.1
Obama 41.1
Other 2.8
Spread 15.0

Kentucky
McCain 54.9
Obama 42.7
Other 2.3
Spread 12.2

Louisiana
McCain 53.7
Obama 44.6
Other 1.8
Spread 9.1

Maine
Obama 56.1
McCain 40.4
Other 3.5
Spread 15.7

Maryland
Obama 59.2
McCain 39.0
Other 1.8
Spread 20.2

Massachusetts
Obama 60.3
McCain 35.9
Other 3.7
Spread 24.4

Michigan
Obama 55.2
McCain 43.0
Other 1.8
Spread 12.2

Minnesota
Obama 54.7
McCain 42.0
Other 3.3
Spread 12.7

Mississippi
McCain 54.4
Obama 43.7
Other 1.9
Spread 10.7

Missouri
Obama 49.1
McCain 48.7
Other 2.2
Spread 0.4

Montana
McCain 50.3
Obama 46.5
Other 3.2
Spread 3.7

Nebraska
McCain 58.9
Obama 38.2
Other 2.9
Spread 20.7

Nevada
Obama 51.3
McCain 45.5
Other 3.2
Spread 5.8

New Hampshire
Obama 54.0
McCain 44.1
Other 1.9
Spread 9.9

New Jersey
Obama 56.8
McCain 41.0
Other 2.2
Spread 15.8

New Mexico
Obama 54.6
McCain 43.1
Other 2.3
Spread 11.5

New York
Obama 63.3
McCain 34.1
Other 2.6
Spread 29.2

North Carolina
Obama 49.2
McCain 49.1
Other 1.6
Spread 0.1

North Dakota
McCain 51.0
Obama 45.7
Other 3.3
Spread 5.4

Ohio
Obama 50.4
McCain 47.3
Other 2.3
Spread 3.1

Oklahoma
McCain 62.5
Obama 37.5
Other -
Spread 25.1

Oregon
Obama 55.9
McCain 40.6
Other 3.4
Spread 15.3

Pennsylvania
Obama 53.1
McCain 45.1
Other 1.9
Spread 8.0

Rhode Island
Obama 59.0
McCain 37.1
Other 3.9
Spread 22.0

South Carolina
McCain 54.6
Obama 43.6
Other 1.8
Spread 10.9

South Dakota
McCain 53.3
Obama 44.4
Other 2.3
Spread 8.8

Tennessee
McCain 55.3
Obama 43.1
Other 1.6
Spread 12.3

Texas
McCain 54.6
Obama 43.6
Other 1.8
Spread 11.0

Utah
McCain 60.9
Obama 35.6
Other 3.4
Spread 25.3

Vermont
Obama 60.3
McCain 36.0
Other 3.7
Spread 24.2

Virginia
Obama 51.2
McCain 47.0
Other 1.8
Spread 4.2

Washington
Obama 56.8
McCain 40.3
Other 2.9
Spread 16.5

West Virginia
McCain 52.2
Obama 45.5
Other 2.3
Spread 6.7

Wisconsin
Obama 54.5
McCain 42.6
Other 2.9
Spread 11.9

Wyoming
McCain 60.3
Obama 36.6
Other 3.1
Spread 23.8

As complete vote returns come in, I will check them against my forecast to see how close (or far) I was from the actual outcome.

My major concerns are MO and NC, which are both razor-thin margins and may well flip. A further concern is the third-party estimate, which is based on a combination of state/national polling and historical data and may be overly optimistic.

Anyway... we'll see.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nyquil_man (D-AR) 2008-12-01 @ 16:06:51
Update, 12/1:

Well, it was close but no cigar. As expected, I missed MO. I also missed IN and NE-2, missed percentages all over the place, and dramatically overestimated the third party vote (as I thought I would). So, while my overall EV projection (364-174) was close, it was in the wrong states.

Percentage errors are below. Negative numbers represent underestimations; positive numbers represent overestimations:

National
Obama 52.2 Error (0.5)
McCain 45.5 Error (0.3)
Spread 6.7 Error 0.2

Alabama
McCain 59.6 Error (0.7)
Obama 38.6 Error (0.1)
Spread 21.0 Error (0.6)

Alaska
McCain 56.4 Error (3.1)
Obama 40.4 Error 2.6
Spread 16.0 Error (5.7)

Arizona
McCain 50.9 Error (2.7)
Obama 47.0 Error 1.9
Spread 3.9 Error (4.6)

Arkansas
McCain 53.7 Error (5.1)
Obama 44.5 Error 5.7
Spread 9.2 Error (10.8)

California
Obama 59.8 Error (1.2)
McCain 37.4 Error 0.3
Spread 22.4 Error 1.5

Colorado
Obama 51.9 Error (1.6)
McCain 45.4 Error 0.5
Spread 6.5 Error 2.2

Connecticut
Obama 59.0 Error (1.7)
McCain 38.4 Error 0.3
Spread 20.6 Error 2.0

Delaware
Obama 59.6 Error (2.3)
McCain 38.1 Error 1.2
Spread 21.5 Error 3.5

D. C.
Obama 89.1 Error (3.4)
McCain 8.8 Error 2.3
Spread 80.3 Error 5.6

Florida
Obama 50.3 Error (0.6)
McCain 48.0 Error (0.1)
Spread 2.3 Error 0.5

Georgia
McCain 50.9 Error (1.3)
Obama 47.1 Error 0.2
Spread 3.8 Error (1.4)

Hawaii
Obama 64.3 Error (7.6)
McCain 32.8 Error 6.2
Spread 31.5 Error 13.8

Idaho
McCain 61.3 Error -
Obama 35.6 Error (0.4)
Spread 25.7 Error 0.4

Illinois
Obama 60.5 Error (1.3)
McCain 37.5 Error 0.6
Spread 23.0 Error 1.9

Indiana
McCain 50.2 Error 1.3
Obama 47.8 Error (2.1)
Spread 2.4 Error 3.4

Iowa
Obama 55.1 Error 1.2
McCain 42.7 Error (1.7)
Spread 12.4 Error (2.9)

Kansas
McCain 56.1 Error (0.7)
Obama 41.1 Error (0.3)
Spread 15.0 Error (0.4)

Kentucky
McCain 54.9 Error (2.5)
Obama 42.7 Error 1.6
Spread 12.2 Error (4.0)

Louisiana
McCain 53.7 Error (4.9)
Obama 44.6 Error 4.7
Spread 9.1 Error (9.5)

Maine
Obama 56.1 Error (1.6)
McCain 40.4 Error 0.0
Spread 15.7 Error 1.6

Maryland
Obama 59.2 Error (2.7)
McCain 39.0 Error 2.5
Spread 20.2 Error 5.2

Massachusetts
Obama 60.3 Error (1.7)
McCain 35.9 Error (0.4)
Spread 24.4 Error 1.3

Michigan
Obama 55.2 Error (2.2)
McCain 43.0 Error 2.1
Spread 12.2 Error 4.2

Minnesota
Obama 54.7 Error 0.6
McCain 42.0 Error (1.8)
Spread 12.7 Error (2.5)

Mississippi
McCain 54.4 Error (2.1)
Obama 43.7 Error 1.0
Spread 10.7 Error (3.0)

Missouri
Obama 49.1 Error (0.2)
McCain 48.7 Error (0.7)
Spread 0.4 Error (0.6)

Montana
McCain 50.3 Error 0.8
Obama 46.5 Error (0.7)
Spread 3.8 Error 1.5

Nebraska
McCain 58.9 Error 2.1
Obama 38.2 Error (3.1)
Spread 20.7 Error 5.2

Nevada
Obama 51.3 Error (3.9)
McCain 45.5 Error 2.9
Spread 5.8 Error 6.7

New Hampshire
Obama 54.0 Error (0.1)
McCain 44.1 Error (0.4)
Spread 9.9 Error (0.3)

New Jersey
Obama 56.8 Error 0.1
McCain 41.0 Error (1.3)
Spread 15.8 Error (1.4)

New Mexico
Obama 54.6 Error (2.3)
McCain 43.1 Error 1.3
Spread 11.5 Error 3.6

New York
Obama 63.3 Error 1.1
McCain 34.1 Error (2.6)
Spread 29.2 Error (3.7)

North Carolina
Obama 49.2 Error (0.5)
McCain 49.1 Error (0.3)
Spread 0.1 Error 0.2

North Dakota
McCain 51.0 Error (2.1)
Obama 45.7 Error 1.2
Spread 5.3 Error (3.3)

Ohio
Obama 50.4 Error (0.5)
McCain 47.3 Error 0.0
Spread 3.1 Error 0.6

Oklahoma
McCain 62.5 Error (3.1)
Obama 37.5 Error 3.2
Spread 25.0 Error (6.3)

Oregon
Obama 55.9 Error (0.9)
McCain 40.6 Error 0.2
Spread 15.3 Error 1.1

Pennsylvania
Obama 53.1 Error (1.5)
McCain 45.1 Error 0.8
Spread 8.0 Error 2.3

Rhode Island
Obama 59.0 Error (4.1)
McCain 37.1 Error 1.9
Spread 21.9 Error 6.0

South Carolina
McCain 54.6 Error 0.7
Obama 43.6 Error (1.3)
Spread 11.0 Error 2.0

South Dakota
McCain 53.3 Error 0.1
Obama 44.4 Error (0.4)
Spread 8.9 Error 0.5

Tennessee
McCain 55.3 Error (1.6)
Obama 43.1 Error 1.3
Spread 12.2 Error (3.0)

Texas
McCain 54.6 Error (0.8)
Obama 43.6 Error (0.1)
Spread 11.0 Error (0.8)

Utah
McCain 60.9 Error (1.4)
Obama 35.6 Error 1.3
Spread 25.3 Error (2.8)

Vermont
Obama 60.3 Error (7.2)
McCain 36.0 Error 5.6
Spread 24.3 Error 12.7

Virginia
Obama 51.2 Error (1.4)
McCain 47.0 Error 0.7
Spread 4.2 Error 2.1

Washington
Obama 56.8 Error (0.7)
McCain 40.3 Error (0.0)
Spread 16.5 Error 0.6

West Virginia
McCain 52.2 Error (3.5)
Obama 45.5 Error 2.9
Spread 6.7 Error (6.4)

Wisconsin
Obama 54.5 Error (1.8)
McCain 42.6 Error 0.2
Spread 11.9 Error 2.0

Wyoming
McCain 60.3 Error (4.5)
Obama 36.6 Error 4.1
Spread 23.7 Error (8.5)

Last Edit: 2008-12-01 @ 16:10:00
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 5 56T
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 25 0 74T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 27/33 60/66 90.9% pie 5 0 3T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 5 0 6T
P 2004 President 49/56 35/56 84/112 75.0% pie 3 65 834T
Aggregate Predictions 171/183 135/183 306/366 83.6% pie


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