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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:1
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
This election will be close.
Due to the bad economy and a better Dem turnout, Obama will win MI, IA, NM, CO, WI, OH, PA. NC and VA both have areas which vote Dem (VA: Richmond, Hampton Roads, N. VA - NC: Ashville, NW NC, the Triangle) compared to the rest of the state. This will enable Obama to narrowly win VA but lose NC narrowly. VA is a track record for electing Dem Govs and a Den Sen. in '06. Execept for the Governor, I don't see the same in NC. A special note about NV and OH. They will depend on which side better has the better GOTV operation. I see this leading the Dems to win OH (minus any GOP tricks on election night) and NV narrowly - and win!
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