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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:1

Prediction Map
hoshie Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
hoshie Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep227
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem190
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
Tos174
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+60+59000202252+59
Rep000-60-59253227-59
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
83483041
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This election will be close.

Due to the bad economy and a better Dem turnout, Obama will win MI, IA, NM, CO, WI, OH, PA. NC and VA both have areas which vote Dem (VA: Richmond, Hampton Roads, N. VA - NC: Ashville, NW NC, the Triangle) compared to the rest of the state. This will enable Obama to narrowly win VA but lose NC narrowly. VA is a track record for electing Dem Govs and a Den Sen. in '06. Execept for the Governor, I don't see the same in NC. A special note about NV and OH. They will depend on which side better has the better GOTV operation. I see this leading the Dems to win OH (minus any GOP tricks on election night) and NV narrowly - and win!


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 1 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 14 265T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 3 94T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 14/37 48/74 64.9% pie 3 2 265T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 19 56T
P 2008 President 52/56 31/56 83/112 74.1% pie 1 6 404T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 6 117T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 6 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 31 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 15/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 3 207T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 2 0 93T
P 2004 President 54/56 20/56 74/112 66.1% pie 6 1 1527T
Aggregate Predictions 345/358 185/358 530/716 74.0% pie


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