Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Election Data

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:1

Prediction Map
hoshie Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
hoshie Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	227
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	190
Rep	174
Ind	0
Tos	174

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+59	0	0	0	20	2	252	+59
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-59	25	3	227	-59
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
83	48	30	4	1

Analysis

This election will be close.

Due to the bad economy and a better Dem turnout, Obama will win MI, IA, NM, CO, WI, OH, PA. NC and VA both have areas which vote Dem (VA: Richmond, Hampton Roads, N. VA - NC: Ashville, NW NC, the Triangle) compared to the rest of the state. This will enable Obama to narrowly win VA but lose NC narrowly. VA is a track record for electing Dem Govs and a Den Sen. in '06. Execept for the Governor, I don't see the same in NC. A special note about NV and OH. They will depend on which side better has the better GOTV operation. I see this leading the Dems to win OH (minus any GOP tricks on election night) and NV narrowly - and win!

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	3	14	265	T
2012 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	6	3	94	T
2010 Senate	34/37	14/37	48/74	64.9%	3	2	265	T
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	19	56	T
2008 President	52/56	31/56	83/112	74.1%	1	6	404	T
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	1	6	117	T
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	6	86	T
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	31	58	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	15/33	48/66	72.7%	4	3	207	T
2006 Governor	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	2	0	93	T
2004 President	54/56	20/56	74/112	66.1%	6	1	1527	T
Aggregate Predictions	343/356	184/356	527/712	74.0%