Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-10-28 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	301
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	74

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
88	51	31	4	2

Analysis

Ignore the colors on the prediction map, I'm just going for who will win, not by what percentage.

The economy has hit MI and OH hard enough that they're fairly safe for Obama. A lot of the battlegrounds still have some question marks. My home of VA, for example; will the conservative rural and military votes outweigh the liberal inner-cities, college towns, and northern VA? Judging from the yard signs I've seen in some neighborhoods, McCain has a fight on his hands.

I don't think it's a question any longer of will Obama win, but rather by how much. And will McCain come to regret his selection of Palin, which has cost him crucial support among moderates and independents such as myself?

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	55/56	33/56	88/112	78.6%	3	7	276	T	1,505
2008 Senate	29/33	10/33	39/66	59.1%	1	7	358	T	407
2004 President	53/56	19/56	72/112	64.3%	6	1	1581	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	137/145	62/145	199/290	68.6%

Links

Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home