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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-28 Version:3

Prediction Map
MatthewZD Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
MatthewZD Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem301
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos74
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
88513142
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Ignore the colors on the prediction map, I'm just going for who will win, not by what percentage.

The economy has hit MI and OH hard enough that they're fairly safe for Obama. A lot of the battlegrounds still have some question marks. My home of VA, for example; will the conservative rural and military votes outweigh the liberal inner-cities, college towns, and northern VA? Judging from the yard signs I've seen in some neighborhoods, McCain has a fight on his hands.

I don't think it's a question any longer of will Obama win, but rather by how much. And will McCain come to regret his selection of Palin, which has cost him crucial support among moderates and independents such as myself?


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 55/56 33/56 88/112 78.6% pie 3 7 276T
P 2008 Senate 29/33 10/33 39/66 59.1% pie 1 7 358T
P 2004 President 53/56 19/56 72/112 64.3% pie 6 1 1581T
Aggregate Predictions 137/145 62/145 199/290 68.6% pie


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