Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-30 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	375
Rep	163
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	145
Ind	0
Tos	82

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+10	0	+123	0	0	0	20	2	252	+123
Rep	0	0	0	-10	0	-123	21	3	163	-123
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
97	50	41	4	2

Analysis

Obama has solidified his leads in Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and the Midwest. He tentatively has the advantage in Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and Florida, and could very well win several current swing states such as Indiana.

His popular vote victory margin may be inflated due to Obama polling very well in many core Democratic states (CA, WA, OR, IL, MI, NY, MD).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	30/35	23/35	53/70	75.7%	1	1	224	T	305
2020 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	1	6	502	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	20/35	51/70	72.9%	1	4	241	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	6	51	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	22/35	54/70	77.1%	1	1	106	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	1	3	205	T	372
2016 President	44/56	21/56	65/112	58.0%	3	1	624	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	2	0	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	4/12	13/24	54.2%	1	16	119	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	22/36	55/72	76.4%	4	3	122	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	6	3	145	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	31	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	51/56	106/112	94.6%	2	17	1	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	2	7	20	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	7	24	T	228
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	2	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	2	5	59	T	312
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	2	5	55	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	2	10	133	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	13/36	46/72	63.9%	2	209	192	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	620/683	411/683	1031/1366	75.5%

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