PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - ottermax () ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-04-04 Version:13

Prediction Map
ottermax MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ottermax MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton18
 
Edwards0
 
Obama34
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton11
 
Edwards0
 
Obama14
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup27
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
744826
piepiepie

Analysis

The next few weeks aren't great for Obama... yuck.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 12

Texas, Texas, Texas. I predict a large black turn out and the Hispanic vote to be less overwhelming toward Clinton. A tight race, so the results won't be known until Wednesday. By then it will be a tie no matter what. Clinton may win a close primary, but Obama will definitely win the caucus and the delegates. I still will be optimistic and call it for Obama.


Version: 11

Clinton depends on three states: Ohio, Texas, and Penn.
If Obama can win Texas and Ohio, he wins the nomination for sure. If Obama can win one of the above, then he will be in the lead. If he loses both by small margins the race remains a draw.
If Obama loses Ohio and Texas by large margins, he needs to win Pennsylvania.
If Obama loses all three by large margins, he is not in good shape. He just needs to win one, or be close in all.
Go OBAMA!


Version: 10

Update for tomorrow.


Version: 9

This is my final Super Tuesday Prediction. It may be too optimistic, but I'm rooting for hope.


Version: 8

Now it is officially a two-person race (not counting gravel...)


Version: 7

Edwards looks to be losing vote, making this a two-person race. Even South Carolina received 50%, so I changed all of mine to be mostly greater than 40%


Version: 6

Clinton wins Nevada...


Version: 4

I see a decline in the polls for Obama, and I have more information. I doubt that race will be a huge issue, but the slight Hispanic-Black racial tensions could bring the SW to Cinton.


Version: 3

Mostly random on most states for now.


Version: 1

I'm very unsure of this prediction, so I have very low confidence ratings and a rather uniform percentage prediction.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 245
P 2022 Senate 34/35 26/35 60/70 85.7% pie 1 1 48T305
P 2020 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 3 6 35T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 23/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 4 137T423
P 2016 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 224 182T760
P 2012 Senate 26/33 11/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 246 291T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 21/52 68/104 65.4% pie 12 - 13T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 6 3 86T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 25/37 60/74 81.1% pie 5 1 45T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 53 41T103
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 17 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 4 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 15 3T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 48/52 26/52 74/104 71.2% pie 13 - 3T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 15/49 55/98 56.1% pie 11 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 174 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 12 4 20T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 15 3 58T312
P 2004 President 52/56 27/56 79/112 70.5% pie 2 6 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 715/774 470/774 1185/1548 76.6% pie


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