PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - padfoot714 (D-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-31 Version:21

Prediction Map
padfoot714 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
padfoot714 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton12
 
Edwards0
 
Obama40
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton11
 
Edwards0
 
Obama30
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup11
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
654223
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Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 20

Clinton wins big in West Virginia. 60% is probably her floor there.

Obama takes Oregon by around 6-10 points. Clinton wins Kentucky by 12-16 points.

Puerto Rico will be interesting IMO. Clinton has traditionally done well with Hispanics but Puerto Ricans aren't the same as mainland Hispanics. Clinton has the support of the liberal pro-statehood people but Obama has the support of the island's governor who supports continued commonwealth status.

Obama should win South Dakota and Montana fairly easily.


Version: 18

Despite the fact that many people feel Pennsylvania is a lock for Clinton a lot can happen in 6 weeks. Already people are starting to speculate that Clinton has peaked too early here. That's not to say it will be a cakewalk for Obama though. He has a major uphill battle to fight here in order to win. I will probably change my prediction here at least once before the primary, likely during the week preceding it.

Next up are IN and NC. NC looks like favorable territory for Obama. The results will probably somewhere between VA and SC, maybe a 58-42 victory? Indiana will be interesting. Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs should favor Obama but the rest of the state will probably be good for Clinton. I'm hoping for a Missouri squeaker at worst but it could also end up being an Ohio blowout.

Next is West Virginia which after seeing the results in Southeast Ohio I just can't imagine Hillary getting less than 65% here.

Next up are Kentucky and Oregon. Oregon should be pretty good for Obama but 55% is probably his ceiling. Kentucky will be strong for Clinton but I'm holding out hope that the 7% black population will keep her under 60%.

PR has been moved to June 1st so it comes next. A campaign here would be very interesting IMO. Puerto Ricans are essentially all Latinos but they are likely not going to be voting the same as mainland Latinos. The major issue on the island is the future of its political status, not illegal immigration and all the issues flying around it. Obama has the endorsement of the island's governor so that should give him a decent boost here.

Finally you have SD and MT primaries which are hard to predict since all similar states have been caucuses but if Obama's support is strong enough to net him enormous leads in caucuses it should be enough to get him some respectable wins in these primaries.

As of March 14th Michigan and Florida are still without solutions to their primary problems. However, should a revote occur Clinton would probably win Florida 55-45 and Michigan would be a close 50-50 with Obama perhaps having an edge.


Version: 17

MS and WY, although small, will blunt Clinton's momentum coming out of March 4th. This along with a 6 week campaign in PA will be beneficial to Obama and could potentially put him over the top there. His ability to win there hinges on him becoming more aggressive though. He can't let Hillary question his experience and then go around touting her bogus 35 years of experience claim.

Next up are IN and NC. NC looks like favorable territory for Obama. The results will probably somewhere between VA and SC, maybe 58-42? Indiana will be interesting. Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs should favor Obama but the rest of the state will probably be good for Clinton. I'm hoping for a Missouri squeaker at worst but it could also end up being an Ohio blowout.

Next is West Virginia which after seeing the results in Southeast Ohio I just can't imagine Hillary getting less than 65% here.

Next up are Kentucky and Oregon. Oregon should be pretty good for Obama but 55% is probably his ceiling. Kentucky will be strong for Clinton but I'm holding out hope that the 7% black population will keep her under 60%.

PR has been moved to June 1st so it comes next. I really don't have any idea on this one but I think the governor endorsed Obama so I gave it to him. A campaign here would be very interesting IMO.

Finally you have SD and MT primaries which are hard to predict since all similar states have been caucuses but if Obama's support is strong enough to net him enormous leads in caucuses it should be enough to get him some respectable wins in these primaries.


Version: 15

I think Obama has the potential to sweep March 4th. Vermont is almost assured for him, Texas looks to be pretty promising based on recent upward trends and their strange delegate allotment, Ohio will be difficult but a narrow win is possible, RI actually looks like it will end up being the hardest one to crack for Obama due to demographics and the fact that he probably won't campaign there.

Even if he loses either Ohio or Texas I think Hillary will probably drop out. She can't continue unless she wins both.


Version: 8

I can haz the Audacity of Hope.


Version: 6

First off, Edwards is done. I think he'll be lucky to break 10% in most of the remaining states.

On the Obama front, the uphill battle continues but I still think a win is within his grasp. If he can win decisively enough in South Carolina it will give him some momentum going into February.

Florida is probably going to go for Hillary but I'm not expecting her to break 53% nor do I expect Obama to get less than 44%.

Going into Super Tuesday I think Obama may have an advantage in the Southeast and the Midwest while Clinton will have the advantage in the Southwest and the Northeast. I think Obama may come out of this contest with a slight advantage and I also think the primaries immediately following favor him. Thus after Maryland, DC, and Virginia vote he will be the clear frontrunner and take the rest of the states.


Version: 5

From what I've seen, Obama's loss in NH has made his supporters even more determined to beat Clinton. Also, it appears that the unions have realized Obama is their best shot. That in addition to the myriad of recent endorsements he's received will hopefully give him the upper hand in Nevada. A win there will boost his already sizable lead in SC. On Feb 5th Hillary will take a few states but Obama will dominate and clinch the nomination.


Version: 4

Obama continues to ride high in NH and SC winning those contests decisively and essentially ending the Edwards campaign. Clinton clings to life in Michigan as independents mostly vote for McCain in the GOP primary rather than voting uncommitted. Obama only manages to squeak by in Florida because he didn't campaign there. He then goes on to dominate Super Tuesday losing Hillary's home states and California simply due to shear size. After that he wins everything easily.


Version: 3

I can't make up my mind on how to rate states that are way far down the line so I have a strange sort of patchwork going on for the strong/lean/toss-up map. I think Obama has a real chance to win it now though. He won across all demographics in Iowa. Plus, Clinton finished behind Edwards so she is in pretty bad shape. Unless Obama makes a big mistake I don't see him going down easily.


Version: 1

Obama manages to barely edge out Clinton in Iowa with Edwards in a semi-respectable third. In New Hampshire Clinton manages to successfully use her overwhelming amounts of influence and cash and her stronger footing here to prevent Obama from taking her down. Edwards places in a distant third and most disregard him as having no hope. Clinton then goes on to easily win in Michigan and Nevada. Obama's strength among blacks keeps Clinton from completely running away with South Carolina but after another decisive win in Florida Obama just can't seem to catch her. Illinois refuses to give up hope for their native son but every other super Tuesday state hands the nomination to Clinton. Obama concedes defeat and the Democrat primary is essentially over.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 88 274T423
P 2016 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 1 1 194T678
P 2014 Senate 29/36 19/36 48/72 66.7% pie 3 49 240T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 14/36 41/72 56.9% pie 1 454 224T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 10 98T153
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 6 3 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 6 3 56T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 3 14 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 32/52 7/52 39/104 37.5% pie 14 - 111T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 2 107 37T106
P 2010 Senate 36/37 26/37 62/74 83.8% pie 17 2 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 10 2 29T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 25 56T103
P 2008 President 53/56 48/56 101/112 90.2% pie 52 0 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 27/33 60/66 90.9% pie 22 6 1T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 9 14 27T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 23/52 65/104 62.5% pie 21 - 28T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 36/49 19/49 55/98 56.1% pie 19 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 6 164 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 13 2 46T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 14 1 10T312
Aggregate Predictions 589/670 397/670 986/1340 73.6% pie


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