Barack Obama will be the democratic nominee.

I will be casting my first vote for a republican president this fall when I vote Mc Cain.

Thank you all for the discussions.

If the undecideds go to Hillary in North Carolina and the white working class vote is strong for her in western and rural North Carolina she may be able to pull off a 50/50 and offset some of the African American vote in the cities still a long shot but I think it will be closer then some expect even if she loses 2-6 points its a victory in a way, He had been up by 20 points after Pennsylvania.

I think she wins Indiana comfortably by at least 5 points.

Obama appears to be gaining some lost ground ever so slightly in North Carolina however he is hovering around the 49-51% mark and undecideds in other states tend to go to Clinton so it still could be a very close race, that shouldn't be because the demographics there should solidly favor him. He should be ahead by around 15-20 percent with the states demographics.

Indiana early on was expected due to the demographics to be close as each candidate has area's of strength in the state. However Hillary is pulling ahead of obama who was about tied with her after Pennsylvania.

See you in Denver.

Obama appears to be gaining some lost ground ever so slightly in North Carolina however he is hovering around the 49-51% mark and undecideds in other states tend to go to Clinton so it still could be a very close race, that shouldn't be because the demographics there should solidly favor him. He should be ahead by around 15-20 percent with the states demographics.

Indiana early on was expected due to the demographics to be close as each candidate has area's of strength in the state. However Hillary is pulling ahead of obama who was about tied with her after Pennsylvania.

See you in Denver.

Obama was having difficulties in Indiana,

But North Carolina?

He was leading Clinton by over 20 points after Pennsylvania with just 4 days now to the North Carolina and Indiana primaries. He is in low single digits in North Carolina and Clinton is even leading in some recent polling coming out of the state. This was his firewall of the two states.



Post Wright and the Easley endorsement....


See you in Denver,

Post Wright and the Easley endorsement....


See you in Denver,

For all those comments about my map being nonsense and comedy, I didnt care then and guess what I REALLY dont now! Although there is a bit of a laugh in my tone now. March 4 would be the source of this new found humor.I have a state score of 38 and missed one state from the time I began. My percentage score is low because I did not change many to the 50% winner margin after Mr Edwards dropped out before Super Tuesday. Since scores appear to matter for some commenting.

I didnt change my prediction the day before the race to keep a high score based on overnight polling. I went with what I thought was possible, with the current polling data demographic's of the particular state and likely turnout in various demographics. I chose not to render a verdict on the race as a whole.

Both Candidates have proven that they will fight for this nomination. It would be foolish to write off eithier one of them, or state that eithier one can not win. Odds may favor one or the other at a certain time but March 4 proved that we need to take it one day at a time as this race has been all over the place.

This race is not over, No matter how much the pundits and media would like it to be due to their own bias.

Lets let the voters of the DEMOCRATIC PARTY select its nominee by the system it has established for itself. Lets have the process follow the course created by the party itself. For myself, it remains to be seen if I will be able to support the final ticket selected.

Clinton will win Ohio and Texas which will keep the race tied up. Im not sure how this will play out but Im confident its going to the convention floor because neithier candidate will drop out unless told to do so by the DNC. Lets see what the voters and superdelegates have to say

The only change reflected here is my willingness to put the Maine caucus tossup Clinton as I think if they put time into it Clinton could beat Obama narrowly there.

Again Virginia and Washington should be hands down Obama but if any upsets are to be had in the immediate primaries to follow super tuesday its one of these. Washington Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell have recently endorsed Hillary Clinton?... A Clinton win in any upcoming February primary or caucus is a serious blow to obama as the media is hyping him as the frontrunner in those contests .

Again the race is about delegates and super delegates not how many states you win. I think if Hillary is successful in the upper south (outside virginia) and Ohio. She will be in an even better position to take Texas then Pennsylvania the large states that will have an impact on the final delegate count.

First update of several several (im sure) to follow after super tie tuesday.

Obama appears to have the money and momentum going into the primaries and caucuses coming up in February. He appears to organize the caucus system better than Hillary Clinton something she'll need to address in order to keep the race going as far as the delegate count. Obama is also going into primaries in states that have the largest african american population voting blocs that will vote for him no matter what.
Maryland Dc and many parts of Virginia. I believe Hillary will adopt a large state strategy and Bill Clinton may work the smaller states for delegates that will not be outright wins. Hillary will lose the atlantic primaries but still win delegates. If Hillary were to upset Obama the frontrunner in any of these upcoming states(Washington Maine Virginia her best outside shots ) and caucuses that would be a huge blow as the media has given him a hype and outright expected wins! in all the February states...
This race is not about how many states you win Its about delegates and super delegates.....

My last prediction on the eve of Super Tuesday :

Obama gaining momentum fueled by the pro obama media
As a staunch diehard Clinton supporter I hope it doesnt translate into wins and votes. The delegate count will be so razor thin that no one will be a front runner. The obama campaign will spin so called momentum into a "WIN"

The polls are all over the place so I could be wrong on a number of these states. Obama is gaining serious momentum in the Northeast with the last polls of the evening showing Massachusetts and Connecticut too close too call.
New York will be a Clinton strong hold. Obama has also campaigned in Delaware and a strong showing in Wilmington could put him over the edge there. Clinton is still strong in Arkansas and Tennessee. Alabama should be strong Obama but it is too close to call. Missouri and Minnesota are close but I think Obama will have the edge. Obama stronghold Illinois, Kansas and North Dakota could go to obama with high voter turnouts. Colorado and Idaho strong Obama.The southwest will remain Clintons with high voter turnout of women and hispanics? California is the last main tossup and most delegate rich, with many absentee's cast early right after New Hampshire this could put Clinton over the top by a few points but a close delegate count.

I hope that most of my tossups go to the best qualified candidate to be president and that people see that it takes someone with a record of change to produce change. It takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush

Hillary Rodham Clinton 2008

(I have not conceded this nomination make no mistake)

Updated Feb 2

I have updated the Super Tuesday states which polls appear to be all over the place The states that come after are just a wild guess as the candidates have no campaigned there yet
Clinton still appears to have the edge on Super Tuesday although I think the delegate count will be razor thin for whoever wins that the race goes on.....

As of january 15:

I have moved South Carolina from Edwards to Obama as I think the african american vote will put him over Clinton by around 5pts Edwards despite being a southern doesnt appear to have a home state/region advantage? I thought he might early on? I think again it will be a result of a split african american vote between clinton and obama not leaving him with much there. Again I have made predictions for the super tuesday states and only a few others afterward as this race is all over the place. Momentum appears to change by the day I still believe Hillary holds a big edge on Super Tuesday whether or not that is damaging enough to Obama and Edwards or not remains to be seen as does Momentum on future primaries afterward?? As always to be continued

As of january 14:

All states are tossups as this race is all over the place I think the only solid states are Illinois Arkansas and New York
Everything else is in play vs Clinton Obama I Think Edwards drops out after Super Tuesday when it is readily clear this is between two solid candidates. It will only get muddy from here folks were in for a ride I have only made a prediction up to the super tuesday states Clinton 2008 !

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