Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-06-03 Version:15

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	31
Edwards	0
Obama	21
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	20
Edwards	0
Obama	12
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	20

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
64	39	25

Analysis

I'm a little bit pissed that I changed my Puerto Rico analysis a few days ago based on the premise that there was going to be a caucus in the middle of June and that's what the points would be based on...and then the site used the primary. So just for the record...I knew that Hillary Clinton was going to get more than 60% in the primary. I just adjusted to show a smaller win for a caucus later in June cause I figure at that point her candidacy would be suspended and she wouldn't win by as much. And I think that if the administrator realized that the numbers used were going to be those of the primary, and not some future caucus...then he REALLY should have changed the dates on the site before predictions were taken down so we knew what he was talking about before he started taking away points. That's all. FUCKING LAME.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	2	108	T	115
2022 Senate	30/35	22/35	52/70	74.3%	7	1	243	T	305
2022 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	7	1	228	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	7	1	T	118
2020 President	46/56	30/56	76/112	67.9%	5	6	655	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	6	211	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	3	14	T	192
2018 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	8	0	106	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	29/36	61/72	84.7%	7	2	6	T	372
2017 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	2	98	T	149
2016 President	52/56	33/56	85/112	75.9%	8	0	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%	6	0	60	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	8/12	18/24	75.0%	6	0	3	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	1	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	16	0	4	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	16	0	22	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	1	1	T	153
2012 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	11	1	702	T	760
2012 Senate	23/33	10/33	33/66	50.0%	5	1	319	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	179	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	20/52	63/104	60.6%	25	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	2	34	12	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	20	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	20	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	10	1	T	103
2008 President	45/56	28/56	73/112	65.2%	21	0	791	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	22/33	52/66	78.8%	9	0	81	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	9	0	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	39/52	25/52	64/104	61.5%	15	-	33		271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	22/49	63/98	64.3%	14	-	7	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	51	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	21/33	51/66	77.3%	9	1	133	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	23/36	59/72	81.9%	9	1	36	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	18	1	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	860/994	582/994	1442/1988	72.5%

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