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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-04 Version:1

Prediction Map
Mike Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Mike Map


Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton18
 
Edwards6
 
Obama25
 
Richardson2
 
Other1
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton17
 
Edwards5
 
Obama23
 
Richardson2
 
Other0
 
Tossup5
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
19190
piepiepie

Analysis

Early days, but I expect Obama to win the nomination. In fact, I'm being rather cautious with this map and wouldn't be surprised if the victory was more decisive (Disclaimer: This is written the day after the IA caucuses, so enthusiasm might be getting the better of me here.)

I expect Bill Richardson to win his home state of New Mexico and Puerto Rico, permitted he hasn't dropped out by that point. I also expect Edwards to drop out at some point.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 52/56 30/56 82/112 73.2% pie 4 86 442T
P 2008 Dem Primary 19/52 0/52 19/104 18.3% pie 1 - 204T
P 2004 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 14 2 10T
Aggregate Predictions 126/164 74/164 200/328 61.0% pie


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