McCain has it in the bag.

McCain wins Hawaii, Florida, and Maine with >30%. He dominates Super Tuesday and becomes the clear front runner.

Romney wins Nevada and Huckabee takes SC with McCain coming in strong seconds in both contests keeping him in the race. Thompson finally drops out after failing to break 10%.

Huckabee squeaks out a win in Florida with McCain close on his heels. Romney comes in a respectable third as well. Giuliani finishes in an embarassing fourth but he still won't drop out until after Feb 5th.

McCain wins Maine decisively.

Super Tuesday mostly ends up being a contest between McCain and Huckabee. Romney takes Utah and Giuliani takes New York. Giuliani finally concedes defeat. Romney sticks it out after finishing 2nd in many states as he is still competitive delegate-wise.

Huckabee gets some early wins in Louisiana and Kansas but the remaining schedule favors McCain immensely and he goes on to win the nomination.

McCain uses his NH victory to eke out a narrow win in Michigan with both Huckabee and Romney close behind; Giuliani and Paul tie for 4th; all others at 1% or less.

South Carolina goes heavily for Huckabee with Romney and McCain battling for third. Thompson comes in 4th well behind the leaders but well ahead of all others; he ends his campaign. Nevada is another close three way race but McCain comes out on top; Giuliani and Paul tie for 4th again.

During the long gap before Florida, Huckabee and McCain raise a large amount of funds enabling them to effectively utilize their momentum going into the expensive media markets in the state. A McCain win in Hawaii goes unnoticed. In Florida, Huckabee ultimately triumphs, with McCain in a solid second. Romney trails in third and Giuliani bombs as expected, perhaps finishing below Paul who drops out.

Despite trailing the two front-runners, Romney and Giuliani vow to continue on to Super Tuesday. In the meantime, McCain and Huckabee continue amassing more cash as it becomes clear they are the favorites. McCain quietly wins Maine.

On Super Tuesday, Giuliani manages to win NY and Romney takes Utah but the day ultimately belongs to McCain and Huckabee. McCain wins mostly in the West and Northeast while Huckabee dominates the South. Both Romney and Giuliani leave the race.

Huckabee does well initially in Kansas and Louisiana but the remaining calendar (and GE polls) favor McCain. It becomes clear he is far more electable than Huckabee and McCain wins all the remaining contests.

McCain wins in NH with Romney second$ and Huckabee third. In Michigan independents flock to the Republican primary along with some Democrats pushing McCain into first again, Romney and Huckabee tie for second. Huckabee wins South Carolina and McCain jumps into second there with Romney in a disappointing third. McCain and Romney are very close in Nevada that day. Thompson drops out. McCain wins Hawaii unnoticed and then squeaks out another close one in Florida. McCain again quietly wins Maine. By Super Tuesday it is clearly a contest between McCain and Huckabee but Romney sticks in it. McCain dominates most Northern and Western states while Huckabee does well in the South and Plains. Romney takes only Utah and Giuliani manages to take New York as well. However, both those candidates drop out afterward. Huckabee gets a miniboost on Feb 9th but McCain dominates thereafter to clinch the victory.

Romney's embarrassing 9 point loss in Iowa will likely be the end of his campaign. McCain will probably win NH and Huckabee will likely take SC. Michigan remains up in the air for now. McCain will probably do very well there if he wins NH. I think he is very well positioned to win the whole thing at this point.

This race is just way too nuts right now. What started out for me as essentially a joke McCain victory has now become a distinct possibility. Some people may disagree with me in predicting Romney losing NH after winning Iowa but McCain has gotten tons of endorsements there of late and he appears to be doing even better in Iowa than he was in 2000. IMO a strong third place there will be enough to carry him to victory in NH which will propel him forward to take the nomination. I'm expecting Romney and McCain to dominate after the first two states do their voting but Huckabee could be a strong enough force to win a few states aside from Arkansas or at least have significant influence at the convention if no candidate wins a majority. Thompson is going to bomb after Iowa if he even breaks 10% there. He's demonstrated absolutely no enthusiasm or ability to inspire. And as for Giuliani, he is completely finished. Its unlikely that he'll break 10% in Iowa or NH at this point which is going to kill him in all the other states voting before Florida and Super Tuesday. By the time those two events roll around there won't be enough oxygen left in the room for Giuliani. His support was shaky and based on assumed electability from the start so its no surprise that people have so quickly jumped ship to candidates running on more than 9/11.

Padfoot's McCain Miracle 2008!!!!!!

In Iowa Huckabee barely breaks 30% with Romney close on his heels in the high 20s as expected. McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani essentially tie for third at around 10-15% each.

Going into New Hampshire Romney is the favorite. Huckabee's win in Iowa gives him a bit more attention but he is still not considered one of the front runners here. McCain kicks it into overdrive. Giuliani continues to stick to his Feb. 5th Firewall strategy. End result: Romney 29%, McCain 25%, Huckabee 19%, Giuliani 16% Thompson 5%.

Going into Michigan Fred Thompson announces he is too tired to continue in such a crowded field and he drops out to endorse McCain. The McCain campaign receives new life from this endorsement and many former Thompson supporters split themselves between McCain and Huckabee. The Giuliani campaign is beginning to panic after placing an unexpectedly low 4th in NH. Huckabee supporters are highly energized. Romney appears confident. End result: McCain 25%, Romney 23%, Huckabee 22%, Giuliani 20%

Going into Nevada the Giuliani campaign is in full blown panic Knowing they will likely lose the battle for South Carolina they turn up the negative ads. John McCain continues to ride a wave of newfound support with Romney still leading and Huckabee close behind. Giuliani's negative ads backfire. End Result: Mitt Romney 27%, McCain 25%, Huckabee 24%, Giuliani 15%.

In South Carolina Huckabee is the dominant candidate. McCain is cautious given past experiences here. Romney works hard enough to stay ahead of Giuliani. End Result: Huckabee 29%, McCain 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%

Over the next few days Romney quietly wins in Wyoming while McCain uneventfully tops the field in Hawaii. Giuliani places 4th in both these contests, still hedging all his bets on Florida and Super Tuesday. Many campaigners have abandoned him and several superdelegates begin showing signs they are no longer supporting him. Florida is the final nail in his coffin. End Result: McCain 29%, Huckabee 25%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 10%.

Giuliani announces that he is out of the running the day after Florida and McCain goes on to win Maine with 35% of the vote. Going into Super Tuesday McCain is heavily favored with most of the Giuliani supporters moving towards him. Huckabee appears to be the only one capable of challenging McCain after most of Romney's strongest states beginning leaning towards the Senator from Arizona due to Giuliani's absence. End Result: McCain wins Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, and Oklahoma; Huckabee wins Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee; Romney wins Utah.

Romney drops out after placing third nearly everywhere and McCain goes on to win all remaining states. McCain is crowned King of the Republicans at the convention. He chooses a either Huckabee or a young southern Republican congressperson as his running mate.

First off let me start by saying I would still rate nearly all these states as tossups even if I wasn't making a long shot map. The Republican field is too larger and unpredictable right now to even consider calling anything safe and very few states even meet leans qualifications. Second please do not construe this as an endorsement or rejection of any of these candidates. I don't really care who the Republican is and I have no strong feelings towards any of them yet. Now on to the madness I like to call .....

Padfoot's McCain Miracle 2008!!!!!!

In Iowa Huckabee barely breaks 30% with Romney close on his heels in the high 20s as expected. Thompson comes in at a distant third in the mid teens and McCain ties Giuliani at around 10% each.

Going into New Hampshire Romney is the favorite. Huckabee's win in Iowa gives him a bit more attention but he is still not considered one of the front runners here. Giuliani and McCain kick it into overdrive. Giuliani wants to eliminate McCain and McCain knows he must beat Giuliani to stay in the race. End result: Romney 29%, McCain 20%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 18% Thompson 5%.

Going into Michigan Fred Thompson announces he is too tired to continue in such a crowded field and he drops out to endorse McCain. The McCain campaign receives new life from this endorsement and many former Thompson supporters split themselves between McCain and Huckabee. The Giuliani campaign is beginning to panic after tying for third in NH. Huckabee supporters are highly energized. Romney appears confident. End result: McCain 25%, Romney 23%, Huckabee 22%, Giuliani 20%

Going into Nevada the Giuliani campaign is in full blown panic Knowing they will likely lose the battle for South Carolina they turn up the negative ads. John McCain continues to ride a wave of newfound support with Romney still leading and Huckabee close behind. Giuliani's negative ads backfire. End Result: Mitt Romney 27%, Huckabee 25%, McCain 24%, Giuliani 15%.

In South Carolina Huckabee is the dominant candidate. McCain is cautious given past experiences here. Romney works hard enough to stay ahead of Giuliani. End Result: Huckabee 29%, McCain 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%

Over the next few days Romney quietly wins in Wyoming while McCain uneventfully tops the field in Hawaii. Giuliani places 4th in both these contests and hedges all his bets on Florida. Many campaigners have abandoned him and several superdelegates begin showing signs they are no longer supporting him. Florida is the final nail in his coffin. End Result: McCain 29%, Huckabee 25%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 10%.

Giuliani announces that he is out of the running the day after Florida and McCain goes on to win Maine with 35% of the vote. Going into Super Tuesday McCain is heavily favored with most of the Giuliani supporters moving towards him. Huckabee appears to be the only one capable of challenging McCain after most of Romney's strongest states beginning leaning towards the Senator from Arizona due to Giuliani's absence. End Result: McCain wins Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, and Oklahoma; Huckabee wins Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee; Romney wins Utah.

Romney drops out after placing third nearly everywhere and McCain goes on to win all remaining states. McCain is crowned King of the Republicans at the convention. He chooses a either Huckabee or a young southern Republican congressperson as his running mate.

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Rep Presidential Primary Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Prediction Map