Super Tuesday II Predictions (GOP):

OHIO: McCain will win a very comfortable victory against Huckabee. Around 58-33.

TEXAS: Another good McCain win, 55-34.

RHODE ISLAND: Very safe McCain. He will likely break 60% here. The final result will be around 65-23.

VERMONT: Even safer McCain. He could potentially break 70%, although I doubt it. The final margin will be around 68-22.

Hopefully Huckabee drops out after these poor results.

McCain will easily win the upcoming Chesapeake Primary. huckabee will probably drop out soon after.

McCain has won the GOP race!

On Saturday, Huckabee will likely pick up Louisiana and Kansas and McCain will win Washington. Huckabee will tout his victories that day but will soon drop out, given that it is mathematically impossible now for him to get the nomination. McCain goes on to win the rest of the primaries and caucuses.

I'm happy to have been one of the first here to predict a McCain victory.

McCain has the clear advantage in the Super Duper Tuesday states. Going state-by-state:

ALABAMA: All the recent polls give McCain a clear lead, followed by Huckabee and then Romney.

ALASKA: No polls for this state. However, Republican caucus voters appear to be very conservative (Forbes basically tied Bush in 2000), which gives Romney a lead. Additionally, it's a caucus, and Romney does very well in caucuses.

ARIZONA: Safe McCain.

ARKANSAS: Safe Huckabee.

CALIFORNIA: The race has heated up as of late, but the most reputable polls still give McCain a lead. Will be a very close race, however, but since delegates are awarded by congressional district, I still think McCain has an advantage.

COLORADO: Considering it's a caucus, Romney has an advantage. The only poll has Romney as a winner, but this should be taken with a grain of salt. The state is only 2% Mormon, by the way.

CONNECTICUT: McCain has a large lead in all polls and this looks like a safe McCain state. The Lieberman endorsement can do nothing but help him.

DELAWARE: Likely leans McCain, but no good polling.

GEORGIA: Polls give McCain an edge, although he is followed closely by Romney. The support of both of Georgia's senators will help him win.

ILLINOIS: Leans McCain based on polling and demographics.

MINNESOTA: It's a caucus, which should help Romney, but otherwise this state should favor McCain.

MASSACHUSETTS: Safe Romney, although McCain will probably fare better than polls show.

MISSOURI: A very close race. All good polls say McCain leads, however, with Huckabee and Romney tied for second.

MONTANA: Impossible to poll, but the fact that it's a caucus helps Romney.

NEW JERSEY: Clear McCain lead.

NEW YORK: Safe McCain.

NORTH DAKOTA: Complete tossup, but it's a caucus so Romney enjoys a slight advantage.

OKLAHOMA: McCain has a good lead.

TENNESSEE: Polls show a three-way tie, but McCain has a small lead. Will probably be Huckabee's best state after Arkansas.

UTAH: Mormon block-voting will give Romney a landslide victory.

WEST VIRGINIA: In the later primary, McCain will probably win thanks to the military vote. In this convention, however, Romney's superior organizing skills will probably give him a triumph.

I'm happy to have been one of the first here to predict a McCain victory.

In Super Duper Tuesday, McCain is able to score large victories several key states, including California, New Jersey, and New York. In most states, Romney will pose the biggest threat to McCain, but in the end I predict he will only triumph in UT, MA, and CO. In the Deep South states, Tennessee, and Arkansas, Huckabee will still be competitive and will probably manage some rather meaningless victories against McCain.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Huckabee and Giuliani will drop out immediately after, and Romney will probably try to linger until late March.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Clinton or Obama in the general election.

I'm happy to have been one of the first here to predict a McCain victory.

McCain's third-place performance in Nevada with a >50% victory by Mitt Romney was certainly dissappointing, but Romney failed to gain any momentum thanks to McCain's big triumph in South Carolina. It is worth remembering that ever since 1980 whoever wins South Carolina goes on to win the Republican nomination. This may change in 2008, of course, but it's nice to keep it in mind.

Florida is shaping up to be an extremely close race. Thanks to his varied endorsements by members of the military and Florida Republican politicians, I think McCain will win with 33%, followed closely by Romney at 30%, Giuliani at 16%, Huckabee at 13%, and 7% for Paul. McCain will also win Maine, where Romney will probably go second. Faced with a disastrous loss in Florida, Giuliani drops out and probably endorses McCain. His supporters will go to McCain anyway.

In Super Duper Tuesday, McCain is able to score large victories several key states, including California, New Jersey, and New York. In most states, Romney will pose the biggest threat to McCain, but in the end I predict he will only triumph in UT, MA, and CO. In the Deep South states, Tennessee, and Arkansas, Huckabee will still be competitive and will probably manage some rather meaningless victories against McCain.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Huckabee and Giuliani will drop out immediately after, and Romney will probably try to linger until late March.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Clinton or Obama in the general election.

Updated McCain victory scenario.

McCain's third-place performance in Nevada with a >50% victory by Mitt Romney was certainly dissappointing, but Romney failed to gain any momentum thanks to McCain's big triumph in South Carolina. It is worth remembering that ever since 1980 whoever wins South Carolina goes on to win the Republican nomination. This may change in 2008, of course, but it's nice to keep it in mind.

Fred Thompson seems ready to drop out of the race, and he will likely endorse McCain. Fueled by his SC momentum and Thompson's support, McCain is able to triumph in Florida with 28%, against 25% for Giuliani, 23% for Romney, and 15% for Huckabee. McCain will also win Maine, where Romney will probably go second.

McCain enters the National Primary or "Super Duper Tuesday" with strong momentum from his previous victories. McCain is therefore able to score victories in the majority of the primaries and caucuses. If Giuliani hasn't dropped out after loosing Florida, he will definitely drop out after Tuesday. Current polls show his leads collapsing even in the Northeastern states around New York. He will likely only his NY that day. Huckabee will win his native AK and a few Deep South states, while Romney triumphs in UT and MA.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Huckabee and Giuliani will drop out immediately after, and Romney will probably try to linger until late March.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Clinton or Obama in the general election.

Updated McCain victory scenario.

Romney appears to be concentrating on the Nevada caucus, and what little polling there has been points to a Romney victory. McCain will likely gain second place. However, the more important race that day will be in South Carolina. Huckabee and Thompson are splitting the more conservative vote and McCain will probably win a victory with 32%, with 30% for Huckabee, 12% Romney, 12% Thompson, 9% Giuliani, and 5% Paul.

Crushed by a series of losses, Fred Thompson drops out of the race and endorses McCain. Fueled by his victories in MI, NH, SC, a strong second place in NV, and the Thompson endorsement, mcCain is able to triumph in Florida with 28%, against 25% for Giuliani, 20% for Romney, and 18% for Huckabee.

McCain enters the National Primary or "Super Duper Tuesday" with strong momentum from his previous victories. McCain is therefore able to score victories in the majority of the primaries and caucuses. Giuliani is only able to win a few northeastern states, Huckabee AK and a few Deep South States, and Romney only UT and perhaps MA.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Romney will probably drop out after these disappointing showing and Huckabee will likely follow him soon. Giuliani could linger just a little longer, but he will have probably left by late March, endorsing McCain.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Clinton or Obama in the general election.

Updated McCain victory scenario.

As it stands now, Romney has suffered pretty debilitating defeats by Huckabee in IA and McCain in NH. In his spin, he touts his "gold medal" in WY, but frankly few cared about this caucus.

Michigan is Romney's last chance. If he looses here, he's basically done. His ego and wealth will probably prevent him from dropping off until after Super Duper Tuesday, but if he is defeated in MI his only victory that day will be in Utah.

Michigan is therefore a key state to Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. Considering the fact that the Democratic race in competitive and that Michigan's is an open primary, McCain will certainly be helped by the votes of independents and even Democrats who vote in the Republican primary. Huckabee and Romney will probably split the more conservative vote, making the results 28% McCain, 25% Romney, 23% Huckabee, 10% Giuliani, 8% Paul, and 6% Thompson.

With his Michigan defeats, Romney is basically out. He dedicated no time to South Carolina after his NH defeat and the race here is between Huckabee, McCain, and Fred Thompson, who has dedicated all his hopes to this state. The evangelical vote will probably make the results go Huckabee's way, for a total of 31% Huckabee, 28% McCain, 17% Thompson, 10% Romney and 8% Giuliani. In the Nevada caucuses that afternoon, I predict McCain will win because of the momentum he gained from MI and NH. Unfortunately, the fact that it's a caucus has made polling difficult.

Crushed by a series of losses, Fred Thompson drops out of the race and endorses McCain. Fueled by his victories in MI, NH, NV, a strong second place in SC, and the Thompson endorsement, mcCain is able to triumph in Florida with 28%, against 25% for Giuliani, 24% for Huckabee, and 13% for Romney.

McCain enters the National Primary or "Super Duper Tuesday" with strong momentum from his previous victories. McCain is therefore able to score victories in the majority of the primaries and caucuses. Giuliani is only able to win a few northeastern states, Huckabee AK and a few Deep South States, and Romney only UT and perhaps MA.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Romney will probably drop out after these disappointing showing and Huckabee will likely follow him soon. Giuliani could linger just a little longer, but he will have probably left by late March, endorsing McCain.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Clinton or Obama in the general election.

Updated McCain victory scenario.

Romney has suffered a big defeat in Iowa against Huckabee, with McCain basically tied for third. In the Wyoming caucuses, Romney will probably win with Thompson in second, considering that McCain and Huckabee have not campaigned there. Hunter, who did campaign here, will probably drop out after a disappointing result. In any case, the WY results will be pretty much ignored by the media and will not seriously affect New Hampshire.

Debilitated by his Iowa defeat, Romney comes in second in New Hampshire with 30%, beaten by McCain who comes in at 32%, with Huckabee at 15%, Paul at 10%, Giuliani at 8% and Thompson at 3%.

With Romney's early-state strategy failing, Michigan becomes extremely competitive. Fueled by his New Hampshire victory and helped by the votes of independents and Democrats in the Republican primary, McCain triumphs with 27%, followed by Huckabee with 26%, Romney with 24%, Giuliani with 12%, and Thompson with 5%.

In the South Carolina primary, helped by a severely weakened Romney and a Huckabee that hasn't won any state since Iowa, McCain manages to score a razor-thin victory. The results are 23% McCain, 20% Huckabee, 18% Romney, 16% Thompson, and 15% Giuliani. That day in the Nevada caucuses, Romney finally gets a break and is able to win a small victory.

Crushed by a series of losses, Fred Thompson drops out of the race and endorses McCain. Fueled by his wins in NH, SC, MI, and the Thompson endorsement, McCain is able to win the next few caucuses and triumphs in Florida with 25%, against 20% for both Huckabee and Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 10% for Thompson. Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee try to hang on to the race despite falling numbers.

McCain enters the National Primary or "Super Duper Tuesday" with strong momentum from his previous victories, while Huckabee, Giuliani, and Romney have not been able more than one state each. McCain is therefore able to score victories in the majority of the primaries and caucuses. Giuliani is only able to win a few northeastern states, and Huckabee and Romney win predictable victories in AK and UT respectively.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Romney will probably drop out after these disappointing showing and Huckabee will likely follow him soon. Giuliani could linger just a little longer, but he will have probably left by late March, endorsing McCain.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

Updated McCain victory scenario.

As I predicted in the previous version, Huckabee's momentum has started to dissipate. It has not been a dramatic "Huckabust" but a slow decline in support. McCain's surge in NH, thanks to Giuliani abandoning that state, has been faster than I imagined. According to the RCP average, he is in third place in Iowa, something quite surprising.

The fight in Iowa gets increasingly close between Huckabee and Romney, with McCain running a close third. In the end, Huckabee manages a slim victory over Romney, somewhere along the lines of 29% Huckabee, 28% Romney, 12% McCain, 10% Thompson, 10% Giuliani, 5% Paul. Debilitated by his Iowa defeat, Romney Romney comes in second in New Hampshire with 28%, beaten by McCain who comes in at 29%, with Huckabee at 14%, Giuliani at 11%, Paul at 6%, and Thompson at 3%.

With Romney's early-state strategy failing and Huckabee in fourth place in NH, Michigan becomes extremely competitive. Fueled by his New Hampshire victory and helped by the votes of independents and Democrats in the Republican primary, McCain triumphs with 27%, followed by Romney with 26%, Huckabee with 24%, Giuliani with 12%, and Thompson with 5%.

In the South Carolina primary, helped by a severely weakened Romney and a Huckabee that hasn't won any state since Iowa, McCain manages to score a razor-thin victory. The results are 23% McCain, 20% Huckabee, 18% Romney, 16% Thompson, and 15% Giuliani. That day in the Nevada caucuses, Romney finally gets a break and is able to win a small victory.

Crushed by a series of losses, Fred Thompson drops out of the race and endorses McCain. Fueled by his wins in NH, SC, MI, and the Thompson endorsement, McCain is able to win the next few caucuses and triumphs in Florida with 25%, against 20% for both Huckabee and Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 10% for Thompson. Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee try to hang on to the race despite falling numbers.

McCain enters the National Primary or "Super Duper Tuesday" with strong momentum from his previous victories, while Huckabee, Giuliani, and Romney have not been able more than one state each. McCain is therefore able to score victories in the majority of the primaries and caucuses. Giuliani is only able to win a few northeastern states, and Huckabee and Romney win predictable victories in AK and UT respectively.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Romney will probably drop out after these disappointing showing and Huckabee will likely follow him soon. Giuliani could linger just a little longer, but he will have probably left by late March, endorsing McCain.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

A possible McCain victory scenario.

The Huckabee momentum begins to dissipate in late December, while McCain's begins to surge in NH. In Iowa, Huckabee manages a slim victory over Romney, somewhere along the lines of 30% Huckabee, 28% Romney, 15% Thompson, 10% Giuliani, 8% McCain, 5% Paul. Debilitated by his Iowa defeat, Romney comes in second in New Hampshire with 25%, beaten by McCain who comes in at 28%, with Giuliani at 17%, Huckabee at 14%, Paul at 6%, and Thompson at 3%.

With Romney's early-state strategy failing and Huckabee in fourth place in NH, Michigan becomes extremely competitive, but in the end Giuliani manages to scrape a close victory, winning 23% against McCain with 19%, Romney at 17%, Thompson with 13%, and Huckabee with 10%.

In the South Carolina primary, helped by a severely weakened Romney and a Huckabee that hasn't won any state since Iowa, McCain manages to score a razor-thin victory. The results are 23% McCain, 20% Huckabee, 18% Romney, 16% Thompson, and 15% Giuliani. That day in the Nevada caucuses, Romney finally gets a break and is able to win a small victory.

Fueled by his wins in NH and SC, and considering that Giuliani has only won MI, McCain is able to win the next few caucuses and triumphs in Florida with 25%, against 20% for both Huckabee and Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 10% for Thompson. Crushed by a series of losses, Fred Thompson drops out of the race and endorses McCain. Hopefully, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Ron Paul have left as well, but I have a feeling that the last two will stay as long as they can. In any case, their impact is very minimal. Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee try to hang on to the race despite falling numbers.

McCain enters the National Primary or "Super Duper Tuesday" with strong momentum from his previous victories, while Huckabee, Giuliani, and Romney have not been able more than one state each. McCain is therefore able to score victories in the majority of the primaries and caucuses. Giuliani is only able to win a few northeastern states, and Huckabee and Romney win predictable victories in AK and UT respectively.

McCain is by now firmly on the road to the nomination. Romney will probably drop out after these disappointing showing and Huckabee will likely follow him soon. Giuliani could linger just a little longer, but he will have probably left by late March, endorsing McCain.

His nomination ensured, McCain wins the Republican nomination and goes on to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

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