Given the Iowa result, Romney is dead. He and Guliani are gonna drag on, but I now expect it to be between McCain and Huckabee. The question is whether McCain can build enough momentum out of New Hampshire and also get Guliani out of the race fast enough to win it. In the end I think he will win California and a couple of other states on Super Tuesday, and then, after the couple of subsequent Southern primaries going Huckabee gain momentum in the states after that, especially Wisconsin and Virginia. Huckabee bounces back by winning Texas and the race is decided when McCain takes Pennsylvania...

Well...once again, I could't bear in my heart to predict a Romney or Huckabee win just yet. Instead, it seems McCain could take New Hampshire over Romney. If that happens I think he goes on to take Michigan and edges out Guliani as the main moderate contender. After Super Tuesday Guliani and Romney both drop out and it comes down to Huckabee v McCain. McCain emerges as the winner from that contest. I HOPE!

In a primary it's about dynamics which are very hard to predict. States put as safe for one candidate may go over-whelmingly to another. My idea is basically that Huckabee takes Iowa, Romney then wins New Hampshire but Guliani eeks out a win in Michigan. McCain drops out and Thompson does too. On Super Tuesday Romney takes only Utah and so drops out. Guliani and Huckabee battle it out till Pennsylvania which is the nail in teh coffin for Huckabee and Guliani sweeps the rest. Optimistic? Yes.

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