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Date of Prediction: 2012-02-27 Version:1

Prediction Map
JFK1960 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
JFK1960 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem352
 
Rep186
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem279
 
Rep172
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+10-20-17273342-7
Rep+20+17-10-10212169+7
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Prediction is based on the assumption that Obama will face Mitt "Android Man" Romney. If the Republican is Rick Santorum the race will be much closer. Also if Israel or the US attack Iran before the fall election and / or Gas prices are under $5 a gallon on labor day.

The Election will be called when the polls close in California at 8:00 PM Pacific.

Obama will lose Iowa and Indiana but pick up Missouri

States that Obama will win with less than 5% of the vote

Missouri
Ohio
North Carolina
New Hamphsire
Virginia

Surpise call of the Night Florida Obama will win it by about 7%.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: JFK1960 (D-CA) 2012-08-05 @ 22:33:25 prediction Map
Update: 8/5/2012

So it now appears that Pres. Obama will lose Missouri, Indiana, and possibly North Carolina according to the polls. I am going to leave my prediction map for now. However, I think Pres. Obama will still win Florida but it will be by 1- 2%; Ohio in the 3% - 4% range, and Pennslyvania in the 4 - 6% range.

One state that I still think Romney will win is Iowa, I expect the result to be in the 2% range for either candidate.

Last Edit: 2012-08-05 @ 22:35:35

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 23:11:17 prediction Map
What percent of the McCain voters(Voters that supported McCain in 2008 based on his experience and they respected McCain's service but dislike or distrust Romney) will Obama-D receive?

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-07 @ 08:33:14 prediction Map
I respect a man who sticks with his predictions.

Btw, this map by my name isn't my "real" prediction. That is the 11/03/2011 prediction that you can find on my prediction page. IIRC, that shows that, even before I knew who the GOP nominee would be, I predicted Obama would get under 200 EVs.

I agree with JFK-Democrat that Romney was the weakest candidate the GOP could run against Obama. That's why the MSM made him the nominee.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-09 @ 06:22:35 prediction Map
I tend to agree with your Iowa map in that the state is a noted contrary voter.

 By: JFK1960 (D-CA) 2012-10-01 @ 00:23:13 prediction Map
Updated:9/30/2012

With just 36 days until the final day to vote (The first day of voting started on 9/6/2012). President Obama is still in the lead. The interesting thing about this race is that the fundamentals have NOT SHIFTED. Mitt Romney as never held a lead in the aggregate of national polls or in any of the swing states besides North Carolina and Missouri if you count it as a swing state.

I am still very confident in my prediction. I now feel President Obama has a very good shot a retaining North Carolina and his Margins in Ohio and Florida should be in the 4/5% range for either state when all the votes are counted.

I am now predicting that Arizona may be the suprise state for the President with over 150K newly registered hispanic voters, it should make for a close race.

Next up are the debates, Mitt Romney needs to score a knockout blow on October 3rd. If he does not then I predict that the race will be officially over.

I am still expecting the election will be officially over once the polls close in California at 8PM PST.

However, we will already know the results since I fully expect Ohio and Florida and Virginia to be called before the polls close in California.

 By: James4286 (D-CA) 2012-10-04 @ 04:27:04 prediction Map
I know it's a grammatical nitpick, but the race will 'officially' be over when congress tallies and certifies the results from the electoral college.

I would think that the race would effectively be over as soon as Obama wins at least 2 of the big swing states (FL, OH,NC,VA),or one big swing and two small ones (NH,IA,CO,NV).

I agree that it may be 'called' around the time the polls close in CA (and probably hinted at before that, as the west coast isn't really in play).

 By: dgentile (G-NY) 2012-10-06 @ 03:41:39 prediction Map
@James4286 - Nate Silver has a tipping point analysis (right side, halfway down page) that shows what you have intuited.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Obviously the east coast has the time advantage, and OH the greatest poll gap.




 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-06 @ 08:27:52 prediction Map
Sorry, I didn't see this question you asked me:

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 23:11:17

What percent of the McCain voters(Voters that supported McCain in 2008 based on his experience and they respected McCain's service but dislike or distrust Romney) will Obama-D receive?
-------------------------------------

Romney is probably the most distrusted nominee among Republicans since Nixon in '68. But as I just said on dnul's page, the alternative that the Democrats offer to Republicans and Independents seems to ONE-PARTY, uncompromising rule. So, all the Repubs that voted for McCain (and a lot who didn't) are going to show up to vote for Romney.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 4 22 466T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 10/33 40/66 60.6% pie 1 31 252T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 3/11 12/22 54.5% pie 1 31 196T
P 2008 President 49/56 25/56 74/112 66.1% pie 1 358 734T
Aggregate Predictions 140/156 77/156 217/312 69.6% pie



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