Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Advertisements

Advertise on the Atlas

Election Data

Become a Member

Political Posters!
History of the Parties

Election and History Posters from History Shots!
Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed

Date of Prediction: 2012-02-27 Version:1

Prediction Map
JFK1960 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
JFK1960 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	352
Rep	186
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	279
Rep	172
Ind	0
Tos	87

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+1	0	+10	-2	0	-17	27	3	342	-7
Rep	+2	0	+17	-1	0	-10	21	2	169	+7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Prediction is based on the assumption that Obama will face Mitt "Android Man" Romney. If the Republican is Rick Santorum the race will be much closer. Also if Israel or the US attack Iran before the fall election and / or Gas prices are under $5 a gallon on labor day.

The Election will be called when the polls close in California at 8:00 PM Pacific.

Obama will lose Iowa and Indiana but pick up Missouri

States that Obama will win with less than 5% of the vote

Missouri
Ohio
North Carolina
New Hamphsire
Virginia

Surpise call of the Night Florida Obama will win it by about 7%.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: JFK1960 (D-CA) 2012-08-05 @ 22:33:25
Update: 8/5/2012 So it now appears that Pres. Obama will lose Missouri, Indiana, and possibly North Carolina according to the polls. I am going to leave my prediction map for now. However, I think Pres. Obama will still win Florida but it will be by 1- 2%; Ohio in the 3% - 4% range, and Pennslyvania in the 4 - 6% range. One state that I still think Romney will win is Iowa, I expect the result to be in the 2% range for either candidate. Last Edit: 2012-08-05 @ 22:35:35

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 23:11:17
What percent of the McCain voters(Voters that supported McCain in 2008 based on his experience and they respected McCain's service but dislike or distrust Romney) will Obama-D receive?

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-07 @ 08:33:14
I respect a man who sticks with his predictions. Btw, this map by my name isn't my "real" prediction. That is the 11/03/2011 prediction that you can find on my prediction page. IIRC, that shows that, even before I knew who the GOP nominee would be, I predicted Obama would get under 200 EVs. I agree with JFK-Democrat that Romney was the weakest candidate the GOP could run against Obama. That's why the MSM made him the nominee.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-09 @ 06:22:35
I tend to agree with your Iowa map in that the state is a noted contrary voter.

By: JFK1960 (D-CA) 2012-10-01 @ 00:23:13
Updated:9/30/2012 With just 36 days until the final day to vote (The first day of voting started on 9/6/2012). President Obama is still in the lead. The interesting thing about this race is that the fundamentals have NOT SHIFTED. Mitt Romney as never held a lead in the aggregate of national polls or in any of the swing states besides North Carolina and Missouri if you count it as a swing state. I am still very confident in my prediction. I now feel President Obama has a very good shot a retaining North Carolina and his Margins in Ohio and Florida should be in the 4/5% range for either state when all the votes are counted. I am now predicting that Arizona may be the suprise state for the President with over 150K newly registered hispanic voters, it should make for a close race. Next up are the debates, Mitt Romney needs to score a knockout blow on October 3rd. If he does not then I predict that the race will be officially over. I am still expecting the election will be officially over once the polls close in California at 8PM PST. However, we will already know the results since I fully expect Ohio and Florida and Virginia to be called before the polls close in California.

By: James4286 (D-CA) 2012-10-04 @ 04:27:04
I know it's a grammatical nitpick, but the race will 'officially' be over when congress tallies and certifies the results from the electoral college. I would think that the race would effectively be over as soon as Obama wins at least 2 of the big swing states (FL, OH,NC,VA),or one big swing and two small ones (NH,IA,CO,NV). I agree that it may be 'called' around the time the polls close in CA (and probably hinted at before that, as the west coast isn't really in play).

By: dgentile (G-NY) 2012-10-06 @ 03:41:39
@James4286 - Nate Silver has a tipping point analysis (right side, halfway down page) that shows what you have intuited. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Obviously the east coast has the time advantage, and OH the greatest poll gap.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-06 @ 08:27:52
Sorry, I didn't see this question you asked me: By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 23:11:17 What percent of the McCain voters(Voters that supported McCain in 2008 based on his experience and they respected McCain's service but dislike or distrust Romney) will Obama-D receive? ------------------------------------- Romney is probably the most distrusted nominee among Republicans since Nixon in '68. But as I just said on dnul's page, the alternative that the Democrats offer to Republicans and Independents seems to ONE-PARTY, uncompromising rule. So, all the Repubs that voted for McCain (and a lot who didn't) are going to show up to vote for Romney.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	4	22	466	T
2012 Senate	30/33	10/33	40/66	60.6%	1	31	252	T
2012 Governor	9/11	3/11	12/22	54.5%	1	31	196	T
2008 President	49/56	25/56	74/112	66.1%	1	358	734	T
Aggregate Predictions	140/156	77/156	217/312	69.6%