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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-09 Version:15

Prediction Map
slick67 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
slick67 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem135
 
Rep403
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem98
 
Rep345
 
Ind0
 
Tos95
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-19-2-224101135-224
Rep+19+2+224000222179+224
Ind0000000000


Analysis

First of all before we get all out of whack, I acknowledge this is a very long shot map. Representing the Republican party would be Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan (my best guess so far after Ryan's endorsement of Romney before Wisconsin primary). President Obama will keep Joe Biden on the ticket. Now at first glance this map looks a little skewed but lets remember its the economy stupid. If Social issues were the hot button this year Rick Santorum would be the GOP nominee, but he's not going to be because this is not like 2000 or 2004. People are out of luck and looking for solutions. The president came in on the youth, black, and yuppie vote. Romney will win the yuppie suburban vote (it's his strength at least in the primaries). Obama will still win the black vote, but less black people will come out to the polls than in 2008 because this is not a "historical" election. The youth turnout will be even lower than the black turnout and here Republicans and other 3rd parties will splinter the vote, making it much less of a prize than in '08. Obama's only real accomplishments are in foreign policy and they are valence issues not position issues. This year is about solutions, not abstract ideals. Its way to early to call the race but I just don't see the president pulling this one off with unemployment almost as high as the gas prices. Am I 100% sure this will be the map in november? No. Is Mitt Romney going to beat Barrack Obama? Yes.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: HagridOfTheDeep (R-ON) 2012-04-10 @ 12:36:30 prediction Map
Well... I'm way less optimistic. But I sincerely hope you're right.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-10 @ 18:12:04 prediction Map
Just what we need, another hack map. Face it: Romney is trailing. Obama has far more advantages than Romney and is a clear favorite in November.

 By: Americanadian (D-ON) 2012-04-10 @ 18:48:28 prediction Map
This is not 1988

Please cut back on the marijuana!

States like WA, MD, CT going to Romney???

IL and MA are tossup's???

If you really beleive this map you may want to consider some therapy after nov 6!

 By: HagridOfTheDeep (R-ON) 2012-04-10 @ 20:49:04 prediction Map
I don't think it's anyone's business to call other people's maps "hack maps." And if we're calling maps hack maps for being far from the aggregate prediction... your maps come pretty close too.

Bottom line, these are predictions of what people think will happen in November. Not what would happen if the election was to be held TODAY. So what? You disagree. No one's a hack.

 By: dgentile (G-NY) 2012-04-10 @ 21:20:54 prediction Map
This outcome may be possible, but it will take a major game change event. $4 Gas? Been there under Bush, and it is a long trend. Unemployment is dropping even as people return to the workforce. The GOP has pissed off women, working class independents, immigrants, gays, and non-religious zealots. Barring some new unforeseen economic crisis, Iran testing a nuke, or something of that magnitude, I don't see the polling changing much. As for third parties, Rosanne Barr is running; nuff said.

 By: slick67 (R-SC) 2012-04-10 @ 22:25:29 prediction Map
I know this map is a little optimistic and represnts the maximum extent of GOP reach. But I don't see gas prices going down or the economy getting better before november. And now that Santorum has suspended his campaign the republican primary is over and the general election has effectively started. I see the race tilting towards Romney's favor now that the full GOP establishment is about to be behind him. States like MD, WA, & CT are long shots but I think they can be GOP pickups if the GOP asks voters "are you better off than you were for years ago?". MA is Romney's home state. It voted for him for governor and the polling there has been generic GOP vs the President, so its not an accurate description of november. I see Obama winning IL, but his popularity there has been falling, especially outside of greater Chicago. Its a long way until November so we will just have to wait and see how things turn out.

Last Edit: 2012-04-10 @ 22:45:44

 By: colin (R-ON) 2012-04-11 @ 00:09:36 prediction Map
While I appreciate your optimism, I don't think this map is even remotely possible. If Obama couldn't swing Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, etc. in 2008, Romney will most certainly not swing Connecticut, Maryland, Minnesota, etc. in 2012. Let's be realistic.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-14 @ 21:04:26 prediction Map
"But I don't see gas prices going down or the economy getting better before november."

Gas prices and the economy aren't everything, and they won't be all bad for Obama. The economy is improving, though slowly and painfully, and I doubt gas prices will reach a point that would render them as more than just a major nuisance for most people. Obama has a lot of advantages, ranging from money to demographics to organization to just being a better politician, and Romney has a ton of problems, as he's being successfully painted as a an out of touch rich guy who doesn't believe in anything except getting elected. Obama is clearly leading in the polls. Bottom line is, this map is ludicrous, I could see a bare Romney victory if the circumstances are right but that's about it.

Last Edit: 2012-04-15 @ 14:41:39


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 195 98T
P 2012 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 30 14 699T
P 2012 Senate 26/33 9/33 35/66 53.0% pie 8 1 307T
P 2012 Governor 8/11 5/11 13/22 59.1% pie 3 14 179T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 24/52 69/104 66.3% pie 41 - 8T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 13/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 206 306T
P 2010 Governor 23/37 10/37 33/74 44.6% pie 1 206 281T
Aggregate Predictions 183/228 91/228 274/456 60.1% pie


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