|
Advertisements
|
Date of Prediction: 2012-04-09 Version:15
Prediction Map ![]()
Confidence Map ![]()
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
First of all before we get all out of whack, I acknowledge this is a very long shot map. Representing the Republican party would be Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan (my best guess so far after Ryan's endorsement of Romney before Wisconsin primary). President Obama will keep Joe Biden on the ticket. Now at first glance this map looks a little skewed but lets remember its the economy stupid. If Social issues were the hot button this year Rick Santorum would be the GOP nominee, but he's not going to be because this is not like 2000 or 2004. People are out of luck and looking for solutions. The president came in on the youth, black, and yuppie vote. Romney will win the yuppie suburban vote (it's his strength at least in the primaries). Obama will still win the black vote, but less black people will come out to the polls than in 2008 because this is not a "historical" election. The youth turnout will be even lower than the black turnout and here Republicans and other 3rd parties will splinter the vote, making it much less of a prize than in '08. Obama's only real accomplishments are in foreign policy and they are valence issues not position issues. This year is about solutions, not abstract ideals. Its way to early to call the race but I just don't see the president pulling this one off with unemployment almost as high as the gas prices. Am I 100% sure this will be the map in november? No. Is Mitt Romney going to beat Barrack Obama? Yes.
Prediction History
![]()
Comments History
- show
Version History Member Comments
User's Predictions
Links
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home
Ad: History Posters! - History of the Political Parties II

Election and History Posters from History Shots!
Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed
© David Leip 2012 All Rights Reserved



















2012 President
2012 Senate
2012 Governor
2012 Rep Primary
2010 Senate
2010 Governor

