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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-14 Version:10

Prediction Map
vt500ascott Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
vt500ascott Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem262
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos70
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: DemfromCT (D-CT) 2012-04-14 @ 23:43:48 prediction Map
Any chance Texas becomes close this year?

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-15 @ 03:34:02 prediction Map
Texas will be close this year...but I think though under 10% difference Obama will still lose it...eight years from now it could be a tossup state... this year maybe as little as 5% but I tend to doubt it...

on the other side although the red states will be closer so will the blue states as NJ for example will be single digits...so buyers remorse on both sides of the spectrum...

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-15 @ 12:06:26 prediction Map
It's possible. We would have had a better chance for a strong showing there had Santorum won the nomination, but Texas is still clearly trending Dem as a result of demographic trends and thus I expect improvement from 2008. But we're still probably at least 10 years from the point where it will become a true swing state.

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-19 @ 01:00:56 prediction Map
If it weren't for those illegal aliens, Texas would remain Republican for a good 20 years I say.

 By: Nagas (D-CA) 2012-04-19 @ 03:07:09 prediction Map
Illegal aliens can't vote. Good try though. 1/10

 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2012-06-14 @ 18:23:40 prediction Map
Texas will be closer than most people think. Obama only lost by 11 points in 2008 and I expect he'll only lose by single digits this year. He probably has no real chance of winning. But yes, the state is changing demographically and could be a true toss-up in 2016, definitely by 2020.

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-06-14 @ 23:30:53 prediction Map
Found you from your 538.com blog post.
Well, seems we only disagree on NC, which is completely unpredictable at this point due to the Charlotte convention. It could have locally positive or negative effects. Who can say?

Let's examine some evidence. The Dem convention in Denver last time certainly helped. Obama won the state by about 9% when statistics say he should have done so by closer to 6-7%. So it was worth maybe a 2-3 pt added bump.
Next, there's the GOP convention in the Twin Cities. They wound up losing the state by a little over 10 pts, but the math now indicates they are going to lose MN by 14 or so this time. But part of that is due to current events such as the complete disintegration of the state GOP there. But, to put it in a Boolean operator, the fact is that Dayton and the DFL won there in 2010 not the GOP. What that means is that the Dems should probably have cleaned up in MN in 2008 by about 12+ pts and only squeaked out a ten-pointer. So the convention bounce looks like it was again a 2-3 pt bump.

Also, CO and MN are roughly the same size. Population matters for home state advantage as well as these other local effects like conventions. Luckily, few local effects matter this year - Mitt has no home state advantage (maybe a mild one in MI and NH, but not anywhere near enough to swing these states) and Obama's home field gives him states he already was gonna have anyway just with the D after his name. So the conventions are the only things to worry about.

FL is a big state, so the convention bump's effects will be diluted over a population of 8 million votes. NC is still bigger than MN and CO by a good bit. So probably smaller bumps coming from these things locally. Nationally the same, because it all looks the same on tv. The activists who come ut of these places to turn out the vote are the issue.

Anyway, sorry to be long-winded, but that's what we're both having trouble forecasting is the 2 states which will have the most unpredictable local effects between now and Nov 6.
-Jeff

 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2012-06-16 @ 10:09:27 prediction Map
I also think that Florida is a genuine toss-up. I have it for Obama right now but that could easily change with the polling.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-06-16 @ 10:14:53 prediction Map
I think you meant a population of over 18 million and I would tend to agree with Florida. I spend a lot of time there as my family is in the Sarasota area. Mixed feeling for both candidates and people are genuinely concerned about their and the nation's future but have nowhere to turn for strong solutions. So it will be a tossup and within 2-3 points either way like in 2000. I feel that the debates will move people this time.


 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-06-16 @ 11:41:20 prediction Map
Yes, 18mil people but I was talking about 8mil _votes_. Of course lots of those are children and FL is a non-voting state for ex-cons like several others. Still, a lot more Floridians could be voting that aren't already. It's the only way they'd elect a Gov like Scott. My suspicion is that the 10 states that elected those far right GOP Govs in 2010 are slowly backing away from that decision. I'd say PA, OH, FL, NJ, VA, MI, WI, ME, NV and IA will vote slightly more towards Obama than they would have without having gone so far to the GOP in the mid-terms. Even despite WI not recalling Walker, I'm still seeing him as rather unpopular in the middle. So it's a series of wave elections that take the country back and forth yo-yoing from one side to the other - a political see-saw. I'd rather just stay in the middle, but there's enough interested money on both sides to keep this back-and-forth going for the foreseeable future.
-Jeff


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 13 14 146T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 16/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 44 164T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 17 10 63T
P 2008 President 52/56 34/56 86/112 76.8% pie 17 7 324T
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 2 102 257T
Aggregate Predictions 203/215 133/215 336/430 78.1% pie


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