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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-19 Version:1

Prediction Map
Jakareh Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Jakareh Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem446
 
Rep92
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem344
 
Rep67
 
Ind0
 
Tos127
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+60+87000293359+87
Rep000-60-8716292-87
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Mitt Romney is the Republican Michael Dukakis: an elitist technocrat from Massachusetts, politically tin-eared and unlikable. Flawed though Barack Obama may be as a president, he does have more of a natural constituency than Romney.

My prediction is that Romney's inherent lack of an appeal, combined with massive negative advertising coming from the Democrats, will depress the conservative vote. This will be especially true in the South, where Romney's Mormon religion and his flip-flops on social issues will be additional factors in his inability to generate support. By contrast, the region's large African-American population will enthusiastically support the reelection of the first black president. As a result, Romney is likely to suffer a surprising number of losses there, including in states previously considered "safe" for the GOP.

The final outcome—and it is an unfortunate one for the nation—will be Barack Obama claiming as much of a mandate as is possible amid the Washington gridlock.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-20 @ 19:37:00 prediction Map
This is doubtful. It sounds like you'll be voting for Obama. If the Republican party wishes to survive, it needs to unite. I would vote for Newt Gingrich if he was nominated, even if he planned on wasting our money and colonizing the moon!

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-23 @ 09:23:20 prediction Map
Mitt Romney has flip-flopped so much on moral issues—abortion and homosexual perversion of marriage, to name two—that I have no idea what his actual position on those issues is, and I’m not sure if he does. That makes him unacceptable both as president and as leader of the Republican Party.

So, no, I'm not voting for Obama, but I will be staying home barring the emergence of a realistic third-party candidacy. I have a feeling I’m not the only one who feels this way.

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-23 @ 11:04:58 prediction Map
So, this means your map is based upon the perception of widespread distaste for both major candidates and thus the emergence of a 3rd viable alternative? Just asking. I would consider it a possibly realistic map if those assumptions turn out to be the case.

Virgil Goode is the Constitution Party nominee at this point which means MT will have at least one viable alternative to Romney and probably more. It remains to be seen if the Cons can gain ballot access in other states where there are barriers. Assume a Gary Johnson nomination by the Libertarians and/or Ron Paul's 3rd party intervention and you do have some GOP states in play that normally wouldn't be with someone other than Romney on the ballot. In fact, given viable alternatives to Romney gaining ballot access, I think your map has much greater probability than anyone else's, even my own.

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-23 @ 15:43:54 prediction Map
I agree that he has been quite the Liberal in the past, but he was running for governor of Massachusetts, and I say forgive and forget. He probably won't be going Liberal on us in the White house if it comes to that, because I believe that the deep Romney is a strong conservative, but he has been forced into some tough spots in the highly liberal state of Massachusetts. People shouldn't be against Romney because he's a Mormon. In some dictionary I just checked(the cover was off) the definition of Christian is "One who believes in Jesus Christ and his teachings" meaning Mormons are Christians. Its even in the name, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. I would vote for a Muslim if he was the more conservative candidate.

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-24 @ 10:06:57 prediction Map
That makes you a rare American voter indeed, BYUM. But did you also look up the definition of the word "coreligious" or "creed"?

I am sure the vast majority of conservatives can "forgive and forget" Mitt's past liberalism and choose him as the lesser of two evils. However, in a scenario like MT (where Ron Paul's name can be added to the ballot by others without his permission or even him running for anything) you'd see events play out like so - Mitt and Obama would both get around 42% and the other 16 votes would go to 3rd party entities. This is how Clinton won MT in '92 in fact. The same would happen in TX, given Paul's popularity there (and Mitt's lack of same). AZ, MO, IN, GA, SC and Omaha are all in the same boat. Since that's the map we're looking at here, this is why I ask the author this question. It is a bit confusing to cross-thread a conversation from a different map, however. With respect, please try not to do this.
-Jeff

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-24 @ 11:08:50 prediction Map
Actually I was just looking at what he said on his prediction map, and commented. I think anyone who believes in the Old and New testament, and follows the commandments of Christ should be considered a Christian. Something that does bug me is those radical fundamentalist mormons who make us LDS people look horrible.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-25 @ 18:41:10 prediction Map
@BYUMormon

I carefully refrained from making any comment on the content of the Mormon religion since it is not germane to the topic. I only said that Romney's being a Mormon may cause some voters who would otherwise support him to abstain from voting. Though that is my sincere assessment of the situation, I respect and indeed look forward to well-reasoned opinions to the contrary. Since you chose to make the claim that Mormons are Christian, however, I feel entitled to rebut that point.

Mormons may believe in Jesus, but they do not believe in Him as the unique son of the One God, sole Creator of the universe. Rather, the Mormon conception of Jesus is that He is one of at least two sons (another being Lucifer) of a Celestial Father who is in turn one of a multitude of gods in existence. In other words, Mormons may believe in Jesus, but your Jesus is not the same being as our Jesus. Therefore, you are not Christian.

Please do not misunderstand: you have the right to believe as you wish, morally and legally. But once you make an untruthful statement about my own religion of Christianity (that Mormonism is part of it, or equivalent to it, or indeed its most perfect expression), I have an equal right to refute that statement.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-25 @ 19:48:44 prediction Map
@Ickey415

I would consider voting for a third-party candidate, but that doesn't mean I expect such a candidate to be a significant factor in the election.

My prediction is actually based on a few simple premises. The first is that support for Romney will be lukewarm at best among Christians and social conservatives, leading to low voter turnout among Republicans. Support for Obama will be softer than in the last cycle among some groups, e.g. young voters, but will remain just as firm among others, leaving him in a relatively stronger position. When it comes to independents, who are often economically conservative and socially liberal, Romney's flip-flops will be as much of a turnoff as for conservatives, as will his political tin ear and habitual gaffes. Last but not least, Romney will be facing a treasure chest larger than his own. The prospect of not being able to crush opponents with a barrage of unanswered negative advertising does not bode well for him.

To put it in another way, Romney is a weak candidate and not just because he lacks any innate talent for politics. His many previous electoral defeats support that view, as does the fact that he stepped down as governor of Massachusetts after one term to avoid another.


Last Edit: 2012-04-25 @ 19:54:44

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 20:11:42 prediction Map
I see. All good points. I agree with all of them to some degree. However, I just do not see voter turnout simply remaining home and voting for no one in the significant numbers you suggest. If conservatives remain unimpressed by Mitt, they will still turn out to vote down ticket - I assume you concur with this premise, right? So, you think they'd simply leave the top line of the ballot blank, then? Or might they vote for a third option they detest less than either Obama or Romney - say Goode on the Constitutionalist ticket, or perhaps the Libertarian? I conclude those votes will have to go somewhere and that this will create a demand for a viable 3rd option which someone will feel obligated to fill. But I consider this discussion to be worthwhile. Thanks.
-Jeff

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-25 @ 20:39:53 prediction Map
Mormons are Christians. We believe in Christ, follow his teachings, believe he is a god(the other being heavenly Father) and also why would Jesus be praying to himself in the Garden of Gethsemane? You are a Christian too, just a different Christian Religion. I assure you that if you sincerely read the Book of Mormon then you will believe that we are Christians, and not find a problem with it. If you do tell me.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-25 @ 23:51:18 prediction Map
@BYUmormon

If you truly believe I am a Christian, then you are at odds with your church. As you know, the Mormon Church postulates something called the Great Apostasy. If the Catholic Church has committed apostasy and I follow her teachings, then logically I am not a Christian, for to apostatize is to cease to be a Christian. The concrete proof: if I were to convert to Mormonism tomorrow, I would have to be baptized again. Why? Because Catholic baptism is not valid according to Mormon belief. Why? Because the Catholic Church has committed apostasy. In other words, our beliefs are so off-base that we cannot be regarded as Christians. Now, what you (or at least your church) believes about me, I believe about you. It's not out of malice or a desire for revenge, though; it's a matter of truth and logic.

As to the Book of Mormon, many individuals whose knowledge and judgment I trust explicitly have already examined it in depth and found it to be objectively false. Whereas no one has ever been able to prove the Bible wrong on any given point, the Book of Mormon is brimming with demonstrable errors, from the presence of honeybees in pre-Columbian America, to the existence of cities for which there is not a trace of archaeological evidence, to the nonsensical Hebrew and Egyptian names. There is truly no need for me to replicate their worthy work of refutation; that would be like reinventing the wheel. In fact, I would urge you to look at their work and ask yourself: is what I believe really true?

No irony, no hostility, no b.s.: I said a prayer for you.




 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 00:01:26 prediction Map
Apostasy means that the true Christianity is not on the earth. Please respond to my saying "Why would Jesus be praying to himself in the Garden of Gethsemane?" I never said your opinions would change if you didn't read the book, I said if you read it with real intent which you did not. Read it, and if not then your opinion of it's validity will be no more meaningful to me than anyone elses.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 00:27:23 prediction Map
@Ickey415

You bring up a good point, one that applies to me personally. The congressional races may or may not be enough to motivate me to go the polls, but even if they do, I still won't vote for Romney. Am I unique in this regard? Surely not, but I am probably rare. I agree that the vast majority of conservatives who do go to the polls will vote for him, but I believe a non-trivial number will not bother to cast ballots at all precisely because he is at the top of ticket. That's why I have the Dems winning some unlikely Southern states. And the GOP will not have much in the way of presidential coattails to ride on, which obviously dooms their chances of capturing the Senate and even imperils their control of the House.

Maybe I will be humbled come November 6, but to me Mitt Romney has "loser" written all over his admittedly handsome face.

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 11:31:48

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 00:52:28 prediction Map
@BYUMormon

I have already read some of it, years ago, as I have read the Koran; I was not impressed by either one. I certainly didn't feel the presence of the angel Moroni, if that's what you're getting at. I could hardly conceive of anything more pointless than repeating the exercise, as I believe I already know everything I need to know about Mormonism, including the arcane stuff that's in the other texts. However, if you have a specific passage or other evidence that you believe might persuade a dyed-in-the-wool Papist like me to take another look, please let me know.

As to Jesus in Gethsemane, He was talking to His father. I know you'll try to use that to disprove the Christian conception of the Trinity and argue that Jesus and God the Father are totally separate beings, but in all honesty, that only shows a lack of theological sophistication. What applies to human beings does not necessarily apply to the Divine. An analogy to the Trinity I find useful is: water, ice, and steam; they're different yet the same.

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 01:09:06 prediction Map
What about forgive them lord they know not what they do? Also you say you read some. Not all. I have a feeling that you weren't sincerely reading it, but looking at it logically trying to find out how some facts might be wrong. You probably didn't pray about it either. I'm not trying to force my religion on you, but I am trying to force the facts on you. If you don't do the things I say then your opinion will not be important to me. Mormons are Christians and so are you. Have a little religious tolerance. Also you will be humbled come November 6th.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 09:40:45 prediction Map
Yep, BYUMormon is right. Mormons are Christians. They believe in Christ as the son of God, which ultimately is what defines Christians and often the one thing that unites all Christians, both left and right. I don't agree with much of what they believe and stand for, but they are Christians.

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 09:57:10

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 11:54:46 prediction Map
@BYUmormon

The correct quote is "Forgive them, FATHER, for they know not what they do." There is a subtle difference between "Father" and "Lord" in this context. For the larger significance, please refer to my previous post; I do not intend to repeat myself.

You say you are trying to force facts on me, not your religion. That is patently untrue. I have asked for facts--I have challenged you to provide me facts--but all you have given me are repeated requests to engage in a form of superstition. If I were to comply, you would of course say I didn't do with the proper attitude, or with an open heart, or some such silliness--just like with my previous perusal of your book--and that I should do it again. This would go on until I converted to Mormonism or acknowledged the Book of Mormon is legitimate, which is tantamount to it.

That is, quite frankly, a reprehensible technique of manipulation. It may work on ignorant rubes when the apparently knowledgeable 18-year-old "elders" are sitting around their dining room table, but believe me, I'm quite immune to that type of thing.

As to respecting my opinions, you should do so--or not to do so--based on how good a case I can make for them using facts and logic.

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 12:06:13

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:00:42 prediction Map
I'm a Christian. If you hate the truth you will never know it.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 12:11:39 prediction Map
@albaleman

Can you any refute any of the following? (And by refute, I don't mean repeat your mindless little mantras.)

Is Mormonism Christian?:
A Comparison of Mormonism and Historic Christianity
Copyright © 1999 Institute for Religious Research. All rights reserved.

Is Mormonism Christian? This may seem like a puzzling question to many Mormons as well as to some Christians. Mormons will note that they include the Bible among the four books which they recognize as Scripture, and that belief in Jesus Christ is central to their faith, as evidenced by their official name, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Furthermore, many Christians have heard the Mormon Tabernacle Choir sing Christian hymns and are favorably impressed with the Mormon commitment to high moral standards and strong families. Doesn’t it follow that Mormonism is Christian?

To fairly and accurately resolve this question we need to carefully compare the basic doctrines of the Mormon religion with the basic doctrines of historic, biblical Christianity. To represent the Mormon position we have relied on the following well-known Mormon doctrinal books, the first three of which are published by the Mormon Church: Gospel Principles (1997), Achieving a Celestial Marriage (1976), and A Study of the Articles of Faith (1979) by Mormon Apostle James E. Talmage, as well as Doctrines of Salvation (3 vols.) by the tenth Mormon President and prophet Joseph Fielding Smith, Mormon Doctrine (2nd ed., 1979) by Mormon apostle Bruce R. McConkie and Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith.

1. Is There More Than One True God?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that there is only one True and Living God and apart from Him there are no other Gods (Deuteronomy 6:4; Isaiah 43:10,11; 44:6,8; 45:21,22; 46:9; Mark 12:29-34).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that there are many Gods (Book of Abraham 4:3ff), and that we can become gods and goddesses in the celestial kingdom (Doctrine and Covenants 132:19-20; Gospel Principles, p. 245; Achieving a Celestial Marriage, p. 130). It also teaches that those who achieve godhood will have spirit children who will worship and pray to them, just as we worship and pray to God the Father (Gospel Principles, p. 302).

2. Was God Once a Man Like Us?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that God is Spirit (John 4:24; 1 Timothy 6:15,16), He is not a man (Numbers 23:19; Hosea 11:9; Romans 1:22, 23), and has always (eternally) existed as God — all powerful, all knowing, and everywhere present (Psalm 90:2; 139:7-10; Isaiah 40:28; Luke 1:37).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that God the Father was once a man like us who progressed to become a God and has a body of flesh and bone (Doctrine and Covenants 130:22; "God himself was once as we are now, and is an exalted man, and sits enthroned in yonder heavens!" from Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith, pp. 345-347; Gospel Principles, p. 9; Articles of Faith, p. 430; Mormon Doctrine, p. 321). Indeed, the Mormon Church teaches that God himself has a father, and a grandfather, ad infinitum (Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith, p. 373; Mormon Doctrine, p. 577).

3. Are Jesus and Satan Spirit Brothers?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that Jesus is the unique Son of God; he has always existed as God, and is co-eternal and co-equal with the Father (John 1:1, 14; 10:30; 14:9; Colossians 2:9). While never less than God, at the appointed time He laid aside the glory He shared with the Father (John 17:4, 5; Philippians 2:6-11) and was made flesh for our salvation; His incarnation was accomplished through being conceived supernaturally by the Holy Spirit and born of a virgin (Matthew 1:18-23; Luke 1:34-35).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that Jesus Christ is our elder brother who progressed to godhood, having first been procreated as a spirit child by Heavenly Father and a heavenly mother; He was later conceived physically through intercourse between Heavenly Father and the virgin Mary (D&C 93:21; Journal of Discourses, 1:50-51; Gospel Principles, p. 11-13; Achieving a Celestial Marriage, p. 129; Bruce R. McConkie, Mormon Doctrine, pp. 546-547; 742; Ezra Taft Benson, Come unto Christ, p. 4; Robert L. Millet, The Mormon Faith: Understanding Restored Christianity, p. 31). Mormon doctrine affirms that Jesus, all angels, Lucifer, all demons, and all human beings are originally spirit brothers and sisters (Abraham 3:22-27; Moses 4:1-2; Gospel Principles, pp. 17-18; Mormon Doctrine, p. 192).

4. Is God a Trinity?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that Father, Son, and Holy Spirit or Holy Ghost are not separate Gods or separate beings, but are distinct Persons within the one Triune Godhead. Throughout the New Testament the Son and the Holy Spirit, as well as the Father are separately identified as and act as God (Son: Mark 2:5-12; John 20:28; Philippians 2:10,11; Holy Spirit: Acts 5:3,4; 2 Corinthians 3:17,18; 13:14); yet at the same time the Bible teaches that these three are only one God (see point 1).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that Father, Son, and Holy Ghost are three separate Gods (Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith, p. 370; Mormon Doctrine, pp. 576-577), and that the Son and Holy Ghost are the literal offspring of Heavenly Father and a celestial wife (Joseph Fielding McConkie, Encyclopedia of Mormonism, vol. 2, p. 649).

5. Was The Sin Of Adam and Eve a Great Evil Or a Great Blessing?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that the disobedience of our first parents Adam and Eve was a great evil. Through their fall sin entered the world, bringing all human beings under condemnation and death. Thus we are born with a sinful nature, and will be judged for the sins we commit as individuals. (Ezekiel 18:1-20; Romans 5:12-21).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that Adam’s sin was "a necessary step in the plan of life and a great blessing to all of us" (Gospel Principles, p. 33; Book of Mormon — 2 Nephi 2:25; Doctrines of Salvation, vol. 1, pp. 114-115).

6. Can We Make Ourselves Worthy Before God?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that apart from the saving work of Jesus Christ on the cross we are spiritually "dead in trespasses and sins" (Ephesians 2:1,5) and are powerless to save ourselves. By grace alone, apart from self-righteous works, God forgives our sins and makes us worthy to live in His presence (Ephesians 2:8-9; Titus 3:5-6). Our part is only to cling to Christ in heartfelt faith. (However, it is certainly true that without the evidence of changed conduct, a person’s testimony of faith in Christ must be questioned; salvation by grace alone through faith, does not mean we can live as we please — Romans 6:1-4).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that eternal life in the presence of God (which it terms "exaltation in the celestial kingdom") must be earned through obedience to all the commands of the Mormon Church, including exclusive Mormon temple rituals. Works are a requirement for salvation (entrance into the "celestial kingdom") — Gospel Principles, p. 303-304; Pearl of Great Price — Third Article of Faith; Mormon Doctrine, pp. 339, 671; Book of Mormon — 2 Nephi 25:23).

7. Does Christ's Atoning Death Benefit Those Who Reject Him?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that the purpose of the atoning work of Christ on the cross was to provide the complete solution for humankind’s sin problem. However, those who reject God’s grace in this life will have no part in this salvation but are under the judgment of God for eternity (John 3:36; Hebrews 9:27; 1 John 5:11-12).

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that the purpose of the atonement was to bring resurrection and immortality to all people, regardless of whether they receive Christ by faith. Christ’s atonement is only a partial basis for worthiness and eternal life, which also requires obedience to all the commands of the Mormon church, including exclusive Mormon temple rituals (Gospel Principles, pp. 74-75; Mormon Doctrine, p. 669).

8. Is The Bible The Unique and Final Word of God?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that the Bible is the unique, final and infallible Word of God (2 Timothy 3:16; Hebrews 1:1,2; 2 Peter 1:21) and that it will stand forever (1 Peter 1:23-25). God’s providential preservation of the text of the Bible was marvelously illustrated in the discovery of the Dead Sea Scrolls.

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that the Bible has been corrupted, is missing many "plain and precious parts" and does not contain the fullness of the Gospel (Book of Mormon — 1 Nephi 13:26-29; Doctrines of Salvation, vol. 3, pp. 190-191).

9. Did The Early Church Fall Into Total Apostasy?

The Bible teaches and orthodox Christians through the ages have believed that the true Church was divinely established by Jesus and could never and will never disappear from the earth (Matthew 16:18; John 15:16; 17:11). Christians acknowledge that there have been times of corruption and apostasy within the Church, but believe there has always been a remnant that held fast to the biblical essentials.

By contrast, the Mormon Church teaches that there was a great and total apostasy of the Church as established by Jesus Christ; this state of apostasy "still prevails except among those who have come to a knowledge of the restored gospel" of the Mormon Church (Gospel Principles, pp. 105-106; Mormon Doctrine, p. 44).

Conclusion: The above points in italics constitute the common gospel believed by all orthodox Christians through the ages regardless of denominational labels. On the other hand, some new religions such as Mormonism claim to be Christian, but accept as Scripture writings outside of the Bible, teach doctrines that contradict the Bible, and hold to beliefs completely foreign to the teachings of Jesus and His apostles.

Mormons share with orthodox Christians some important moral precepts from the Bible. However, the above points are examples of the many fundamental and irreconcilable differences between historic, biblical Christianity and Mormonism. While these differences do not keep us from being friendly with Mormons, we cannot consider them brothers and sisters in Christ. The Bible specifically warns of false prophets who will teach "another gospel" centered around "another Jesus," and witnessed to by "another spirit" (2 Corinthians 11:4,13-15; Galatians 1:6-9). Based on the evidence presented above, we believe Mormonism represents just such a counterfeit gospel.

It has been pointed out that if one claimed to be a Mormon but denied all the basic tenets of Mormonism — that Joseph Smith was a prophet of God, that the Book of Mormon is true and divinely inspired, that god was once a man who progressed to godhood through keeping the laws and ordinances of the Mormon Church, and that the Mormon Church was divinely established — the Mormon Church would reject such a person’s claim to being a Latter-day Saint. One cannot fairly call oneself a Mormon if one does not believe the fundamental doctrines taught by the Mormon Church. By the same token, if the Mormon Church does not hold to even the basic biblical truths believed by the greater Christian community down through the ages, how can Christians reasonably be expected to accept Mormonism as authentic Christianity?

If the Mormon Church believes it is the only true Christian Church, it should not attempt to publicly present itself as a part of a broader Christian community. Instead it should tell the world openly that those who claim to be orthodox Christians are not really Christians at all, and that the Mormon Church is the only true Christian Church. This in fact is what it teaches privately, but not publicly.

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:16:34 prediction Map
I'm done arguing. I believe Mormons are Christians, you believe they are heathens.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 12:48:04 prediction Map
Ugh. Mormons are Christians. They do not worship Joseph Smith. That's a lie. They do not believe in or worship many gods. That's another lie. They worship God the Father and Christ the Son, and they make that very clear. They believe that the head of their church is Jesus Christ, and that Smith and other latter day prophets simply gave them a better understanding of Christ. They believe in the Bible, like all other Christians, they just believe they also have another revelation from Joseph Smith which DOES NOT CONFLICT with the Christian Bible. Find me a single Mormon who believes anything else. You can cherry pick and lie and distort all you want but the bottom line is that that is the foundation of Mormonisim, that's what they believe, and it is strongly Christian.

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 12:56:34

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-26 @ 12:53:25 prediction Map
Good, because we're here to argue over a map, not a religion.
It is fair to say that the belief - right or wrong - by some (perhaps many, about 20+%) American voters will have effects on what colours the map has. I'd love it if we could all try our hardest to stick to that basic topic of discussion, please.

What Jakareh's map shows is the belief that it will have major effects on the map. Some (like me) believe it will have moderate effects. Others maybe negligible effect. I don't see that topic being advanced in this discussion so far.
-Jeff

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 13:04:16 prediction Map
Here is what Mormons ACTUALLY believe:

1. We believe in God, the Eternal Father, and in His Son, Jesus Christ, and in the Holy Ghost.

2. We believe that men will be punished for their own sins, and not for Adam’s transgression.

3. We believe that through the Atonement of Christ, all mankind may be saved, by obedience to the laws and ordinances of the Gospel.

4. We believe that the first principles and ordinances of the Gospel are: first, Faith in the Lord Jesus Christ; second, Repentance; third, Baptism by immersion for the remission of sins; fourth, Laying on of hands for the gift of the Holy Ghost.

5. We believe that a man must be called of God, by prophecy, and by the laying on of hands by those who are in authority, to preach the Gospel and administer in the ordinances thereof.

6. We believe in the same organization that existed in the Primitive Church, namely, apostles, prophets, pastors, teachers, evangelists, and so forth.

7. We believe in the gift of tongues, prophecy, revelation, visions, healing, interpretation of tongues, and so forth.

8. We believe the Bible to be the word of God as far as it is translated correctly; we also believe the Book of Mormon to be the word of God.

9. We believe all that God has revealed, all that He does now reveal, and we believe that He will yet reveal many great and important things pertaining to the Kingdom of God.

10. We believe in the literal gathering of Israel and in the restoration of the Ten Tribes; that Zion (the New Jerusalem) will be built upon the American continent; that Christ will reign personally upon the earth; and, that the earth will be renewed and receive its paradisiacal glory.

11. We claim the privilege of worshiping Almighty God according to the dictates of our own conscience, and allow all men the same privilege, let them worship how, where, or what they may.

12. We believe in being subject to kings, presidents, rulers, and magistrates, in obeying, honoring, and sustaining the law.

13. We believe in being honest, true, chaste, benevolent, virtuous, and in doing good to all men; indeed, we may say that we follow the admonition of Paul-We believe all things, we hope all things, we have endured many things, and hope to be able to endure all things. If there is anything virtuous, lovely, or of good report or praiseworthy, we seek after these things.

Which of these beliefs conflict with Christianity again? Some of them are different from what mainstream Christians believe, but none of it is in conflict with Christianity, rather it is centered around the basic Christian belief in redemption through Christ. Mormons believe in the Christian Bible, they view it as sacred scripture just like any other Christian denomination - and as scripture every bit as sacred as the Book of Mormon. I'm sure there's the occasional conflict between the Bible and the Book of Mormon - but guess what, there are also sections in the Bible itself that conflict with one another. But on the big issue, whether Christ is the Son of God Almighty, they are every bit as Christian as the rest of us. Quite often, that's all that unites the most liberal and the most conservative Christians. And you know what? In my native country, we have a saying that goes like this: "Even the devil can quote scripture to his own advantage".

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 13:09:35

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 13:11:43 prediction Map
@albaleman

You know what, Ickey415 is right: this is not about Mormonism, it's about 2012 presidential election. Obviously, I did my part in getting the discussion to veer off-topic, but I wasn't the one who started it.

As to the official list of Mormon beliefs, I'll say only that there a lot of omissions there.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 13:39:28 prediction Map
"As to the official list of Mormon beliefs, I'll say only that there a lot of omissions there. "

Well, read what I wrote:

"Some of them are different from what mainstream Christians believe, but none of it is in conflict with Christianity, rather it is centered around the basic Christian belief in redemption through Christ. Mormons believe in the Christian Bible, they view it as sacred scripture just like any other Christian denomination - and as scripture every bit as sacred as the Book of Mormon. I'm sure there's the occasional conflict between the Bible and the Book of Mormon - but guess what, there are also sections in the Bible itself that conflict with one another. But on the big issue, whether Christ is the Son of God Almighty, they are every bit as Christian as the rest of us."

That's the truth. But apparently not in your ludicrous alternate-reality world.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 14:01:11 prediction Map
@Ickey415

I'd like to clarify one thing: my unenthusiastic opinion about Mormonism notwithstanding, I think Romney's religion will be only a secondary factor in the election. Some of the 20% who say they would not vote for a Mormon are leftists who would not do so because of the LDS Church's opposition to gay marriage and the like; they would not vote Republican regardless of who the nominee was. And some of the conservatives among them might have changed their mind when faced with the prospect of another four years of Barack.

The reason why I think many won't has more to do with with the kind of gut feeling Romney inspires. Remember back in 2000 when there was a poll question about who the voter would rather have a beer with, Bush or Gore? Bush won. When it comes to Romney, he doesn't even drink beer, of course, and that comes across in his whole demeanor. Neither did Bush, as a recovering quasi-alcoholic, but the impression people got from him was one of amiability, and that's pretty different from what Romney conveys. Mike Huckabee (that would have been a pretty good nominee) put it perfectly when he said of Romney, "Mitt doesn’t remind you of the guys you used to work with, he reminds you of the guy who laid you off."

There are also Romney's flip-flops on abortion. It's not just that he changed his mind on the issue, it's that he changed his mind multiple times and always according to what was politically expedient. As far as I'm concerned, that completely rules him out, and not just because of abortion itself (though that would be plenty), but because what it says about his personal integrity. Maybe relatively few voters are aware of the extent of Romney's inconstancy on the issue, but if the Dems wanted a win like the one in map, they could form a PAC to run ads depicting his various shifts. It would be a pretty cynical move given they are for abortion and gay marriage, but would you put past them?

Finally, in his attempts to project himself as "severely conservative", Romney has adopted a drastic anti-immigration position, namely that all illegal immigrants should be deported. Right or wrong, that sounds mighty unfriendly to Latinos, even ones who have been citizens for generations. Last I heard, Obama was leading by 40% among them. That's a big part of the reason why Romney is in danger of losing states like Texas and Arizona.



Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 17:39:01

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 14:03:55 prediction Map
@albaleman

These positions are not in obvious contrast with Christianity, and that is by design. The ones my post mentioned are. Obviously, "omissions" is another word you haven't learned yet.

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 14:05:52

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 14:15:42 prediction Map
Mormons memorize those thirteen articles of faith and they are what we believe and stand for. We don't do whatever weird things you must think we do. Give me one thing un- christian that non excommunicated LDS church members do, or is part of LDS church doctrine and I will tell you why you are wrong. I agree that we should stop arguing about my religion and instead peacefully debate the map(although I certainly had my part in the argument I couldn't help but stand up for my beliefs). I personally think that me and Mitt Romney's LDS faith will probably not hurt him nearly as significantly as some think, although it will probably negatively affect him to a degree. I actually think that he will do better in Utah because of it. In fact 9 out of ten Mormons support Mitt Romney. Mormons make up almost 70% of Utah's population.

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 14:20:45 prediction Map
@BYUmormon

"Give me one thing un- christian that non excommunicated LDS church members do, or is part of LDS church doctrine and I will tell you why you are wrong."

I already did, and I no longer wish to discuss the topic here. I would just like to say that I don't have any animosity toward Mormons as individuals and that I hope you receive God's mercy whether or not you adhere to your current beliefs.

Of course Romney will do even better in Utah than McCain, but that's hardly significant given that Utah is one of the reddest states in the country. The swing states where being a Mormon will actually help him are Nevada and Arizona, but because of his unpopularity among Hispanics, it's doubtful he would be able to carry them.

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 14:32:38

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 14:26:07 prediction Map
Give me something true. Either that or you can continue to believe that Mormons are not Christians and I will continue to believe that we are Christians. Preferably the Latter. Why waste so much time arguing when neither of our opinions will be altered the least bit?

 By: Jakareh (R-FL) 2012-04-26 @ 16:02:03 prediction Map
MASSACHUSETTS AS A BAROMETER FOR AMERICA

Polls have Romney losing Massachusetts by 20 percentage points. You might say, "Of course, that only shows Romney really was 'severely conservative'. It's impossible for a Republican to carry Massachusetts." Yet Reagan did twice--without actually being from there. Plus, the GOP won several gubernatorial elections in recent years, including one by Romney himself! The Bay State is hard for Republicans but not impossible, and as a "moderate" Romney should be competitive there. But it goes back to what I said: because of his flip-flops and his less than congenial demeanor, Romney has lost whatever appeal he held for moderates while not gaining the support of many conservatives.

The bottom line is that a good general election candidate should be able to carry his or her home state comfortably--just on likability, if nothing else. See if Bill Clinton lost Arkansas, and that's a heck of a conservative state.

Researching the issue, I found there was only one presidential winner who lost his home state, Woodrow Wilson in 1916 (but not in 1912). Gore came close to repeating this dubious feat, and it could be said he lost the election by losing Tennessee, as winning the Volunteer State would have given him the edge in the electoral college.



Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 17:30:51

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 16:13:00 prediction Map
Using Massachusetts as a barometer for America is not smart to say the least. It is an entirely different atmosphere there. I too believe Romney will do poorly, but I still think it is unreasonable to think that Massachusetts as an example of what America will vote like. I think Mitt Romney should stop trying to look so much like a radical conservative, many conservatives will still vote for him if he is the more conservative candidate, and he will pick up additional votes from moderates.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 47/56 36/56 83/112 74.1% pie 2 194 640T
Aggregate Predictions 47/56 36/56 83/112 74.1% pie


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