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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-20 Version:14

Prediction Map
BYUmormon MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
BYUmormon MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem294
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos9
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

I hate to give Colorado to the Democrats, but I have to be in reality. This is Romney/Bobby Jindal vs. Obama/Joe Biden. The only change I made here was lowering the Democrat percentage of CA to the 50 percents. This year Salt Lake county Utah is going Republican for sure. I think Arizona will have the strength to Remain Republican this year, but most other states with significant Hispanic populations are Democrat.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:38:07 prediction Map
...except FL, for some strange reason. You don't even consider it a toss-up or a battleground or a "maybe" of any kind, eh? What's the thinking here?
-Jeff

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:29 prediction Map
I don't tend to do too many tossups. I might change it later, but for now I'll take a chance.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:43 prediction Map
Well, there's only one tossup on this map, that's probably why. I certainly wouldn't pick Colorado if I was going only going to pick a single state as a tossup though.

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:50:25 prediction Map
Right. With Mitt losing Hispanics 10 points worse than McCain did, I'd certainly not pick a 30% Hispanic state which Obama won by 9 last time as the "tossiest" of the toss-ups. My personal choice is NC, since one can never know what the local effect of the Raleigh convention will be until it's happened. I can see a local negative or a local positive resulting from it as equally likely eventualities. I suppose FL is the same the other way. And if some are seeing Rubio as the running mate... ?
-Jeff

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 01:20:14 prediction Map
I thought this was a funny prediction.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1421

I will change some things later.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 06:04:39 prediction Map
I think it is a very plausible outcome map...for something as it stands probably now or close to it with a couple of exceptions...

I might delete Iowa at this stage


 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:03:11 prediction Map
You think the link is? I think the link is very unlikely, in fact it is impossible. Are you talking about mine?

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 12:06:09

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:09:46 prediction Map
Delete Iowa? What do you mean delete it?


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 16 164 466T
P 2012 Senate 29/33 12/33 41/66 62.1% pie 3 195 241T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 195 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 39/52 11/52 50/104 48.1% pie 9 - 71T
Aggregate Predictions 130/152 70/152 200/304 65.8% pie



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