Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-20 Version:14

Prediction Map
BYUmormon Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
BYUmormon Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	294
Rep	235
Ind	0
Tos	9

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

I hate to give Colorado to the Democrats, but I have to be in reality. This is Romney/Bobby Jindal vs. Obama/Joe Biden. The only change I made here was lowering the Democrat percentage of CA to the 50 percents. This year Salt Lake county Utah is going Republican for sure. I think Arizona will have the strength to Remain Republican this year, but most other states with significant Hispanic populations are Democrat.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:38:07
...except FL, for some strange reason. You don't even consider it a toss-up or a battleground or a "maybe" of any kind, eh? What's the thinking here? -Jeff

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:29
I don't tend to do too many tossups. I might change it later, but for now I'll take a chance.

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:43
Well, there's only one tossup on this map, that's probably why. I certainly wouldn't pick Colorado if I was going only going to pick a single state as a tossup though.

By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:50:25
Right. With Mitt losing Hispanics 10 points worse than McCain did, I'd certainly not pick a 30% Hispanic state which Obama won by 9 last time as the "tossiest" of the toss-ups. My personal choice is NC, since one can never know what the local effect of the Raleigh convention will be until it's happened. I can see a local negative or a local positive resulting from it as equally likely eventualities. I suppose FL is the same the other way. And if some are seeing Rubio as the running mate... ? -Jeff

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 01:20:14
I thought this was a funny prediction. http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1421 I will change some things later.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 06:04:39
I think it is a very plausible outcome map...for something as it stands probably now or close to it with a couple of exceptions... I might delete Iowa at this stage

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:03:11
You think the link is? I think the link is very unlikely, in fact it is impossible. Are you talking about mine? Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 12:06:09

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:09:46
Delete Iowa? What do you mean delete it?

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	16	164	466	T
2012 Senate	29/33	12/33	41/66	62.1%	3	195	241	T
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	2	195	24	T
2012 Rep Primary	39/52	11/52	50/104	48.1%	9	-	71	T
Aggregate Predictions	130/152	70/152	200/304	65.8%