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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-28 Version:42

Prediction Map
canuck777 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
canuck777 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem267
 
Rep271
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem217
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos115
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-7-1-92222267-92
Rep+7+1+92000222179+92
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Election Simulator 2012 Version 2.1
Last two weeks worth of Romney vs Obama polls used. Leans and tossups included in this version but no percentages yet. As of right now it looks like a razor close election if it were to be held today. Difference from last version: Since 1976 over 80% of undecided voters break for the challenger on election day. History shows that the percentage of the vote that an incumbent president gets in the polls before Election Day is an accurate predictor of the percentage of the vote that he'll win on Election Day; an incumbent who fails to poll above 50% in the days right before an election is in serious danger of losing. The average increase on election day in the actual vote for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points. Despite this I have decided to be conservative and broke the undecided vote down as follows: Romney 55% Obama 43% Other 2%

National Vote Total by applying undecided formula
Romney 49.065%
Obama 49.023%
Others 1.912%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-04-29 @ 01:45:45 prediction Map
If anyone has any suggestions for a different way to break down the undecided vote let me know and I'll make a map using your numbers.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-29 @ 16:35:18 prediction Map
No, you are entitled to your opinon but I think some people are looking for assurances in order to vote for ROmney-its kind of the devil you have versus the unknown in some people's minds....in other words I think a better breakdown might be 60% challenger, 20% Obama and 20% not vote of undecideds.

But the result in your map is a real possibility although I say NH is for Obama right now and so is NV....but the loss of Pennsyl. while retaining VIrginia is a distinct possibility....

now saying that a win by Obama is also a possibility in the 326-212 range...in my mind!


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 46/56 27/56 73/112 65.2% pie 58 15 716T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 13/33 43/66 65.2% pie 11 2 328T
P 2004 President 48/56 12/56 60/112 53.6% pie 69 1 1782T
Aggregate Predictions 124/145 52/145 176/290 60.7% pie


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