Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Election Data

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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-28 Version:42

Prediction Map
canuck777 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
canuck777 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	267
Rep	271
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	217
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	115

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-7	-1	-92	22	2	267	-92
Rep	+7	+1	+92	0	0	0	22	2	179	+92
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Election Simulator 2012 Version 2.1
Last two weeks worth of Romney vs Obama polls used. Leans and tossups included in this version but no percentages yet. As of right now it looks like a razor close election if it were to be held today. Difference from last version: Since 1976 over 80% of undecided voters break for the challenger on election day. History shows that the percentage of the vote that an incumbent president gets in the polls before Election Day is an accurate predictor of the percentage of the vote that he'll win on Election Day; an incumbent who fails to poll above 50% in the days right before an election is in serious danger of losing. The average increase on election day in the actual vote for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points. Despite this I have decided to be conservative and broke the undecided vote down as follows: Romney 55% Obama 43% Other 2%

National Vote Total by applying undecided formula
Romney 49.065%
Obama 49.023%
Others 1.912%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-04-29 @ 01:45:45
If anyone has any suggestions for a different way to break down the undecided vote let me know and I'll make a map using your numbers.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-29 @ 16:35:18
No, you are entitled to your opinon but I think some people are looking for assurances in order to vote for ROmney-its kind of the devil you have versus the unknown in some people's minds....in other words I think a better breakdown might be 60% challenger, 20% Obama and 20% not vote of undecideds. But the result in your map is a real possibility although I say NH is for Obama right now and so is NV....but the loss of Pennsyl. while retaining VIrginia is a distinct possibility.... now saying that a win by Obama is also a possibility in the 326-212 range...in my mind!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	46/56	27/56	73/112	65.2%	58	15	716	T
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	13/33	43/66	65.2%	11	2	328	T
2004 President	48/56	12/56	60/112	53.6%	69	1	1782	T
Aggregate Predictions	124/145	52/145	176/290	60.7%

Links

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