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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-28 Version:42
|Prediction Key||Confidence Key|
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Election Simulator 2012 Version 2.1
Last two weeks worth of Romney vs Obama polls used. Leans and tossups included in this version but no percentages yet. As of right now it looks like a razor close election if it were to be held today. Difference from last version: Since 1976 over 80% of undecided voters break for the challenger on election day. History shows that the percentage of the vote that an incumbent president gets in the polls before Election Day is an accurate predictor of the percentage of the vote that he'll win on Election Day; an incumbent who fails to poll above 50% in the days right before an election is in serious danger of losing. The average increase on election day in the actual vote for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points. Despite this I have decided to be conservative and broke the undecided vote down as follows: Romney 55% Obama 43% Other 2%
National Vote Total by applying undecided formula
| By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-04-29 @ 01:45:45
| By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-29 @ 16:35:18
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