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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-01 Version:7

Prediction Map
EStreet MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
EStreet MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem308
 
Rep230
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem252
 
Rep153
 
Ind0
 
Tos133
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-51252308-51
Rep+4+1+51000222179+51
Ind0000000000


Analysis

What I believe to be Obama's worst-case scenario.

Obama/Biden-51.7%
Romney/Portman-46.4%
Other-1.9%

This assumes that the US economy will avoid a double-dip recession. Growth plateaus and no major crises or scandals harm the Obama administration. The unemployment rate hovers between 7.9 and 8.4-ish and growth doesn't take off but doesn't dip. Romney fails to excite conservatives or persuade swing voters and many reluctantly vote for Obama because of the campaign's success in portraying Romney as a "severe" economic conservative who is aloof to working people's problems and will say anything to get elected president. The president's traditional base turns out about as strong as it did in '08 and enough "swing voters" reluctantly vote for him despite a purveying sense of disappointment in his first term.

This analysis takes into account "suspect" analysts and pollsters (who stick to older pre-2008 and 2006 models) to predict election results, which is friendlier to Romney. Many people felt that 2010 was a return to the norm and that 2012 will not look a lot like 2008. Most of these people give Obama a slimmer lead than I believe he will end up having. This analysis represents a sort of halfway point between where I believe the election is headed (which I'll do for my next analysis) and where they believe it is, which is a 2-3 point Obama PV win and an EV total near 300.

**New Hampshire should be light blue, I just don't feel like changing it.


Prediction History
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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 30/36 17/36 47/72 65.3% pie 1 554 261T
P 2014 Governor 29/36 12/36 41/72 56.9% pie 1 554 224T
P 2012 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 8 153 561T
Aggregate Predictions 111/128 64/128 175/256 68.4% pie


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