PredictionsNewsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - EStreet (--KS) ResultsForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Advertisements

History Posters!
US Army


Election and History Posters from History Shots!

Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed


160-600-tplots-ad3

Date of Prediction: 2012-05-01 Version:7

Prediction Map
EStreet Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
EStreet Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem308
 
Rep230
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem252
 
Rep153
 
Ind0
 
Tos133
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-51252308-51
Rep+4+1+51000222179+51
Ind0000000000


Analysis

What I believe to be Obama's worst-case scenario.

Obama/Biden-51.7%
Romney/Portman-46.4%
Other-1.9%

This assumes that the US economy will avoid a double-dip recession. Growth plateaus and no major crises or scandals harm the Obama administration. The unemployment rate hovers between 7.9 and 8.4-ish and growth doesn't take off but doesn't dip. Romney fails to excite conservatives or persuade swing voters and many reluctantly vote for Obama because of the campaign's success in portraying Romney as a "severe" economic conservative who is aloof to working people's problems and will say anything to get elected president. The president's traditional base turns out about as strong as it did in '08 and enough "swing voters" reluctantly vote for him despite a purveying sense of disappointment in his first term.

This analysis takes into account "suspect" analysts and pollsters (who stick to older pre-2008 and 2006 models) to predict election results, which is friendlier to Romney. Many people felt that 2010 was a return to the norm and that 2012 will not look a lot like 2008. Most of these people give Obama a slimmer lead than I believe he will end up having. This analysis represents a sort of halfway point between where I believe the election is headed (which I'll do for my next analysis) and where they believe it is, which is a 2-3 point Obama PV win and an EV total near 300.

**New Hampshire should be light blue, I just don't feel like changing it.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 8 153 561T
Aggregate Predictions 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie


Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home

Ad: History Posters! - History of the Confederate Army


Election and History Posters from History Shots!

Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed

© David Leip 2012 All Rights Reserved