Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	283
Rep	255
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	254
Rep	204
Ind	0
Tos	80

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+2	0	+11	-8	-1	-87	21	2	272	-76
Rep	+8	+1	+87	-2	0	-11	20	2	168	+76
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Okay time to go off the ranch forawhile-this is the Clinton/Bush map of 2016....yes Jeb vs Hilary a fantasy dream for many people.

I have Hilary making inroads with some older establishment types while losing some traditional older states which are less for the Clintons...the big cahuna would be a narrow victory for her in FLorida...

Well, it could happen in some alternative universe!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: valencia.gatell (I-NY) 2012-05-04 @ 04:42:45
Sorry, but there's no way Jeb would lose Florida.

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-05-04 @ 04:57:13
Or West Virginia. Even Arkansas would be a stretch. Ohio would be a tossup.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-04 @ 16:50:43
Both WV and Arkansas have long ties to the CLinton's plus their strong support of coal industry would mean a return to traditional voting patterns in both states in my mind, the FLorida call was the diciest, but it is a fantasy map anyway..

By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2012-05-05 @ 18:41:48
I have a feeling Hillary is viewed more skeptically than Bill was in conservative places like West Virginia and Arkansas. Those states won't vote for a Democrat again until he or she exhibits some combination of extreme religiosity, affinity for austerity & disdain for social programs, racism, and anarcho-capitalism. :)

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-05-05 @ 23:25:44
Due to her current popularity Hillary would be tough to beat in 2016 despite the democrats holding the office for 8 years. However, I dont see Jebb Bush losing Florida after serving as that states governor. Hillary proably wouldn't be crushed there though as I think she has more favorable demographics in that state then Obama does today. I would still give her the election victory but in different more traditionally democratic states on a national level. I might even give her a narrow win in Virginia tough to say as the national climate is unknown. After leaving the state department in 2013 she would not be viewed as polarizing as she had been in 2008. The Bush name proably would still be damaged but not as bad as it is today, so perhaps a close race. Not really sure on Arkansas and West Virginia Id say they could be closer then 2008 and even what this November will be. I may do some 2016 maps for fun soon. Last Edit: 2012-05-05 @ 23:35:12

By: CR (--MO) 2012-05-06 @ 01:06:44
Gag no more Bushes please and thank you.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-06 @ 16:10:54
thanks CR that made me laugh! There are many more positive people in both parties for the future but I think the GOP bench is getter pretty wide with choices as I am sure you would agree. Last day in Japan than back to uSA. Living in some countries still makes one pine for the states for many reasons...

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T
Aggregate Predictions	280/326	118/326	398/652	61.0%