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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem283
 
Rep255
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem254
 
Rep204
 
Ind0
 
Tos80
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+20+11-8-1-87212272-76
Rep+8+1+87-20-11202168+76
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Okay time to go off the ranch forawhile-this is the Clinton/Bush map of 2016....yes Jeb vs Hilary a fantasy dream for many people.

I have Hilary making inroads with some older establishment types while losing some traditional older states which are less for the Clintons...the big cahuna would be a narrow victory for her in FLorida...

Well, it could happen in some alternative universe!


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: valencia.gatell (I-NY) 2012-05-04 @ 04:42:45 prediction Map
Sorry, but there's no way Jeb would lose Florida.

 By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-05-04 @ 04:57:13 prediction Map
Or West Virginia. Even Arkansas would be a stretch. Ohio would be a tossup.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-04 @ 16:50:43 prediction Map
Both WV and Arkansas have long ties to the CLinton's plus their strong support of coal industry would mean a return to traditional voting patterns in both states in my mind, the FLorida call was the diciest, but it is a fantasy map anyway..

 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2012-05-05 @ 18:41:48 prediction Map
I have a feeling Hillary is viewed more skeptically than Bill was in conservative places like West Virginia and Arkansas. Those states won't vote for a Democrat again until he or she exhibits some combination of extreme religiosity, affinity for austerity & disdain for social programs, racism, and anarcho-capitalism. :)

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-05-05 @ 23:25:44 prediction Map
Due to her current popularity Hillary would be tough to beat in 2016 despite the democrats holding the office for 8 years. However, I dont see Jebb Bush losing Florida after serving as that states governor. Hillary proably wouldn't be crushed there though as I think she has more favorable demographics in that state then Obama does today. I would still give her the election victory but in different more traditionally democratic states on a national level. I might even give her a narrow win in Virginia tough to say as the national climate is unknown. After leaving the state department in 2013 she would not be viewed as polarizing as she had been in 2008. The Bush name proably would still be damaged but not as bad as it is today, so perhaps a close race.

Not really sure on Arkansas and West Virginia Id say they could be closer then 2008 and even what this November will be.
I may do some 2016 maps for fun soon.

Last Edit: 2012-05-05 @ 23:35:12

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-05-06 @ 01:06:44 prediction Map
Gag no more Bushes please and thank you.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-06 @ 16:10:54 prediction Map
thanks CR that made me laugh! There are many more positive people in both parties for the future but I think the GOP bench is getter pretty wide with choices as I am sure you would agree.

Last day in Japan than back to uSA. Living in some countries still makes one pine for the states for many reasons...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T
Aggregate Predictions 282/328 120/328 402/656 61.3% pie


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