Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Advertisements

Advertise on the Atlas

Election Data

Become a Member

Time Plot Posters!

Date of Prediction: 2012-05-10 Version:57

Prediction Map
Liberalrocks Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Liberalrocks Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	256
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	76

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Analysis

Obama-Biden 50.4%
Romney-McDonnell 47.6%
Others 2.0%

Here is a rounded estimate as to how the states vote in this scenario prediction: % (Note not all states total 100% due to third party influence):

Alabama: Romney 64 Obama 35
Alaska: Romney 61, Obama 36
Arizona: Romney 52, Obama 47
Arkansas: Romney 61, Obama 38
California: Obama 59, Romney 40
Colorado: Obama 52, Romney 47
Connecticut: Obama 57, Romney 42
Delaware: Obama 58, Romney 42
DC: Obama 87, Romney 11
Florida: Romney 50, Obama 49
Georgia: Romney 56, Obama 43
Hawaii: Obama 68, Romney 30
Idaho: Romney 66, Obama 33
Illinois: Obama 58, Romney 42
Indiana: Romney 53, Obama 46
Iowa: Obama 51, Romney 48
Kansas: Romney 65, Obama 34
Kentucky: Romney 58, Obama 41
Louisiana: Romney 60, Obama 38
Maine: Obama 55, Romney 43
Maryland: Obama 62, Romney 38
Massachusetts: Obama 58, Romney 41
Michigan: Obama 54, Romney 45
Minnesota: Obama 53, Romney 45
Mississippi: Romney 58, Obama 41
Missouri: Romney 52, Obama 47
Montana: Romney 52, Obama 46
Nebraska: Romney 64, Obama 34
Nevada: Obama 52, Romney 46
New Hampshire: Obama 51, Romney 48
New Jersey: Obama 58, Romney 41
New Mexico: Obama 56, Romney 43
New York Obama 63, Romney 36
North Carolina: Romney 52, Obama 47
North Dakota: Romney 57, Obama 42
Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 49
Oklahoma: Romney 70, Obama 29
Oregon: Obama 54, Romney 44
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, Romney 46
Rhode Island: Obama 60, Romney 39
South Carolina: Romney 60, Obama 40
South Dakota: Romney 60, Obama 40
Tennessee: Romney 60, Obama 39
Texas: Romney 53, Obama 46
Utah: Romney 72, Obama 28
Vermont: Obama 67, Romney 31
Virginia: Obama 51, Romney 48
Washington: Obama 56, Romney 42
West Virginia: Romney 61, Obama 38
Wisconsin: Obama 53, Romney 46
Wyoming: Romney 70, Obama 29

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-05-10 @ 16:03:30
I've lowered the toss up states in this scenario but realize a few more states are still categorized that way. I strengthen winning margins in some deep southern states due to Obama's stance on gay marriage, and southern economies (inspite of Mitt's mormonism) which I believe will hurt Obama in that region slightly. However Obama wasnt likely to win many states south of the mason-dixon anyway before this stance, and didn't in 2008. I have strengthen Obama's winning margin out of Pennsylvania where his polling numbers have improved. It may still be a toss up in the fall but if the election were held today I think he would carry it with a "lean" margin. Despite the gay marriage stance I don't expect it will hurt him substantially in Virginia as much as other southern states due to the Northern DC influence on that issue and large african american turnout. Other factors will contribute to him winning or losing that state but his numbers have been stable in the state thus far and have not fluctuated as much as other toss ups. I have the state tighter in this scenario due to McDonnell's influence. Im not big on the whole pick a running mate and that guarantee's you the state, while it helps people rarely vote only for the bottom of the ticket. Last Edit: 2012-05-10 @ 16:37:18

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-10 @ 16:47:52
That's an impressive analysis. I think it's probably how the election will go, assuming people get to know Romney, and his influence and Obama's cancel each other out. But we'll see lots of movement on the long and winding road that leads to November.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-10 @ 18:59:13
Well this is the average on the map of all of us, and is the same as mine. Still to be determined are individual states where somethings might change but if it were held today I would bet on your map... thank you!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	97	1	77	T
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	48	0	40	T
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	12	0	24	T
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	26/52	70/104	67.3%	67	-	5	T
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	71	1	63	T
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	44	5	106	T
2008 President	51/56	42/56	93/112	83.0%	53	1	139	T
2008 Senate	31/33	15/33	46/66	69.7%	4	24	227	T
2008 Governor	8/11	5/11	13/22	59.1%	2	17	232	T
2008 Dem Primary	49/52	18/52	67/104	64.4%	24	-	23	T
2008 Rep Primary	33/49	16/49	49/98	50.0%	7	-	55	T
Aggregate Predictions	383/427	243/427	626/854	73.3%