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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-10 Version:57

Prediction Map
Liberalrocks Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Liberalrocks Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem256
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos76
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Analysis

Obama-Biden 50.4%
Romney-McDonnell 47.6%
Others 2.0%

Here is a rounded estimate as to how the states vote in this scenario prediction: % (Note not all states total 100% due to third party influence):


Alabama: Romney 64 Obama 35
Alaska: Romney 61, Obama 36
Arizona: Romney 52, Obama 47
Arkansas: Romney 61, Obama 38
California: Obama 59, Romney 40
Colorado: Obama 52, Romney 47
Connecticut: Obama 57, Romney 42
Delaware: Obama 58, Romney 42
DC: Obama 87, Romney 11
Florida: Romney 50, Obama 49
Georgia: Romney 56, Obama 43
Hawaii: Obama 68, Romney 30
Idaho: Romney 66, Obama 33
Illinois: Obama 58, Romney 42
Indiana: Romney 53, Obama 46
Iowa: Obama 51, Romney 48
Kansas: Romney 65, Obama 34
Kentucky: Romney 58, Obama 41
Louisiana: Romney 60, Obama 38
Maine: Obama 55, Romney 43
Maryland: Obama 62, Romney 38
Massachusetts: Obama 58, Romney 41
Michigan: Obama 54, Romney 45
Minnesota: Obama 53, Romney 45
Mississippi: Romney 58, Obama 41
Missouri: Romney 52, Obama 47
Montana: Romney 52, Obama 46
Nebraska: Romney 64, Obama 34
Nevada: Obama 52, Romney 46
New Hampshire: Obama 51, Romney 48
New Jersey: Obama 58, Romney 41
New Mexico: Obama 56, Romney 43
New York Obama 63, Romney 36
North Carolina: Romney 52, Obama 47
North Dakota: Romney 57, Obama 42
Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 49
Oklahoma: Romney 70, Obama 29
Oregon: Obama 54, Romney 44
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, Romney 46
Rhode Island: Obama 60, Romney 39
South Carolina: Romney 60, Obama 40
South Dakota: Romney 60, Obama 40
Tennessee: Romney 60, Obama 39
Texas: Romney 53, Obama 46
Utah: Romney 72, Obama 28
Vermont: Obama 67, Romney 31
Virginia: Obama 51, Romney 48
Washington: Obama 56, Romney 42
West Virginia: Romney 61, Obama 38
Wisconsin: Obama 53, Romney 46
Wyoming: Romney 70, Obama 29


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-05-10 @ 16:03:30 prediction Map
I've lowered the toss up states in this scenario but realize a few more states are still categorized that way.

I strengthen winning margins in some deep southern states due to Obama's stance on gay marriage, and southern economies (inspite of Mitt's mormonism) which I believe will hurt Obama in that region slightly. However Obama wasnt likely to win many states south of the mason-dixon anyway before this stance, and didn't in 2008.

I have strengthen Obama's winning margin out of Pennsylvania where his polling numbers have improved. It may still be a toss up in the fall but if the election were held today I think he would carry it with a "lean" margin.

Despite the gay marriage stance I don't expect it will hurt him substantially in Virginia as much as other southern states due to the Northern DC influence on that issue and large african american turnout. Other factors will contribute to him winning or losing that state but his numbers have been stable in the state thus far and have not fluctuated as much as other toss ups. I have the state tighter in this scenario due to McDonnell's influence. Im not big on the whole pick a running mate and that guarantee's you the state, while it helps people rarely vote only for the bottom of the ticket.

Last Edit: 2012-05-10 @ 16:37:18

 By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-10 @ 16:47:52 prediction Map
That's an impressive analysis.

I think it's probably how the election will go, assuming people get to know Romney, and his influence and Obama's cancel each other out. But we'll see lots of movement on the long and winding road that leads to November.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-10 @ 18:59:13 prediction Map
Well this is the average on the map of all of us, and is the same as mine. Still to be determined are individual states where somethings might change but if it were held today I would bet on your map...

thank you!


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 97 1 77T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 48 0 40T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 12 0 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 44/52 26/52 70/104 67.3% pie 67 - 5T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 71 1 63T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 44 5 106T
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 53 1 139T
P 2008 Senate 31/33 15/33 46/66 69.7% pie 4 24 227T
P 2008 Governor 8/11 5/11 13/22 59.1% pie 2 17 232T
P 2008 Dem Primary 49/52 18/52 67/104 64.4% pie 24 - 23T
P 2008 Rep Primary 33/49 16/49 49/98 50.0% pie 7 - 55T
Aggregate Predictions 383/427 243/427 626/854 73.3% pie



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