Some significant updates this time - all in the direction of Romney. With the awful jobs numbers that have recently come out, I think the situation is looking increasingly dire for Obama. And polls seem to be increasingly reflecting that. I increased Romney's margin of victory for WY, UT, ND, LA, AR, & KY. Of the Leans Republican states, I consider Indiana, Missouri, and Arizona very likely to go for Romney but am reluctant to move them into safe GOP territory this early. North Carolina I expect to be more competitive, and I am now moving Florida into the Leans Republican category as well. Along with Virginia and New Hampshire, I am moving Iowa and Ohio into the Tossup Republican category. All four of these states are close and could go either way, but for now I expect a narrow Romney win in those states. Along with Colorado, I am moving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania into the Tossup Democrat category. I think the likely Walker win in the WI recall on Tuesday puts Romney in a better position there. In the end, I think Obama will win PA, but I do see it as a very competitive state. Of the Leans Democrat states, I see Nevada and Minnesota as especially competitive for Romney, New Mexico and Michigan a bit less so, and Oregon, New Jersey, and Maine to be the longest shots for Romney but potentially competitive if the economy continues to falter. I have moved New Jersey back into the Leans Democrat category from safe territory because of Obama's weakened election position. I don't see any weakening in Obama's position in any of the other safe Democratic states.

I am more optimistic about the ability of Republicans to win this election than I have been in quite some time -- at least 9 months.