Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-03 Version:32

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	297
Rep	241
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	221
Rep	174
Ind	0
Tos	143

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-62	25	2	297	-62
Rep	+4	+1	+62	0	0	0	22	2	179	+62
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

This is my July map as I will take a break for a few weeks and let the summer heat bake the candidates. Poor economic news for Obama will dim his chances even further but better than average economy in Virginia and Ohio will help, recent health care vote cuts both ways..

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-03 @ 11:57:11
It would be easy for three state to cross the other way- Virginia, NH and Wisconsin in that order in my mind. I feel the economy hurts in the latter but health care hurts in some of the former. Campaign awaits the conventions....only surprise this month ROmney VP choice.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-05 @ 14:15:22
We now being the summer doldrums for campaigning where ROmney hopes for negative economic news and makes his surprise VP choice...otherwise there is little to move in July...August will be different with the GOP convention....until then.....?

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-14 @ 09:58:22
Although I do not think Rice has a chance the media speculation that she is on top of list is very interesting-fueled from where?

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2012-07-16 @ 15:33:55
I just never ceases to amaze me how diametrically different this map is to 1976 Carter / Ford, but with very similar EC results. Wild. Yepp, times have changed.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T
Aggregate Predictions	280/326	118/326	398/652	61.0%