Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-24 Version:36

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	284
Rep	254
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	211
Rep	196
Ind	0
Tos	131

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-1	-75	24	2	284	-75
Rep	+5	+1	+75	0	0	0	22	2	179	+75
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

I have moved Michigan back to Obama with recent polls having him ahead by six which changes my basic moving everyone with 2% for Obama or less into Romney totals.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-24 @ 14:54:08
A close race by any means. however, the economy has improved in strategic auto industry and Obama gets credit for that in Detroit's auto industry.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-24 @ 18:07:55
Which state does Obama-D win first(MI-16 or OH-18). Obama-D wins NM-5 and MN-10 by a double digit margin.(194ev) OR-7,WI-10,and PA-20 by a 5-10 point margin.(231ev) NV-6,NH-4,and CO-9 by narrow margin.(250ev) He is probally going to take MI-16(266ev) What is left is either OH-18,IA-6,VA-13,or FL-29. How much help is Portman(R-OH) going to be for Romney-R in OH-18?

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-24 @ 19:13:14
I feel Obama wins Michigan first and Ohio after that, Portmann might add2% in Ohio. But in the last election Ohio was abnormally for Obama while in two previous elections it was barely GOP...I feel it will have a plus 3% over national average... so if Obama is +1.5% he will be plus 4.5% in Ohio...I think this is a comnination of economy which is better in Ohio than nation on average and good part of that is auto industry BUT there is the state government which is not popular which helps Obama too... so I feel in the end Obama will hold MN, MI and Ohio as well as IL with strong potential for Iowa but drought might make the farmers ornery...so at least 64 E votes added to east coast 108 EV and pacific 78 and you get 250 electoral votes with possibility of NM, NV, CO and NH to add for victory not to mention VA...that is the path I feel.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-24 @ 19:45:33
Let's not forget WI is another battleground Midwestern State Obama-D could win.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-25 @ 06:02:52
Yes but I guess the feeling I have is that like MN it tilts to Obama but i forgot to include it. I can only rmember that alot of the anti recall vote were Obama supporters who felt a recall was the wrong way to handle disagreement with the governor. It should have been 260 electoral votes with possibility of NM, NV, CO and NH.... thanks for catching my mental slip... Last Edit: 2012-07-26 @ 12:39:58

By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-07-27 @ 00:47:18
A very possible scenario, even though I think AZ will be more solid than lean. I thought it would be much closer earlier but it still looks it's still pro-Republican enough to stay with Romney. I agree with you on OH being more possible for Obama than VA, too, even though most here would probably disagree with us. VA has a much more southern flavor than OH does, except possibly for southern OH which will have to be watched carefully as well. I think the same is true for MO too. MO still backed McCain in 2008 even with the negative tide of the Republican Party at the time. But in MO a lean Republican or Democratic vote is usually considered a landslide. Very rarely do you see candidates from either the Democratic or Republican Parties win in double-digit landslides there. I do give Obama a slight edge in IA right now as well, probably anywhere between 1 to 4 points. The 9 point win by Obama there in 2008 was most definitely a "landslide" as far as IA is concerned. It's like MO in that way but but much more Democratic than MO is especially with the white middle class. IA doesn't have a major city like Kansas City or St. Louis in MO, unless you consider Des Moines one. There aren't nearly as many African-American voters in IA as in MO as well even though MO has Kansas City and St. Louis and IA doesn't. The fact that IA is still more Democratic than MO despite a much lower percentage of the black vote there should tell you that the white middle class in IA is much, much more pro-Democratic than it's neighbor MO to the south is. I would probably switch MI and WI as well, but I would actually place MI in the lean Dem category just like WI. I still think MI will support Obama slightly more than WI will. I think the margins in MI and WI will be very similar to each other just like they were in 2008 but by a much reduced margin. Really I think the margins both states might very well be eerily identical to each other as well. I think MI will be at least be 1 to 4 points solid than WI will, at least right now. Again wait and see as always. Election Day is still a long way to go though and "anything can and will happen in politics" as I always say. The same is true for my saying "Wait and see as always" as well. Last Edit: 2012-07-27 @ 00:56:12

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-27 @ 10:37:42
The wild card in OH is Portman. Assuming Portman is Romney's VP runningmate. Will he Portman be able to turn OH into a Tossup/Romney state or does Obama's strength in Northern OH offset Portman's strength in Southern OH.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-27 @ 11:51:09
The weaskamerica polling group put out a +8 Ohio Obama poll today. They thought it might be an outlier so went back in the state and repolled and got the same number. A fairly large number of GOP were voting for Obama...I believe if this holds it is the result of the vastly improving economy in Ohio versus other parts of the country. It appears that a 5-10 lead in most states Obama took last time is what is currently happening...less than he initially won except Ohio.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-27 @ 17:56:38
MN-10 and OH-18 are the only 2 states Obama-D is polling higher than his 2008 numbers.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-28 @ 07:04:30
Here in MN we have some unique happenings. First the state shutdown is blamed heavily on the GOP especially by the independents. MN nice is still common and this shutdown was thought to cause undue pain for the state. The independent party candidates campaigned heavily 2 years ago against this type of governing. The GOP is debt ridden in the state and refuses to pay bills to some counties. It has been fined for election violations by the independent state commision on elections. We have a fairly good governor and the most popular politician is running for re-election Amy Klobuchar. The tide here is toward the DFL....for a while at least.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T
Aggregate Predictions	280/326	118/326	398/652	61.0%