Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-28 Version:37

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	290
Rep	248
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	227
Rep	196
Ind	0
Tos	115

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-69	25	2	290	-69
Rep	+4	+1	+69	0	0	0	22	2	179	+69
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

I switched Iowa back to Obama and increased lieklihood of Michigan going emocratic. Still CO and VA are equally volitile in my mind as Iowa, NH and Ohio...

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-28 @ 14:58:58
Just two changes from last time and now we are in the Olympics...

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-07-28 @ 23:46:24
I respect you for all the changes you make -- this is the 37th version. The reason I don't make changes is that they cease at some point to be predictions and become instead merely projections of the latest polls. I made my prediction on 11/03/2011 and I'll stick with it. I predicted in 2009 that the Dems would get "shellacked" in the 2010 elections if they passed DemocratCare. I think far-in-the-future predictions are the best. Btw, it's not that I want Romney to win; I don't. And I think he's the weakest possible nominee for the GOP to run this year. But I thought on 11/03/2011 -- and today -- that Obama will get crushed no matter who the GOP runs. (The only thing that gives me pause is that during the GOP primaries, the MSM reminded me how powerful it was.)

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-07-30 @ 15:03:34
Yes I like to do new polls every so often to pass the boredom in the rhetoric of this election. I honestly feel that the debates will decide this thing and it could be like 1980 IF Romney can catch the wave like Reagan did BUT Reagan was more personable and able to communicate well....

By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-08-04 @ 10:14:28
Your current map is actually identical to my current map right now dnul222 as far as the states are concerned. I don't think MO will be in play and a tossup though, at least for now. It could be in the case of an Obama landslide which is also highly unlikely too but that would probably be the only way it could happen. Last Edit: 2012-08-04 @ 19:36:36

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-05 @ 10:19:39
if I was to change the map for November I might shift Colorado to Romney as they are providing a ground game to match Obamas... additionally watch iowa as the enthusiasum for Romney is low but the heat has dried up some of the corn crop for sure and maybe some of peoples feelings for oabama...it could be the closest of races in the nation in my opinion BUT wait until the debates.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-05 @ 12:16:25
It seems like we've been in the race forever but its important to remember that we do have a long way to go. Romney's VP pick, conventions, debates, the fall slug-fest, and more. All eyes on Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-06 @ 06:40:11
Yes it has been a long time since we have been campagining since 2010 at least agree with the important states

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-07 @ 00:19:44
"Yes it has been a long time since we have been campagining since 2010 at least" -- dnul The 2010 election was decided on Mar. 23, 2010 (the ObamaCare passage). The 2012 election was decided in early-October, 2011, when 3Q 2011 statistics showed that Obama had officially put us in the worst economy since Hoover. Btw, dnul, I found out why I was banned from the forum. It was after the majority there claimed that Obama's "you didn't build that" remark was nothing important and I disagreed, calling it "a turning point in the campaign". That did it; I was out for that. Last Edit: 2012-08-07 @ 00:20:48

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-07 @ 14:13:39
Well although an Obama supporter I find that a major political gaffe by him in that he presented it in such a negative elaboration instead of saying any successful person is also supported by the community in which they live including others who work hard for the new enterprise. I have to agree with you it was a bad remark, well at least here it is not missed. Thanks for adding the explanation...strange.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T
Aggregate Predictions	280/326	118/326	398/652	61.0%