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 Date of Prediction: 2012-07-30 Version:26

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos63
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election
Solid Obama-D
DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,and CA-55(142ev)- Obama-D recieves at least 60 percent of the popular vote or wins by at least a 20 percent margin.
Likely Obama-D
CT-7,ME-4,WA-12,NJ-14,NM-5,and MN-10(194ev)-Obama-D recieves at least 55 percent of the popular vote or wins by at least a 10 percent margin.
Lean Obama-D
OR-7,WI-10,PA-20,MI-16,and NV-6(253ev)-Obama-D wins by a high single digit margin.
Tossup Obama-D
OH-18,NH-4,CO-9,IA-6,and VA-13(303ev)-Obama-D wins by a narrow margin.
Solid Romney-R
UT-6,OK-7,WY-3,ID-4,AL-9,AK-3,AR-6,KS-6,LA-8,ND-3,WV-5,NE-5,KY-8,TN-11,SD-3,MS-6,and TX-38(131ev)-Romney-R wins by a double digit margin.
Likely/Lean Rommey-R
MT-3,SC-9,GA-16,IN-11,AZ-11,and MO-10(191)-Romney-R wins by a high single digit margin.
Tossup Romney-R
NC-15 and FL-29(235ev)-Romney-R wins by a narrow margin.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-30 @ 17:20:22 prediction Map
Obama-D is going to carry all of the states Kerry-D won in 2004 by a high single digit margin(DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,CT-7,ME-4,WA-12,and NJ-14)=179ev.- Obama-D is going to win in 2012 by a double digit margin.
Obama-D won in 2008 by a double digit margin(MI-16,OR-7,NM-5,WI-10,NV-6,PA-20,and MN-10)=253ev- Obama-D is going to win in 2012 by a high single digit margin.
Obama-D won in 2008 by a high single digit margin(NH-4,IA-6,CO-9,VA-13,and OH-18)=303ev- Obama-D is going to win in 2012 by a narrow margin.
Obama-D won in 2008 by a narrow margin(FL-29,IN-11,an NC-15). Obama-D will narrowly loses those states in 2012.
Romney-R will carry all of the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,and FL-29=235ev.
Romney-R has a potential of winning NH-4,IA-6,CO-9,and VA-13=267ev.
Obama-D is going to win- NM-5,NV-6,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,OH-18,and PA-20=271ev




Last Edit: 2012-07-30 @ 17:28:47
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-31 @ 11:17:04 prediction Map
The minimum amount of electoral votes Obama-D is likely to receive is 247ev. Obama-D wins all of the states that went Democratic during the last 5 elections (PA-20,MI-16,WI-10,MN-10,and OR-7) plus NM-5=247ev.
The maximum amount of electoral votes Obama-D is likely to recieve is 347ev. Obama-D is fighting to win
NH-4,NV-6,IA-6,CO-9,VA-13,NC-15,OH-18,and FL-29.
Romney-R electoral vote base is 191ev. Romney-R wins the McCain states plus IN-11. The tossup battleground states Romney-R will end up winning is FL-29 and NC-15=235ev.
Obama-D wins NH-4,and NV-6=257ev.
IA-6,CO-9,VA-13,and OH-18.
Obama-D is closer to reaching to 270ev than Romney-R.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-01 @ 00:32:03 prediction Map
2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D is strongly favored to win
CA-55,CT-7,DE-3,DC-3,HI-4,IL-20,ME-4,MD-10,MA-11,MN-10,NJ-14,NM-5,NY-29,RI-4,VT-3,and WA-12=194ev
Obama-D is favored to win
CO-9,MI-16,NV-6,NH-4,OH-18,OR-7,PA-20,and WI-10=284ev
Obama-D is slightly favored to win
FL-29(313ev)
IA-6(319ev)
NC-15(334ev)
VA-13(347ev)
 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-08-01 @ 15:48:55 prediction Map
For some reason, I think I like this map. ;>
Your analysis is spot-on, keep it up, please.
-Jeff
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-02 @ 07:31:30 prediction Map
Obama-D's likely victory- being more likely to reach over the 270 plus ev by winning all of the Kerry States plus NM-5,NV-6,CO-9,and one other battleground state- will help Republican win some Tossup US Senate Races by arguing - no to sending Obama-D a blank check. Ie- US Senate Races NV(Heller-R vs Berkley-D), or VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R),

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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