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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-01 Version:27

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos63
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-1-1-12282347-12
Rep+1+1+12000222179+12
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D wins by a double digit margin(DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,CT-7,ME-4,WA-12,NJ-14,NM-5,and MN-10)=194ev
Obama-D wins by a high single digit margin(MI-16,OR-7,WI-10,NV-6,PA-20,NH-4,CO-9,and OH-18)=284ev
Obama-D wins by a narrow margin(IA-6,VA-13,FL-29,and NC-15)=347ev.
Romney-R is more or less going to win the McCain States plus IN-11(191ev). He wins IN-11,MO-10,and MT-3 with more than 5 percent of the popular vote. He wins the Dakota's by a double digit margin.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-01 @ 10:09:28 prediction Map
Obama-D is going to win all of the Kerry States including NH-4,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20 plus NM-5,NV-6,CO-9,and OH-18. along with IA-6,VA-13,FL-29 and NC-15.
Romney-R wins McCain States plus IN-11(191ev).

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-01 @ 12:01:15 prediction Map
Basically you're saying that Pelosi will be Speaker again.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-01 @ 12:10:44 prediction Map
No he is saying that Obama is in again...I do not think anyone is predicting that the DEMS gain more than 3-6 seats...and they might well lose the senate.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-02 @ 02:05:24 prediction Map
DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,and DE-3=17ev(Obama-D wins those states by at least a 25 percent margin.)
NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,and CA-55=142ev(Obama-D wins those states by at least a 20 percent margin.)
ME-4,CT-7,WA-12,and NJ-14=179ev(Obama-D wins those states by at least a 15 percent margin.)
MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7=201ev(Obama-D wins those states by at least a 10 percent margin.)
MI-16,PA-20,and WI-10=247ev(Obama-D wins those states by at least a 5 percent margin.)
NV-6,NH-4,IA-6,and CO-9
OH-18 and VA-13
FL-29
Regarding the US Senate. Democrats are going to lose NE(Fischer-R defeats Kerrey-D by a landslide) and MO(Brunner-R defeats McCaskill-D by a high single digit margin.) -2D/+2R.
Democrats have a 50-50 chance of losing ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R),and MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R)-4D/+4R.
Democrats keep WI(Baldwin-D defeats Hovde-R),VA(Kaine-D defeats Allen-R),FL(Nelson-D defeats Mack-R),NM(Heinrich-D defeats Wilson-D), OH(Brown-D defeats Mandel-R), CT(Murphy-D defeats McMahon-R) and HI(Hirono-D defeats Lingle-R). Democratic incumbents in NJ,MI,WV,WA,PA,MN,RI,CA,MD,NY,DE,and VT are strongly favored to win re-election.
Republicans lose ME(King-I/D), and MA(Warren-D defeats Brown-R). -2D/+2R.
Republicans have a 50-50 chance of holding onto IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-D) and NV(Heller-R vs Berkley-D). Republicans keep AZ(Flake-R defeats Carmona-D) and TX(Cruz-R defeats Sadler-D). Republican incumbents in UT,TN,MS,and WY are shoe ins.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-02 @ 03:07:39 prediction Map
Regarding the US House.
AZ(+2D/-1R)
AR(-1D/+1R)+1D
CA(+4D/-4R)+5D/-4R
CO(+1D/-1R)+6D/-5R
FL(+3D/-1R)+9D/-6R
GA(-1D/+2R)+8D/-4R
IL(+3D/-4R)+11D/-8R
IN(-1D/+1R)+10D/-7R
IA(-1R)+10D/-8R
LA(-1R)+10D/-9R
MD(+1D/-1R)+11D/-10R
MA(-1D)+10D/-10R
MI(-1D)+9D/-10R
MN(+1D/-1R)+10D/-11R
MO(-1D)+9D/-11R
NV(+1D)+10D/-11R
NH(+1D/-1R)+11D/-12R
NJ(-1D)+10D/-12R
NY(-2R)+10D/-14R
NC(-3D/+3R)+7D/-11R
OH(+1D/-3R)+8D/-14R
OK(-1D/+1R)+7D/-13R
PA(-1D)+6D/-13R
SC(+1R)+6D/-12R
TX(+3D/+1R)+9D/-11R
UT(+1R)+9D/-10R
WA(+1D)+10D/-10R
+10D/-10R
Democrats hold onto MA-6 and RI-1 due to Obama coattails.
I am underestimating (CA-10,CO-6,FL-26,IL-12,IL-13,IA-4,NV-3,NH-1,NY-19,and OH-1)


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 145/161 105/161 250/322 77.6% pie



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