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 Date of Prediction: 2012-08-02 Version:28

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos63
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-1-1-12282347-12
Rep+1+1+12000222179+12
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Romney-R wins by double digit margin.
UT-6
WY-3(9)
OK-7(16)
ID-4(20)
AL-9(29)
AK-3(32)
AR-6(38)
KS-6(44)
WV-5(49)
ND-3(52)
LA-8(60)
NE-5(65)
MS-6(71)
SD-3(74)
KY-8(82)
TN-11(93)
TX-38(131)
Romney-R wins by a high single digit margin.
MT-3(134)
SC-9(143)
IN-11(154)
AZ-11(165)
GA-16(181)
MO-10(191)
Romney-R wins by a narrow margin
NC-15(206)
Tossup
VA-13(219)
FL-29(248)42


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-02 @ 23:22:32 prediction Map
Obama-D wins by a double digit margin.
DC-3
HI-4(7)
VT-3(10)
RI-4(14)
DE-3(17)
NY-29(46)
MA-11(57)
MD-10(67)
IL-20(87)
CA-55(142)
CT-7(149)
ME-4(153)
NJ-14(167)
WA-12(179)
MN-10(189)
NM-5(194)
OR-7(201)
Obama-D wins by a high single digit margin.
WI-10(211)
NV-6(217)
PA-20(237)
MI-16(253)
NH-4(257)
CO-9(266)
Tossup
IA-6(272)
OH-18(290)
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-02 @ 23:32:34 prediction Map
Romney-R is doing poorly in states that he needs to win.
A statistical tie in NC-15, He loses VA-13 because of Goode(Conservative), FL-29 will be closer than expected but Obama-D ends up winning. Romney's toast in OH-18 or NH-4,IA-6,CO-9,and NV-6.
Romney-R has no chance in PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10.
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-03 @ 05:40:49 prediction Map
As of today your notes are correct, we have the positive barrage coming after the Olympics of VP and GOP convention...

of course than we have blowback of DEM convention and Labor day....

on to the debates the real defining moment...
 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-03 @ 11:37:51 prediction Map
Those D+19 polls showing Obama with a 10-point lead really have you Democrats excited, eh?

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/02/Poll-Farce-Pew-Boosts-Obama

In 2008, the electorate was D+7. According to Gallup, the electorate currently is D+2; according to Rasmussen, it's R+1.

Btw, Tea Party views are still banned at the forum.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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