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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-03 Version:74

Prediction Map
bluemcdowell Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
bluemcdowell Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem290
 
Rep248
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem217
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos115
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-69252290-69
Rep+4+1+69000222179+69
Ind0000000000


Analysis


This is my latest map with the changes that OH, IA, NH, and go CO will go Democratic instead of Republican. As for now Obama is comfortably ahead in OH (at least it is in OH) which actually is actually surprising me right now.

I was thinking about placing OH as the only change but I think if OH goes Democratic then definitely CO, NH, and IA would go Dem as well but now I'm not so sure. So I made the other changes as well but I might very well place them back Republican on my next one, along with keeping OH Democratic.

If Obama carries OH alone with no other changes at all Obama still wins 271-267. That again shows you how OH is so important is especially for Republicans.

As for VA I still have it as Republican, but it still could do Democratic as well, but I think the rich Appalachian and Southern tradition of VA will overcome Northern Virginia, the Richmond area, and the Hampton Roads area the most Democratic parts of VA. It will still be razor-thin close that's for sure.

VA will most likely mean nothing though if OH goes Democratic, and Obama is ahead by a pretty good sized margin right now in OH terms. OH is one of the those "purple" states that a 5 point win is usually considered a landslide.

But if OH does indeed go Republican then VA will mean everything and the most key state of the election.

Like I said before I still feel that OH, VA, IA, and CO are the main four states that will decide this election. However I may have to add FL too. FL is almost 50/50 right now according to the latest polls.

Here is my analysis from my last map, if you all haven't checked it out as of yet. Wait and see as always!

Here is my analysis from my last map version 73

This is my "turnout" map, based believe or not on the current
Chick-fil-A situation. Far more people are supporting Chick-fil-A than aren't it seems, and that's bad news for Obama and the Democrats.

Right now even though I think Romney is the weaker candidate between him and Obama I still might have to give him the slight edge in this election believe it or not due to the anti-Obama tide in this country today.

I still believe blacks love Obama enough to turn out in droves for him just like in 2008, but I think white evangelical vote could very well at least match the black pro-Obama vote if not blow it away it this time. White evangelicals weren't nearly as enthusiastic in 2008 as they are today, even with a weak Romney on top of the ticket. The Deep South and Appalachian easily go to Romney, and WV and KY could even go 2 to 1 against Obama believe it or not. I still think that's very much possible.

The bases of both parties look very strong right now despite the reservations about their respective candidates.

The key voters in this election will be the independent mostly white middle-class voters in the Midwestern and Rocky Mountain swing states, along with VA, FL, and PA. Believe it or not these voters are probably disappointed and disgusted with both choices right now, and may not turnout as much in 2012, especially compared to recent elections. Whoever wins these voters will most likely determine who wins this election. And sadly probably turnout the least despite being by far the most important voters of this year's election.

I myself am very, very disappointed in Obama but Romney is even much worse, if you can possibly believe that. That's not saying much is it? I think things in the U.S.A. will continue to get much worse no matter who wins, that our best days as a country may very well be behind us, and may believe American civilization may be in permanent decline unfortunately.

And after just 236 years whereas most prior civilizations lasted longer and in some cases much longer than that. And I'm shocked by it. All major civilizations have declined before us so why should the United States of America be any different?

Still even at that I am very unpleasantly surprised. I just like most Americans felt this would be the longest lasting in not permanent lasting civilization ever on the face of the earth but instead the exact opposite seems to be happening believe it or not.

The only real question marks on this map are OH, VA, NH, IA and CO for the Republicans, as they are currently slightly behind in all those states, especially OH and NH. And MI (I am probably underestimating Obama's support there), WI, and PA for the Democrats, and possibly NV and FL as well.

Right now despite both the Republican and Democratic bases' extreme skepticism of both Romney and Obama I think their turnout will still be the highest of all voting demographics. Sadly the white middle-class not as much unfortunately, even though they are the most key demographic and the voters who almost always decides the elections.

And I still think it's very possible for either Obama or Romney to win the electoral candidates even if either of them lose the popular vote, just like in 2000. This time though I think that Obama would be the beneficiary, because he's probably going to lose the 2008 McCain states by much larger margins than Romney is going to lose by even in the most solid of the 2008 Obama states. If that happens Obama would be the very 1st Democratic presidential candidate ever to benefit from that, as all candidates who lost the popular vote but still yet win the electoral college were all Republicans.

We all know by now that it is still a long way to go until Election Day, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics, except perhaps for Obama ever winning WV and KY lol. A "historic gaffe" could change everything.

And of course my favorite saying "Wait and see as always."
That looks like it will definitely be the case once again here in 2012.




Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-08-03 @ 21:57:12 prediction Map
This is my latest map, with OH, IA, CO, and NH going Democratic instead of Republican as of now.

I might have to add FL too it seems like the presidential race is tightening down there right now

Last Edit: 2012-08-03 @ 23:51:26

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-08-10 @ 00:38:47 prediction Map
There has been very little if any change in the electoral map the last week so I'm keeping my map as it is right now.

I might place PA as lean Dem I might been too generous to Republicans there. If Romney could possibly win PA it changes everything. But it doesn't look good for him there right now. Ditto for WI.

I've added FL as the 5th main swing state that will decide this election. I still have a slight Romney edge right now but it's at or less than 1 percent at about 50.5/49.5.

This shows how divided this nation is, with the vast majority of the states solidly in either Obama or Romney's camp right now.

I still don't believe Obama will carry any of the 2008 McCain states. They seem very solid right now more so than the 2008 Obama states.

I think than less than 10 percent of the 2008 McCain voters will vote for Obama in 2012. Perhaps even less than 5 percent. Same is true for the 2008 Obama voters.

It's the white middle class "swing voters" that will decide this election, since the bases of both parties are both very solid right now in support of Obama and Romney.

The five "Swing States" of as now to decide this election in order of importance: OH, FL, VA, IA, and CO. You could possibly switch IA and CO. You might be able to add some more states in the future bus as of now I highly doubt it.

If Obama carries OH and/or FL he'll almost certainly be re-elected even if the other three states flip Republican.


Again the key phrase is "as of now" of course.

Wait and see as always. It's still a long way to go until Election Day, and anything and everything is possible in politics.

Last Edit: 2012-08-10 @ 00:46:56

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-10 @ 15:39:10 prediction Map
Well the Olympics doldrums have not been kind to either candidate as Obama's negatives have risen but Romney's polls have declined...

With the GOP VP pick and their convention look to a bump to ROmney where he is maybe ahead a point or two....then we have September and Oabama's convention and his smaller bump to be ahead a point maybe...

then it rides on the debates...

as of now I am toying with voting Libertarian but in MN it does not really matter...of course a pick of Pawlenty awful will drive me to Obama quickly...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 85 2 401T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 36 2T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 63 0 63T
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 167 1 74T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 21 7 117T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 16 0 50T
P 2007 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 4 27 135T
Aggregate Predictions 190/200 136/200 326/400 81.5% pie


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