Home 2012 Election Results Election Info Weblog Forum Wiki Search Email Login Site Info Store
PredictionsNewsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) ForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Advertisements

History Posters!
US Army


Election and History Posters from History Shots!
Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed




 Date of Prediction: 2012-08-04 Version:30

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos63
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election
Obama-D wins by a margin over 20 percent.
DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,and CA-55=142ev
Obama-D wins by a margin between 15-20 percent.
ME-4,CT-7,WA-12,and NJ-14=179ev
Obama-D wins by a margin between 10-15 percent.
MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7=201ev.
Obama-D wins by a margin between 5-10 percent.
PA-20(221ev)
MI-16(237ev)
WI-10(247ev)
Obama-D victory is NV-6 and OH-18=271ev.
Obama-D victory is NH-4,CO-9,and VA-13=273ev
Obama-D victory is FL-29=276ev
Obama-D victory is NV-6,NH-4,IA-6,and CO-9.
Romney-R will win all of the McCain states plus IN-11 and possibly NC-15.(206ev).


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-04 @ 11:39:25 prediction Map
10:00PM ET.
Obama-D has won DC-3,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,ME-4,CT-7,NJ-14,and NM-5=113ev.
plus he has a strong lead and is about to be declared a winner in MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20=169ev.
Obama-D is polling above the margin of error in NH-4 and CO-9=182ev.
VA-13,OH-18,FL-29,and NC-15 has not been called even though Obama-D is ahead in OH-18 and VA-13.
Polls just closed in IA-6 and NV-6- Obama-D is likely to carry both of those states=194 ev.
CA-55,WA-12,OR-7,and HI-4 have not been called yet. This is a perfect time for Romney to concede otherwise he would have to rely on IA-6,NV-6,and OR-7.
Another scenario is NH-4 and CO-9 are too close to call but Obama-D has been declared a winner in OH-18 and VA-13=200ev. .
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-04 @ 17:11:03 prediction Map
2012 Presidential,US Senate,and Governors Race.
7pm ET
GA-16(Romney-R)
IN-11(Romney-R)27ev
IN Senate(Mourdock-R)38R
IN Governor(Pence-R)
KY-8(Romney-R)35ev
SC-9(Romney-R)44ev
VT-3(Obama-D)
VT Senate(Sanders-I/D)31D
VT Governor(Shumlin-D)
VA-13(Obama-D)16ev
VA Senate(Kaine-D)32D
7:30PM ET
OH-18(Obama-D)34ev
OH Senate(Brown-D)33D
WV-5(Romney-R)49ev
WV Senate(Manchin-D)34D
WV Governor(Tomblin-D)
8:00PM ET
AL-9(Romney-R)58ev
CT-7(Obama-D)41ev
CT Senate(Murphy-D)35D
DE-3(Obama-D)44ev
DE Senate(Carper-D)36D
DE Governor(Markell-D)
FL-29(Romney-R)87ev
FL Senate(Nelson-D)37D
IL-20(Obama-D)64ev
ME-4(Obama-D)68ev
ME Senate(King-I/D)38D
MD-10(Obama-D)78ev
MD Senate(Cardin-D)39D
MA-11(Obama-D)89ev
MA Senate(Warren-D)40D
MS-6(Romney-R)93ev
MS Senate(Wicker-R)39R
MO-10(Romney-R)103ev
MO Senate(Brunner-R)40R
MO Governor(Nixon-D)
NH-4(Obama-D)93ev
NH Governor(Lamontagne-R)-1D/+1R
NJ-14(Obama-D)107ev
NJ Senate(Menendez-D)41D
OK-7(Romney-R)110ev
PA-20(Obama-D)127ev
PA Senate(Casey-D)42D
TN-11(Romney-R)121ev
TN Senate(Corker-R)41R
DC-3(Obama-D)130ev
8:30PM ET
AR-6(Romney-R)127ev
NC-15(Romney-R)142ev
NC Governor(McCrory-R)-2D/+2R
9:00PM ET
AZ-11(Romney-R)153ev
AZ Senate(Flake-R)42R
CO-9(Obama-D)139ev
KS-6(Romney-R)159ev
LA-8(Romney-R)167ev
MI-16(Obama-D)155ev
MI Senate(Stabenow-D)43D
MN-10(Obama-D)165ev
MN Senate(Klobuchar-D)44D
NE-5(Romney-R)172ev
NE Senate(Fischer-R)43R
NM-5(Obama-D)170ev
NM Senate(Heinrich-D)45D
NY-29(Obama-D)199ev
NY Senate(Gillibrand-D)46D
RI-4(Obama-D)203ev
RI Senate(Whitehouse-D)47D
SD-3(Romney-R)175ev
TX-38(Romney-R)213ev
TX Senate(Cruz-R)44R
WI-10(Obama-D)213ev
WI Senate(Baldwin-D)48D
WY-3(Romney-R)216ev
WY Senate(Barrasso-R)45R
Obama-D is the winner in VA-13,OH-18,NH-4,and CO-9 but is trailing in FL-29 and NC-15= 213ev. Romney-R needs to contest the results in VA-13,OH-18,NH-4,and CO-9 plus win remaining NV-6 and IA-6.
10:00PM ET
IA-6(Obama-D)219ev
MT-3(Romney-R)219ev
MT US Senate(Rehberg-R)46R
MT Governor(Bullock-D)
NV-6(Obama-D)225ev
NV Senate(Heller-R)47R
UT-6(Romney-R)225ev
UT Senate(Hatch-R)48R
UT Governor(Herbert-R)
11:00PM ET
CA-55(Obama-D)280ev (Romney-R contests VA-13 and OH-18)=249ev.
CA Senate(Feinstein-D)49D
HI-4(Obama-D)253ev(284ev)
HI Senate(Hirono-D)50D
ID-4(Romney-R)229ev
ND-3(Romney-R)232ev
ND Senate(Berg-R)49R
ND Governor(Dalrymple-R)
OR-7(Obama-D)260ev(291ev)
WA-12(Obama-D)272ev
WA US Senate(Cantwell-D)51D
WA Governor(Inslee-D)
The odds of Romney-R winning both VA-13 and OH-18 are slim to none. Romney-R now has to contest NH-4,CO-9,NV-6,and IA-6. The odds of Romney-R winning all 4 of those states are also slim to none.
AK-3(Romney-R)235ev
Regarding the US Senate.
If Donnelly(D-IN),Kaine(D-VA),Nelson(D-FL),Warren(D-MA),and Baldwin(D-WI)win. Democrats keep the majority in the US Senate regardless of what happens in MT,NV,and ND.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-04 @ 17:33:15 prediction Map
Regarding the US Senate.
Republicans are going to win
MO(Brunner-R or Steelman-R)45R
NV(Heller-R)46R
Democrats are going to win
FL(Nelson-D)48D
VA(Kaine-D)49D
MA(Warren-D)50D
WI(Baldwin-D)51D. Republican opponent is more likely to be Hovde-R or Neumann-R and less likely to be Thompson-R.
That leaves us
IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-D),MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R),and ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R).
Freshman US Senate Class will be
1)AZ(Flake-R)
2)CT(Murphy-D)
3)HI(Hirono-D)
4)IN(Donnelly-D)
5)ME(King-I)
6)MA(Warren-D)
7)MO(Brunner-R)
8)MT(Rehberg-R)
9)NE(Fischer-R)
10)NM(Heinrich-D)
11)ND(Heitkamp-D)
12)TX(Cruz-R)
13)VA(Kaine-D)
14)WI(Baldwin-D)
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-04 @ 17:48:56 prediction Map
Regarding the Romney saga-
We need a Federal Constitional Amendment-taking away the personal(financial)privacy rights of individuals who commit fraud against the public(tax evasion,insider trading,etc).
If a Presidential candidate of any political party wants to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states- he must release his federal income tax returns during the last 5 years to the State Election Boards in all 50 states regardless of whether or not he or she writes a 1,000 plus check to the FEC or state election board.
Political candidates for federal office ie (President,US Senate,US -personal(financial)privacy is suspended until they drop out or the campaign has ended.
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 01:30:05 prediction Map
When it comes to abortion,gay activities, personal drug and alchohol consumption, the conservative right argues that individual right to privacy does not exist but a wealthy person's personal finances is protected under the privacy clause.
The right to privacy of individuals who make over 1,000,000 and pay a tax rate below 25 percent should be forfeited.
Regarding the 2012 Presidential race.
Romney's EV floor is 191ev(likely victory in AZ-11,GA-16,IN-11,MO-10,MT-3,and SC-9).
Romney's EV ceiling is 266ev(Romney-R wins NC-15,VA-13,FL-29,and OH-18).
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 01:52:38 prediction Map
For those who admire and respect George Romney, I have zero respect for George Romney for not sending his son Willard to military school/boot camp or not doing what Red Foreman does to his son Eric Foreman.

Last Edit: 2012-08-05 @ 02:05:37
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-05 @ 09:59:17 prediction Map
I feel Ohio might be one state where Obama does better this time around nd there will be a few in the south that way too though it will not matter...

both sides are not over enthusiastic for their candidates but hatred or fear of the opponent will motivate many this cycle!
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 15:34:17 prediction Map
Obama-D has solid(double digit lead)in the states Kerry won in 2004 by a high single digit margin(ME-4,WA-12,and NJ-14)=179ev.
Obama-D will win those states by at least a 10 percent margin.
Obama-D is favored(high single to low double digit lead)in states Kerry narrowly won or lost but Obama-D won by a double digit margin.(NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,PA-20,WI-10,and NV-6). Obama-D will win those states by a 5-10 percent margin.(253ev).
NV-6 and IA-6(Polls close 10pm ET). The winner in both of those states will not be projected after midnight.
Obama-D is at 247ev(including CA-55,HI-4,OR-7,and WA-12-states which polls close at 11pm ET and NM-5,MN-10,MI-16,PA-20,and WI-10=Democratic leaning battleground states).
Obama-D is likely to be a projected winner in OH-18 and NH-4=giving him 269ev.
FL-29 and VA-13 are too close to call.
CO-9 is too soon to project.
IA-6 and NV-6- vote count is starting.
Romney-R must hope for a victory in CO-9,NV-6,and IA-6 just for an electoral college Tie.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home

Ad: History Posters! - History of the Union Army


Election and History Posters from History Shots!
Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed

© David Leip 2012 All Rights Reserved