Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Election Data

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-04 Version:71

Prediction Map
d-russ Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
d-russ Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	221
Rep	317
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	186
Rep	182
Ind	0
Tos	170

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-9	-1	-138	20	2	221	-138
Rep	+9	+1	+138	0	0	0	22	2	179	+138
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Mitt Romney(R) 53%
Barack Obama(D) 45%
Gary Johnson(L) 1%
Other 1%

Demographics

Sex
Women 53%- Obama 50%-Romney 49%
Men 47%- Romney 57%-Obama 39%

Race
White 76%- Romney 63%-Obama 35%
Black 12%- Obama 92%-Romney 7%
Hispanic 9%- Obama 65%-Romney 33%
Asian 2%- Obama 58%-Romney 40%
Other 1%- Obama 64%-Romney 34%

Age
18-29 16%- Obama 56%-Romney 41%
30-44 28%- Romney 51%-Obama 47%
45-64 31%- Romney 53%-Obama 45%
65+ 25%- Romney 62%-Obama 37%

Income
$30,000 or less 18%- Obama 60%-Romney 39%
$30,000-$49,999 18%- Obama 51%-Romney 47%
$50,000-$99,999 37%- Romney 54%-Obama 44%
$100,000 or more 27%- Romney 67%-Obama 32%

Party
Independent 35%- Romney 54%-Obama 45%
Democrat 33%- Obama 84%-Romney 15%
Republican 31%- Romney 95%-Obama 4%

Ideology
Conservative 42%- Romney 92%-Obama 7%
Moderate 34%- Obama 56%-Romney 43%
Liberal 23%- Obama 96%-Romney 3%

UNION HOUSEHOLD
No 78%- Romney 57%-Obama 42%
Yes 22%- Obama 56%-Romney 43%

Homosexual
No 96%- Romney 55%-Obama 43%
Yes 4%- Obama 91%-Romney 8%

Tea Party
Oppose 60%- Obama 73%-Romney 26%
Support 38%- Romney 97%-Obama 2%

Occupy
Oppose 70%- Romney 74%-Obama 25%
Support 28%- Obama 96%-Romney 3%

Obama Job Approval
Approve 43%- Obama 74%-Romney 25%
Disapprove 56%- Romney 79%-Obama 20%

Religion
Protestant 38%- Romney 50%-Obama 47%
Catholic 28%- Romney 50%-Obama 47%
Evangelical 27%- Romney 83%-Obama 15%
Jewish 3%- Obama 67%-Romney 32%
Atheist 1%- Obama 88%-Romney 8%
Mormon 1%- Romney 86%-Obama 12%
Other 1%- Obama 78%-Romney 19%

Size of Place
Big cities 10%- Obama 65%-Romney 33%
Small cities 19% Obama 51%-Romney 46%
Suburbs 49%- Romney 54%-Obama 44%
Small towns 7%- Romney 67%-Obama 31%
Rural areas 14%- Romney 70%-Obama 29%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: SupersonicVenue (R-GBR) 2012-08-05 @ 20:16:54
It's refreshing to see a map showing a solid Romney victory! Though I have to say, Michigan before Wisconsin is a, bold, prediction.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-05 @ 22:32:10
Agree with the above.

By: d-russ (R-OH) 2012-08-06 @ 16:30:14
This map is based on what would happen today. I feel that romney has a chance at winning more states than this. He could win Wisconsin New Mexico Nevada and Minnesota. In Order to win New Mexico and Nevada he will have to better among Hispanic voters. He will need to get at least 37% of Hispanic voters.

By: me (I-GA) 2012-08-06 @ 20:06:41
Gallup has shown a steady decrease in Hispanic support for Obama over the last couple months, so it could happen.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-07 @ 09:11:32
This looks like a good map, though I agree with an earlier commenter that Romney is more likely to win Wisconsin than Michigan.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-07 @ 16:33:09
A possible map but I think Michigan will stay with Obama but WI might not as stated by whyterain who I would agree with in this moment.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	48/56	28/56	76/112	67.9%	84	5	702	T
2012 Senate	25/33	13/33	38/66	57.6%	27	3	283	T
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	3	43	131	T
2012 Rep Primary	40/52	20/52	60/104	57.7%	57	-	41	T
2011 Governor	3/4	2/4	5/8	62.5%	3	14	37	T
2010 Senate	31/37	17/37	48/74	64.9%	48	1	265	T
2010 Governor	31/37	18/37	49/74	66.2%	41	2	179	T
2008 President	48/56	21/56	69/112	61.6%	4	12	1031	T
Aggregate Predictions	235/286	125/286	360/572	62.9%