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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-05 Version:31

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos63
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-1-1-12282347-12
Rep+1+1+12000222179+12
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
States that Obama-D will win by a margin greater than 17.5 percent.
DC-3(90-8)
HI-4(66-32)7
VT-3(65-33)10
RI-4(64-34)14
NY-29(63-35)43
MA-11(62-36)54
MD-10(61-37)64
IL-20(60-38)84
DE-3(59-39)87
CA-55(58-40)142
States that Obama-D will win by a margin between 12.5-17.5 percent.
CT-7(57-40)149
ME-4(57-41)153
WA-12(56-41)165
NJ-14(56-42)179
NM-5(55-42)184
States that Obama-D will win by a margin between 7.5-12.5 percent
MN-10(55-43)194
OR-7(54-43)201
WI-10(54-44)211
MI-16(53-44)227
PA-20(53-45)247
States that Obama-D will win by a margin between 2.5-7.5 percent
NV-6(52-45)253
NH-4(52-46)257
IA-6(51-46)263
CO-9(51-47)272
OH-18(50-47)290
States that Obama-D will win by a margin between 0-2.5 percent.
VA-13(50-48)303
FL-29(49-48)332
NC-15(49-49)347
States that Romney-R will win by a margin between 5-10 percent.
MO-10(51-46)
IN-11(52-46)21
AZ-11(52-45)32
GA-16(53-45)48
SC-9(53-44)57
States that Romney-R will win by a margin between 10-15 percent.
MT-3(54-44)60
TX-38(54-43)98
SD-3(55-43)101
MS-6(55-42)107
ND-3(56-42)110
States that Romney-R will win by a margin between 15-20 percent.
WV-5(56-41)115
TN-11(57-41)126
KY-8(57-40)134
KS-6(58-40)140
NE-5(58-39)145
States that Romney-R will win by a margin over 20 percent.
LA-8(59-39)153
AK-3(60-38)156
AR-6(61-37)162
ID-4(62-36)166
AL-9(63-35)175
WY-3(64-34)178
OK-7(65-33)185
UT-6(66-32)191


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 09:58:49 prediction Map
Obama-D wins the Kerry states (NH-4,PA-20,WI-10,and MI-16)plus Southwest battleground states (NM-5,NV-6,and CO-9)and the Tossup Midwestern states(IA-6 and OH-18)=290ev
Obama-D has a 50-50 chance of winning the battleground Southern states (VA-13,NC-15,and FL-29).
Romney-R does not win anything outside of the McCain States plus IN-11.

Last Edit: 2012-08-05 @ 10:02:41

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 14:45:33 prediction Map
2004-2008-2012.
States Bush-R and/or McCain-R won in 2004 and 2008 by a double digit margin.
(AL-9,AK-3,AZ-11,AR-6,GA-16,ID-4,IN-11,KS-6,KY-8,LA-8,MS-6,MT-3,NE-5,NC-15,ND-3,OK-7,SC-9,SD-3,TN-11,TX-38,UT-6,WV-5,and WY-3)=196ev.(Romney-R will win those states by at least a 5 percent margin.)
States that Bush-R won in 2004 by a high single digit margin.
(MO-10,VA-13,and FL-29)=52ev(248ev)-Romney-R wins those states by a narrow to high single digit margin.
States that Bush-R won in 2004 by a narrow margin.
(CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,NM-5,and OH-18).
NV-6 and NM-5 were the two Bush states- Obama-D won by a double digit margin. Obama-D will win NM-5 in 2012 by a double digit margin,NV-6 by a high single digit margin,and CO-9 by a narrow margin.
Romney's guide to victory is winning OH-18 and IA-6- he must win both of those states to win. It looks like Obama-D is going to carry OH-18 and most likely IA-6.
States Kerry-D won by a narrow margin.
(MI-16,MN-10,NH-4,OR-7,PA-20,and WI-10).
Obama-D will win thoses states by at least a 5 percent margin.
States Kerry-D won by at least a 5 percent margin.
(NJ-14,WA-12,ME-4,CA-55,CT-7,DE-3,IL-20,MD-10,MA-11,NY-29,RI-4,VT-3,HI-4,and DC-3)
Obama-D wins those states by a double digit margin.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 21:18:47 prediction Map
By 10-11pm ET.
FL-29,OH-18,NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9 are too close to call.
Obama-D has been the projected winner in VT-3,CT-7,DE-3,DC-3,IL-20,ME-4,MD-10,MA-11,NJ-14,MN-10,NM-5,NY-29,and RI-4=123ev
Obama-D has a decent lead in NH-4,PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10=173ev.
Romney-R has been the projected winner in GA-16,IN-11,KY-8,SC-9,WV-5,AL-9,MS-6,MO-10,OK-7,TN-11,AR-6,AZ-11,KS-6,LA-8,NE-5,SD-3,TX-38,and WY-3=172ev.
Votes are starting to be counted in IA-6,MT-3,NV-6,ND-3,and UT-6.
Romney-R is expected to win MT-3,ND-3,and UT-6=184ev.
Obama-D is expected to win IA-6 and NV-6=185ev
Between 11-11:30 PM.
Obama-D becomes a winner in CO-9 and OH-18=212ev
Romney-R becomes a winner in NC-15,VA-13,and FL-29=241ev
Romney-R is expected to win ID-4 and AK-3=248ev

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-05 @ 22:07:07 prediction Map
On December 2012, President Obama should send the chairman of the RNC a gift.
They allowed Romney-R to win the nomination because he was seen as more electable than Gingrich,Santorum,and Perry.
Romney-R tax return controversy starts in late July early August along with the gaffes during his trip oversees- This is couple weeks before the convention. Romney-R gets a minor bounce. Obama-D recieves a bounce after his convention in September. September to October- debates.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-06 @ 01:46:59 prediction Map
2012 US Presidential Election.
On November 6 2012, Obama-D is projected to recieve 253ev(NV-6,WI-10,MI-16,PA-20,OR-7,MN-10,and NM-5), Romney-R is projected to receive 206ev(NC-15,MO-10,GA-16,AZ-11,SC-9,IN-11,and MT-3)
Up for grabs (NH-4,CO-9,OH-18,IA-6,VA-13,and FL-29).
OH-18 is too close to call- if OH is called early for Obama-D the election is over.
FL-29 is a must win Romney-R state.
VA-13 is another state that is too close to call but Obama-D has a better chance of winning that state than FL-29.
That leaves CO-9,IA-6,and NH-4.
Obama-D is likely to win NH-4 and CO-9, and IA-6 .
An Obama-D victory in FL-29 means Romney-R has to win NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,CO-9,VA-13,OH-18 plus WI-10.(Kerry state Romney/RNC will target- Tossup US Senate race unlike PA-20 and MI-16)
Obama-D will win WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20-the question is how close is his margin of victory in those 3 states. Obama-D is the likely winner in NM-5,OR-7,and MN-10.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 Senate /34 /34 /68 % pie
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 145/161 105/161 250/322 77.6% pie



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