Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-06 Version:32

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	247
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	100

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Solid Obama-D(DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,IL-20,NY-29,MD-10,DE-3,CA-55,and MA-11)=142ev.
Likely Obama-D(ME-4,WA-12,CT-7,and NJ-14)=37ev(179ev)
Lean Obama-D(NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,WI-10,and PA-20)=68ev(247ev)
Tossup Obama-D(NV-6,NH-4,and OH-18)
Tossup Obama-D(IA-6,CO-9,and VA-13)
Tossup Obama-D(FL-29)
Lean Romney-R(NC-15,and MO-10)=25ev
Likely Romney-R(MT-3,AZ-11,IN-11,GA-16,and SC-9)=50ev(75ev)
Solid Romney-R(SD-3,ND-3,TX-38,WV-5,TN-11,AR-6,KY-8,MS-6,LA-8,AK-3,NE-5,KS-6,AL-9,OK-7,ID-4,WY-3,and UT-6)=131ev(206ev)

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-07 @ 00:12:37
Romney-R wins the McCain States(AZ-11,AR-6,KY-8,LA-8,MO-10,TN-11,and WV-5)=180ev The Dole States(CO-9,IN-11,NC-15,and VA-13)=228ev Obama-D wins the Kerry States(NH-4)=246ev The Gore States(NM-5 and IA-6)=257ev NV-6,OH-18,and FL-29 are the real Tossup states. Obama-D wins NV-6=263ev Romney-R wins FL-29=257ev On Election day- Obama-D is ahead in OH-18.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-07 @ 02:27:19
Romney's runningmate should be Larry Craig.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-07 @ 08:39:05
Any prediction that Obama will win more than 330 EVs is also a prediction that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House again. Btw, since Tea Party views are banned in the forum and since few there will know about this story (not a peep yet in the MSM), could someone tell them that a D.C. judge has found that DOJ lawyers lied under oath about the Black Panthers Voter Intimidation Case?

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-07 @ 10:22:26
330 plus ev is Obama-D ceiling. Obama-D loses IN-11 by a 10 point margin. Obama-D loses NC-15 by a 5 point margin. FL-29,VA-13,CO-9,IA-6,and NH-4 are a statistical tie. Obama-D wins PA-20,MI-16,MN-10,OR-7,and NM-5 by a 5-10 percent margin. Obama-D narrowly wins outside the margin of error- WI-10,NV-6,and OH-18.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-07 @ 12:08:41
As I have said elsewhere, this election was over nearly a year ago. You must be paying a lot of attention to polls that use D+11 and D+19 sample pools.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-07 @ 16:20:21
2012 US Presidential Election. DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,and DE-3-Obama-D wins those states by a margin over 25 percent.(17ev) Obama-D wins by a margin between 15-25 percent. NY-29(25 percent)46ev MD-10(22.5 percent)56ev CA-55(20 percent)111ev MA-11(17.5 percent)122ev IL-20(15 percent)142ev Obama-D wins by a 10-15 percent margin. NJ-14(14 percent)156ev WA-12(13 percent)168ev ME-4(12 percent)172ev CT-7(11 percent)179ev NM-5(10 percent)184ev Obama-D wins by a 5-10 percent margin. MN-10(9 percent)194ev OR-7(8 percent)201ev WI-10(7 percent)211ev MI-16(6 percent)227ev PA-20(5 percent)247ev Obama-D wins by a 0-5 percent margin. NV-6(4 percent)253ev NH-4(3 percent)257ev IA-6(2 percent)263ev CO-9(1 percent)272ev Regarding OH-18,VA-13,and FL-29. Obama-D loses FL-29,(OH-18 and VA-13) are a statistical tie.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T
Aggregate Predictions	83/89	64/89	147/178	82.6%

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