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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-08 Version:34

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem282
 
Rep256
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem247
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos100
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-77232282-77
Rep+6+1+77000222179+77
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D is strongly favored to win (DC-3,HI-4,NY-29,VT-3,RI-4,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,MA-11,CA-55,ME-4,NJ-14,CT-7,and WA-12)=179ev(Obama-D wins those states by a double digit margin.
Obama-D needs another 91ev to get to the 270ev mark.
Obama-D is favored to win (NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20)=68ev(247ev). Obama-D wins those states by a high single digit margin.
Another 23 ev puts Obama-D at the 270ev mark.
(NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,and CO-9)=25ev(272ev)
or
(VA-13 and OH-18)=31ev(278ev)
or
(FL-29)=276ev.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-08 @ 11:45:12 prediction Map
Battleground states such as NV-6,IA-6,and CO-9- polls close after 9pm ET- the winner in those states will not be declared after 11pm ET.
The west coast states Obama-D is expected to win=78ev(CA-55,WA-12,OR-7,and HI-4).
The number of electoral votes Obama-D recieves before 11pm ET plus another 78ev is whether Obama-D recieves over 270ev.
Starting at 7pm ET.- Obama-D wins ( VT-3,DC-3,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,MA-11,ME-4,NJ-14,CT-7,NY-29,RI-4,PA-20,NM-5,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,VA-13,and OH-18). 200ev If Obama-D victory in VA-13 and OH-18 stands after the returns are being displayed on Election day,- He does not have to worry about (NH-4,CO-9,IA-6,and NV-6).
Obama-D will win NV-6=175ev
Obama-D will win NH-4=179ev
Obama-D will win VA-13=192ev
Add 78ev=270ev for Obama-D.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-08 @ 14:40:57 prediction Map
VA-13,OH-18,FL-29,NH-4,and NC-15 are must win states for Romney-R. Romney-R must be declared a winner in all 5 of those states to be the likely winner on Election day.
If Obama-D fails to win any one of those states. He must rely on CO-9,NV-6,and IA-6- but he will end up with 268ev(Obama-D is favored to win NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20).
Obama-D will win all of the Kerry States including NH-4,PA-20,WI-10,and MI-16=246ev plus NM-5 and NV-6(Southwestern Battleground States-Bush43 won by a narrow margin but Obama-D won by a double digit margin)=257ev
Obama-D now has to rely on either VA-13 or OH-18 to be declared the winner. CO-9 and IA-6 only become necessary for Obama-D if Obama-D is trailing in VA-13,OH-18,or FL-29.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-08 @ 15:05:17 prediction Map
Romney-R is favored to win(UT-6,WY-3,ID-4,OK-7,AL-9,AK-3,NE-5,KS-6,AR-6,LA-8,KY-8,TN-11,MS-6,WV-5,TX-38,ND-3,SD-3,MT-3,SC-9,GA-16,IN-11,AZ-11,and MO-10)= 191ev.
Romney-R is in a statistical tie race in must win states(NC-15 and FL-29)= If Romney-R wins both of those states= 235ev.
Looking at Battleground states(OH-18,VA-13,CO-9,IA-6,NH-4,and NV-6)-RCP average polls that show Obama-D leading outside the MOE are in (VA-13,NH-4,OH-18,and NV-6).
Obama-D is likely to win NV-6(253ev).
Lets give Romney-R CO-9 and IA-6-He is at 250ev. Romney-R must win OH-18-to stand a chance of winning.=268ev.
Obama-D will have to hope for a victory in VA-13 and NH-4.
States like NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20 are in the Lean Obama-D category.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-08 @ 15:43:40 prediction Map
Looking at the 2012 US Senate Election Race.
Democrats are strongly favored to win
VT-Sanders,ME-King,DE-Carper,MD-Cardin,NY-Gillibrand,MN-Klobuchar,RI-Whitehouse,CA-Feinstein,WV-Manchin,PA-Casey,WA-Cantwell,and NJ-Menendez)42D
Democrats are favored to win(HI-Hirono-D,MI-Stabenow,CT-Murphy,OH-Brown,and NM-Heinrich)47D
Democrats are slightly favored to win(WI-Baldwin,VA-Kaine,and MA-Warren)=50D. Baldwin(D-WI)-Republican opponent is going to be either Neumann-R or Hovde-R. Warren(D-MA)is going to benefit from Obama-D coattails-in her narrow victory against Brown-R. VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)is going be a repeat of the 2006 race minus Macaca.
The Tossup US Senate Races are
FL(Nelson-D vs Mack-R)
IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R)
MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R)
MO(McCaskill-D vs Akin-R)
NV(Berkley-D vs Heller-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R)
Nelson(D-FL) wins based on incumbency advantage and the tossup Presidential Race occuring in FL.- 51D.


 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-08 @ 16:52:30 prediction Map
Romney-R first ran for elected office in 1994(MA US Senate)-sacrificial lamb Republican challenger against Kennedy-D. Romney-R recieved 41 percent to Kennedy-D 58 percent.
Romney-R disappeared from politics as he should have.
1996-MA other US Senate(Kerry-D faced then popular Governor Weld-R)-Kerry-D defeated Weld-R due to Clinton coattails.
1997/1998-Weld-R resigned from the Governorship to become Ambassador to Mexico but Jesse Helms-the US Senate's Joe Arpaio was making it impossible.- Celluci-R took over the MA Governorship-won a first term in 1998-over State AG Scott Harshbarger.-Celluci-R (Moderate Republican-Fiscal Conservative/Social Liberal). In 2001/2002- Cellucci-R became Ambassador to Canada- Swift-R took over the MA Governorship. During the 2002 MA Governors Race- During the 2002 MA Governors Race- Swift-R was damaged goods- she was going to lose to any of the Democratic candidates-(O'Brien-D or Reich-D). The MA Republican Party picked Romney-R as the viable alternative to Swift-R. Romney-R narrowly defeated O'Brien-D in 2002. Romney-R won by a 4.83 percent margin.
Romney-R decided not to seek re-election in 2006 because he was cowardly to face Patrick-D,Gabrielli-D or Reilly-D. Had Romney-R lost to O'Brien-D in 2002- He would not have been a viable candidate for President in 2008 or 2012.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-09 @ 06:20:28 prediction Map
I still find Iowa for Obama by what some of the people I meet tell me. They find ROmney surprisingly unpopular. But a correct VP choice would have your map very accurate. Along way to go towards the election...

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-09 @ 08:51:09 prediction Map
Re. the Senate: I have said in the recent past that "if everything breaks for the GOP, then they net +7 (lead Senate 54-46); if everything breaks for the Dems, then it's only +3 (Senate 50-50)".

Right now, it looks like the GOP will be doing well to be +3. If that happens, I hope McConnell will be voted out as party leader. Well, I hope he'll be voted out period.

[modify:] Re-electing McConnell after such a bad result would be the GOP equivalent of the Dems re-electing Pelosi after 2010 (GOP +63).

Last Edit: 2012-08-09 @ 08:53:29

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-09 @ 11:00:42 prediction Map
I would have to agree with you, some states like Arizona, Indiana are in play when they should not be and states like ND, Montana and FLorida and Virginia could go either way. Wisconsin sees the DEMs reemerging and having a shot to retain no matter who the GOP nominate. Hard to believe as they should be losing the senate to the GOP this round soundly.

I have not found MCConnell effective in anything except retaining his seat. Sad.
We should be governing for solutions not road blocks to even the simpliest court nomination. Federal judiciary is 25% under staffed thanks to vote no GOP even on moderate judges for no other reason than saying no to Obama. hate to be in court on the federal level these days!

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-09 @ 11:18:07 prediction Map
Battleground states such as CO-9,IA-6,and NV-6 only become relevent for Obama-D if he loses FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13.
Before 10pm ET Obama-D favored states such as (ME-4,VT-3,MA-11,RI-4,CT-7,NY-29,PA-20,NJ-14,DE-3,MD-10,DC-3,IL-20,MN-10,and NM-5)will be called.= 143ev.
Between 10pm-11pm ET- Obama-D favored battleground States in (NH-4,MI-16,and WI-10)will be called.= 30ev(173ev)
After 11pm ET(Obama-favored States of WA-12,OR-7,CA-55,and HI-4)are going to be called= 78ev(251ev)
winning CO-9,IA-6,and NV-6 gives Obama-D another 21ev(272ev).- Obama-D wins NV-6(257ev). and IA-6(263ev).
OH-18 will be called for Obama-D after NV-6 but before IA-6 (281ev).

Romney-R wins the Dole States(AL-9,AK-3,CO-9,GA-16,ID-4,IN-11,KS-6,MS-6,MT-3,NE-5,NC-15,ND-3,OK-7,SC-9,SD-3,TX-38,UT-6,VA-13,and WY-3)=169ev
plus the McCain States(AZ-11,AR-6,KY-8,LA-8,MO-10,TN-11,and WV-5)=228ev
plus FL-29(Bush41 won in 1988 and 1992,Bush43 won in 2000?? and 2004)=257ev.
Obama-D wins the Gore States(CA-55,CT-7,DE-3,DC-3,HI-4,IL-20,IA-6,ME-4,MD-10,MA-11,MI-16,MN-10,NJ-14,NM-5,NY-29,OR-7,PA-20,RI-4,VT-3,WA-12,and WI-10)=253ev.
plus NH-4(Kerry-2004)=257ev
OH-18 and NV-6= 281ev.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-09 @ 11:25:43 prediction Map
Re. the Senate again: Whichever party is smart enough to campaign against the filibuster is going to be very happy on Election Night.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-09 @ 15:57:53 prediction Map
Campaign for solutions not roadblocks -it is what the USA public wants-you are right!

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-09 @ 17:06:53 prediction Map
Regarding the US Senate.
Democratic retirements in ND and WI went from a Likely/Solid Democratic Favored-had Conrad(D-ND) or Kohl(D-WI)ran for re-election to a Lean Republican Takeover to a Tossup. In ND-Heitkamp-D turned out to be a better candidate than Berg-R. In WI-Baldwin-D is a better than expected candidate for statewide office in WI and Thompson-R is having a tough time winning the primary-and if he does win the primary-he is going to risk alienating the Independent voters that voted for him during his 1986,1990,1994 and 1998-WI Governors Race.
OPEN Republican Held Seats in IN and ME went from Solid Republican to Tossup/Lean Democratic takeover.
ME is a Democratic Pickup- Since the Likely winner(King-I)is going to caucus with the Democrats.
IN- had Lugar-R retired voluntarily and Mitch Daniels-R decided to run. Likely Republican retention.- Lugar-R decided to run for re-election-He lost in the Primary to a more conservative challenger-Mourdock-R. Mourdock-R is expected to face a credible Democratic challenger in the general Election.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 145/161 105/161 250/322 77.6% pie



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